Santander Speculation

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Of course he isn’t.  But I don’t think 2-3 WAR players are that easy to replace, either.  There’s certainly no guarantee that Kjerstad or Cowser will be better than Santander in 2024.  In fact, I’d say the odds are against it.  I think if you trade Santander, you have to be realistic and realize that you are probably downgrading the offense at his spot in 2024.   So, you’d better get something in exchange that makes that downgrade worthwhile.   

Let’s say, for argument’s sake, that Santander is projected to be a .780 OPS, 2.5 rWAR guy in 2024; in exchange they can get a reliever who is expected to be an 0.8 rWAR/yr guy (60 IP, 3.50 ERA) for 3 years; and that Kjerstad is projected for a .720 OPS and 1.8 rWAR in a full 2024 season.  If you make that deal, your offense will take a small hit in 2024, your bullpen will be bolstered for 3 years, and maybe by 2025 Kjerstad is about as good as Santander has been the last couple of years.   So, it’s an interesting call.  
 

First of all, it’s so annoying that people keep saying “there is no guarantee…”.  No sh**!  There is also no guarantee that Santander will be healthy. There is no guarantee about a lot of stuff. This isn’t something that needs to keep being said. It’s obvious. (Sorry, this is becoming a pet peeve)

Secondly, my overall plan is to greatly upgrade the pitching staff, which allows for some offensive fallback, if that happens.

 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

First of all, it’s so annoying that people keep saying “there is no guarantee…”.  No sh**!  There is also no guarantee that Santander will be healthy. There is no guarantee about a lot of stuff. This isn’t something that needs to keep being said. It’s obvious. (Sorry, this is becoming a pet peeve.)

 

Fair enough.  I did go on to say, “in fact, I think the odds are against it.”   Not sure everyone would agree with me on that.  But I think the scenario I described is about the most likely of the million possible scenarios.  

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Fair enough.  I did go on to say, “in fact, I think the odds are against it.”   Not sure everyone would agree with me on that.  But I think the scenario I described is about the most likely of the million possible scenarios.  

I don’t think that’s unfair.

I just happen to believe in this group of guys a lot but I also think it’s fair to say that you can believe in the group as a whole while also saying that any single player could fail.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t think that’s unfair.

I just happen to believe in this group of guys a lot but I also think it’s fair to say that you can believe in the group as a whole while also saying that any single player could fail.

With me, it’s more a question of how quickly they will succeed.  

[baltfan]

10 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Should probably move both … Hays is a product of the other management team. He’s a low OBP guy and probably isn’t getting any better than this year. So his value is in the 2 years of remaining control. Mullins is also a free agent in the same period but was still a 2.8 war player despite his struggle with injuries and streaky traits. Plus I don’t think we currently don’t have his replacement at or nearly ready for CF. If Kjerstad and Cowser can handle LF and RF defensively it’s time to move+on from Santander and Hays. 

No. Move one first.  Odds are on of the rookies will struggle.  This team is a contender.  Don’t blow it with lack of depth 

[Hallas]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

First of all, it’s so annoying that people keep saying “there is no guarantee…”.  No sh**!  There is also no guarantee that Santander will be healthy. There is no guarantee about a lot of stuff. This isn’t something that needs to keep being said. It’s obvious. (Sorry, this is becoming a pet peeve)

Secondly, my overall plan is to greatly upgrade the pitching staff, which allows for some offensive fallback, if that happens.

 

 

You better be getting some serious dogs for the pitching staff if thats the case, because year-over-year variation in pitching performance is far greater than for hitting.

 

Your point about "there's no guarantee" is well taken but I don't think its crazy to say that the error bars on Kjerstad's or Cowser's performance are a lot higher than for Santander, who also provides platoon advantages.

[wildcard]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

Of course he isn’t.  But I don’t think 2-3 WAR players are that easy to replace, either.  There’s certainly no guarantee that Kjerstad or Cowser will be better than Santander in 2024.  In fact, I’d say the odds are against it.  I think if you trade Santander, you have to be realistic and realize that you are probably downgrading the offense at his spot in 2024.   So, you’d better get something in exchange that makes that downgrade worthwhile.   

Let’s say, for argument’s sake, that Santander is projected to be a .780 OPS, 2.5 rWAR guy in 2024; in exchange they can get a reliever who is expected to be an 0.8 rWAR/yr guy (60 IP, 3.50 ERA) for 3 years; and that Kjerstad is projected for a .720 OPS and 1.8 rWAR in a full 2024 season.  If you make that deal, your offense will take a small hit in 2024, your bullpen will be bolstered for 3 years, and maybe by 2025 Kjerstad is about as good as Santander has been the last couple of years.   So, it’s an interesting call.  
 

I can't see Elias trading Santander for a reliever unless he is an experienced closer.  

[wildcard]

6 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Secondly, my overall plan is to greatly upgrade the pitching staff, which allows for some offensive fallback, if that happens.

Can't see how the O's beat the Rangers in the playoffs with that  approach.    O's should be looking to improve the offense, defense and pitching this off season.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Can't see how the O's beat the Rangers in the playoffs with that  approach.    O's should be looking to improve the offense, defense and pitching this off season.

The intention isn’t to have a lesser offense.  However, at the end of the day, run suppression is very important and it has been argued that a run saved is worth more than a run scored.

If you upgrade the staff and the defense is above average (some stats in 2023 said the defense was below average), that can make you a more complete team.

People are really overrating Santander. He’s a solid player. Glad we have him. He also is a guy with really high highs and really low lows. His OPS by month in 2023 was good except for May. However, when you look at it, he would have 5-10 really good games and then he would be pretty awful. There was very little middle ground. I supposed that doesn’t matter at the end of the day. Production is production but the extremes can make it tough at times.

