John Smoltz is high on Tyler Wells as a starter

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Did you listen to his interview?  Sounded like he knew all about it.   He said it's about preparing as a starter and working through the issues.

And remember Smoltz was both a starter and a reliever over his time in the majors.

He has been preparing to be a starter. 

[wildcard]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He has been preparing to be a starter. 

As I said even if Wells starts the O's need to add another starter that can be at least a #4 in the playoffs. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

As I said even if Wells starts the O's need to add another starter that can be at least a #4 in the playoffs. 

But he’s a horse, Smoltz said so! Why would we need another starter for the playoffs?  

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But he’s a horse, Smoltz said so! Why would we need another starter for the playoffs?  

Even horses get tired sometimes.

[RZNJ]

John Smoltz isn’t as smart as he thinks he is.   A horse?   Historically, a pitcher called a horse is one that posts up for every start and throws a lot of innings.  Pretty sure Wells dropped weight, got in great shape, and prepared for the 2023 season.   Gotta just work through it.   He did at Bowie where he couldn’t sabotage the teams chances once he couldn’t throw strikes and was no longer effective.    If the Orioles thought this was just a minor thing there is no way they take their best starter from the first half and demote him to Bowie.  IMO, we still don’t know the whole story.

[Frobby]

I still don’t rule out that Wells could get through a full season as a starter.  I just don’t see how you can plan on it.   

[Sports Guy]

48 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Even horses get tired sometimes.

[Moose Milligan]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I still don’t rule out that Wells could get through a full season as a starter.  I just don’t see how you can plan on it.   

Yeah, I'm with this.  

Given his size, he certainly looks like he should be durable enough to get through the rigors of a full season as a starter.  But we've all watched enough baseball to know that how tall a player is and how much that player weighs doesn't always tell a full story.  

I'm fine if Wells gets a shot as a starter for next year but I do hope they have a backup plan in mind.  

While I actually kind of like Smoltz on the broadcast for the postseason games, I really think holding up what he has to say about Wells doesn't mean much of anything.  That's the thing that people on this board routinely fail to understand, people in the media at a national level are paid to know a little bit about a lot of things.  Everything they know is at a surface level, unless you're a guy like Keith Law who only focuses on something specific like minor league baseball and prospects.  And so when a national writer does a puff piece on the Orioles, people here get all out of sorts about key details and facts that were omitted, missed or just wrong.  

They're not beat writers, they're not a guy like Dan Connolly or Schmuck or whoever else is tied to the team.   So for John Smoltz to call Tyler Wells "a horse" is a bit odd.  I mean, it's easy to look at how big Tyler Wells is and come to that conclusion which seems to be exactly what he did.  

[RZNJ]

58 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Even horses get tired sometimes.

If Wells was a horse he would have been shot long ago.

[RVAOsFan]

I like our chances of signing an impact bullpen piece or two better than signing a starting pitcher better than what we have.  I think Wells / Hall / FA or AAA guy can handle the 5th spot in the rotation.

I expect Wells should build on his innings pitched last season and be able to go a little deeper into the season this year if he stays healthy.

[dystopia]

I respect Smoltz, but "horse" is definitely not the term to use for Tyler Wells.

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

You can’t be a “horse” if you can’t be reliable past 100 IP.

Yeah, we have a body of work now that suggests he doesn't have that many innings in him per year. Now if you're ok using him for half a year as a starter then move him to relief in the second half or once he starts to break down, then ok, but in no shape or form can you call Tyler Wells a "horse" when he's never made more than 23 starts in a season.

On top of it all, his 4.98 FIP and the fact he gave up 25 home runs in just 118.2 IP suggests some regression next year if he sticks as a starter. Now Wells certainly has the arsenal and the ability to get into the 6th inning often getting into the 6th inning in 13 of his 20 starts. The question is whether he can spend an entire year in the rotation? 

The only time Wells has thrown more than the 118.2 IP he threw last year was in 2018 when he threw 119.1 innings between A+ and AA. Of course he needed Tommy John after that season.

He's looks like he's built like a "horse", and he has the repertoire to be successful as a starter, but we've never seen him come close to the workload needed to be considered a "horse".

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Even horses get tired sometimes.

Literally, that's what "horses" are not supposed to do. 

That's the issue most of us have with Smoltz's analysis. He's never pitched more than 119.1 innings a a pro in any season. He's going to pitch at 29 years old next year. I don't know how anyone can expect that he will become a horse for a whole season when there is no evidence that he can.

Now do I think Wells can be an effective starter for a bit, sure. Is he a guy who you could maybe get 20 starts out of like they did this past year, perhaps.

I'll be honest though, I do not expect Elias to pick up a top starter this offseason so he very well may start next season in the Orioles rotation. It would not surprise me at all if the Orioles rotation next year is not Bradish, Rodriguez, Means, Wells and Kremer. 

Is that good enough come playoff time? I guess it depends on if Bradish takes the next step to be a TOR, Rodriguez becomes a solid #2 or starts to fulfill is TOR potential, Means can stay healthy, and Kremer and Wells can at least provide solid #4 and #5 type starts. 

 

[tntoriole]

So Tyler had Tommy John surgery with Twins in early 2019.. missed all of that season AND all of 2020 but due to COVID. 
He was picked by us in Rule 5 and pitched 57 relief innings in bigs in 2021, then 117 innings last year.  
He threw the same amount of innings for Twins in minors in 2018 as starter at age 23 just before TJ 

It is a rehabilitation question as to development of  sufficient endurance to maintain arm speed, arm slot, mechanics etc to be a starter but it would seem there is certainly an opportunity to improve that capability.  I would enhance his rehab and endurance work in winter and see how it looks.. if he runs into a similar wall again , then I would agree, he cannot be a starter 

[bpilktree67]

Every time I think of Wells a get a feeling that a good comp for him would be Charlie Morton.  Both are taller pitchers  Morton 6'5 and Wells 6'7 who had a lot of arm issues and durability in their mid to late 20s.  Morton never found his groove til he was in his 30s and only threw over 120 innings 1 times until he was 31 years of age.  Now I am not saying Wells is going to turn into Morton who has been an above pitcher for the last 5+ years in his mid 30s but their is some similarities to me and should be a guy that we have in our plans to some capacity.