Santander, if you discount 2020(where he was bad vs lefties but in a SSS), has played 4 full ML seasons. In 2019 and 2023, he hit well from both sides.

In 2021, he was bad vs lefties and in 2022, he was mediocre at best vs righties.  I say this only to say that the switch hitting thing isn’t some guarantee that it makes him more valuable.

Many switch hitters have a better side of the plate and if in any given year, you really struggle on one side, you aren’t really that valuable just because you can stand in both batters boxes. For you to be valuable, you need to perform on both sides, like he did in 2023. It’s like saying a player is versatile because he can play multiple positions but if he plays some positions at a below average level, that versatility really doesn’t matter.

But above all of this is the simple fact that Elias has accumulated talent at a very high level And you can’t just keep leaving guys in AAA because you are afraid they can’t live up to a 2 WAR player.  We aren’t saying to replace high level AS talent here. We are talking about taking high end talent that is universally thought of as excellent and using those players instead of older guys that are 2ish WAR type players. Those aren’t bad players but they aren’t franchise changing guys either. They are replaceable.

[Aristotelian]

8 hours ago, Frobby said:

Of course he isn’t.  But I don’t think 2-3 WAR players are that easy to replace, either.  There’s certainly no guarantee that Kjerstad or Cowser will be better than Santander in 2024.  In fact, I’d say the odds are against it.  I think if you trade Santander, you have to be realistic and realize that you are probably downgrading the offense at his spot in 2024.   So, you’d better get something in exchange that makes that downgrade worthwhile.   

Let’s say, for argument’s sake, that Santander is projected to be a .780 OPS, 2.5 rWAR guy in 2024; in exchange they can get a reliever who is expected to be an 0.8 rWAR/yr guy (60 IP, 3.50 ERA) for 3 years; and that Kjerstad is projected for a .720 OPS and 1.8 rWAR in a full 2024 season.  If you make that deal, your offense will take a small hit in 2024, your bullpen will be bolstered for 3 years, and maybe by 2025 Kjerstad is about as good as Santander has been the last couple of years.   So, it’s an interesting call.  
 

A team that is looking to trade a veteran reliever is more likely to be seeking prospects than a player like Santander. Why not just trade second tier prospects to get similar return as Santander/Hays without taking any hit to the MLB team? Might someone give us similar return for some combination of, say, Norby/Wagner/Horvath/Beavers/Cook? Keep Santander, hit with QO. Then let Kjerstad/Cowser force their way into the lineup and you are "guaranteed" Santander-or-better production plus whatever pitching we'd get. And we likely get the pick compensation when Santander walks, or we get him back another year. The only downside is Santander's salary but we can handle that. 

[wildcard]

46 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

A team that is looking to trade a veteran reliever is more likely to be seeking prospects than a player like Santander. Why not just trade second tier prospects to get similar return as Santander/Hays without taking any hit to the MLB team? Might someone give us similar return for some combination of, say, Norby/Wagner/Horvath/Beavers/Cook? Keep Santander, hit with QO. Then let Kjerstad/Cowser force their way into the lineup and you are "guaranteed" Santander-or-better production plus whatever pitching we'd get. And we likely get the pick compensation when Santander walks, or we get him back another year. The only downside is Santander's salary but we can handle that. 

I like it.   I would not trade Beavers.   And I would add Stowers and Urias to the players being offered. But the concept I like.

[Jagwar]

16 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Urias or Mateo likely need to be gone by June of next year.

Mounty, Santander, Hays, Mullins, OHearn…My preference is to see 2 of them gone this offseason with my larger desire to keep Hays more than anyone on that list. Mullins is a close second.

That is a total of 3 vets that I feel need to be gone by June of 2024. That should open up plenty of ABs for the players that need to get those ABs.

I'd add in McKenna to that list, yes?

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

A team that is looking to trade a veteran reliever is more likely to be seeking prospects than a player like Santander. Why not just trade second tier prospects to get similar return as Santander/Hays without taking any hit to the MLB team? Might someone give us similar return for some combination of, say, Norby/Wagner/Horvath/Beavers/Cook? Keep Santander, hit with QO. Then let Kjerstad/Cowser force their way into the lineup and you are "guaranteed" Santander-or-better production plus whatever pitching we'd get. And we likely get the pick compensation when Santander walks, or we get him back another year. The only downside is Santander's salary but we can handle that. 

who are “WE”?

MONEY!!!! They won’t want to pay him. They won’t want to lose him and get nothing at the end of 2024 in free agency.

Their plan is to play it cheap. It’s fine to hate the approach but that what they’ve basically said. You hope they try to do extensions with Gunnar and Bradish while dealing off guys like Santander to keep the prospect funnel overflowing.You can keep telling yourself we can handle it but they don’t want to.

Edited October 31, 2023 by Roll Tide

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, wildcard said:

I can't see Elias trading Santander for a reliever unless he is an experienced closer.  

Last winter, Blue Jays traded Teoscar Hernandez (who was more highly regarded at the time than Santander is now) for non-closer reliever Erik Swanson and a lightly regarded minor leaguer.   I don’t think Santander brings you more.   Doesn’t mean the O’s need to trade him if they don’t like the return.

[RZNJ]

3 hours ago, wildcard said:

Can't see how the O's beat the Rangers in the playoffs with that  approach.    O's should be looking to improve the offense, defense and pitching this off season.

Let’s talk about the offense and defense.   We seem to be pretty set in position players.

1B Mountcastle/O’Hearn

2B Westburg

SS Henderson

3B Urias

C Rutschman

LF/CF/RF Hays/Mullins/Santander

DH revolving door

Where would you make these upgrades to the offense and defense?