How many rookies in the lineup is too many to win?

[jamalshw]

As others have said, it all depends on the rookie. If we are still counting Westburg, he had a .715 OPS which was better than Frazier and his defense was also far superior. So that replacement of vet to rookie should be a net positive rather than negative. For Urias and Mateo, I don't think the bar is all that high either...and Holliday should be able to clear it. 

As for the OF, that's a bit more of a challenge. We saw Cowser struggle so there would likely be a bigger adjustment period there and Hays was a 2.6 WAR player. Mullins had a down year and Santander isn't as good defensively, but the both produced more WAR than Hays. Expecting Cowser to jump in and give over 2 WAR is probably a stretch for an expectation in year one, though it's certainly possible. Same with Kjerstad. 

What I would like to see is an infield of Mountcastle, Holliday, Henderson and Westburg. And an OF/DH situation of: Hays, Mullins, Santander and Kjerstad. That gives you two rookies starting (3 if you count Westburg). I wouldn't have an issue if they non-tendered Mateo or moved Urias and had Ortiz also on the roster in a utility role either. 

[wildcard]

59 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

Yes.  Not everyone goes through much of an adjustment period

Adley, Gunnar, GRod and Westburg all had adjustment periods.   What O's rookie has not?

[wildcard]

57 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes of course.

Let’s go with this hypothetical:

Trade Santander and Mountcastle

Trade one of Westburg or Ortiz

Holliday goes to the minors for defense/service time..up by June 1.

Mayo, Kjerstad and Cowser make OD roster.

 

offense is this:

IFers: OHearn, Mayo, Westburg/Ortiz, Gunnar, Urias, Mateo

OFers: Kjerstad, Cowser, Mullins, Hilliard, Hays

C- Adley, McCann

So, 3 rookies to start and a 4th in Holliday by June.

Why can’t that offense compete?  I mean, it may not but it may not if we kept the vets too.

What I would say and it’s what I have said all offseason, I think if your intention is to insert 3-4 rookies into the lineup this year, that means we should upgrade the pitching staff. 

That offense would probably be worse than 2023.  Probably no WS contender there.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

They can play rookies.  But can they play rookies going through adjustment periods and contend?

Depends how long and severe those adjustment periods are, and how good theses players are once the adjustment period is over.   The ‘75 Red Sox did okay with rookies Fred Lynn and Jim Rice in their lineup every day.  

[wildcard]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Depends how long and severe those adjustment periods are, and how good theses players are once the adjustment period is over.   The ‘75 Red Sox did okay with rookies Fred Lynn and Jim Rice in their lineup every day.  

1975?  Really.  Why don't you join Drungo and go back to 1908.

[forphase1]

16 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Adley, Gunnar, GRod and Westburg all had adjustment periods.   What O's rookie has not?

Most recent O's rookie have, no question.  At the same time looking not just recently and not just at the Os, some players start producing pretty much immediately.  Corbin Carroll, for example, when first called up in 2022 for his first 3 months in the MLB had an OPS of .800, .833 and .830.  Then pretty much did the same thing all of 2023.  He didn't have an adjustment period.  And I'm sure there are many other examples too.  

[Sports Guy]

25 minutes ago, wildcard said:

That offense would probably be worse than 2023.  Probably no WS contender there.

Well the offense may be worse regardless if they do as well with RISP.

But, let’s just take that out for a moment.

You are losing 6.1 fWAR with Frazier, Hicks, AS and Mounty off the team. 
 

Can Mayo, Kjerstad, Holliday and Cowser make up for that?  
 

I’d be surprised if they didn’t.  And maybe some of the existing players hit better in 2024 than they did in 2023.

But again, there is pitching and defense too. You can allow less runs next year and even if you score less, you can still win a lot of games.

Edited November 6, 2023 by Sports Guy

[wildcard]

7 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

Most recent O's rookie have, no question.  At the same time looking not just recently and not just at the Os, some players start producing pretty much immediately.  Corbin Carroll, for example, when first called up in 2022 for his first 3 months in the MLB had an OPS of .800, .833 and .830.  Then pretty much did the same thing all of 2023.  He didn't have an adjustment period.  And I'm sure there are many other examples too.  

Few and far between.

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well the offense may be worse regardless if they do as well with RISP.

But, let’s just take that out for a moment.

You are losing 6.1 fWAR with Frazier, Hicks, AS and Mounty off the team. 
 

Can Mayo, Kjerstad, Holliday and Cowser make up for that?  
 

I’d be surprised if they didn’t.  And maybe some of the existing players hit better in 2024 than they did in 2023.

But again, there is pitching and defense too. You can allow less runs next year and even if you score less, you can still win a lot of games.

I doubt that Elias off season goal is to make the offense worse.

[LookinUp]

There's a Kremer discussion going on re: whether he's the guy you want to give the ball to in the playoffs. 

I think there's a similar discussion about Hays, Mountcastle and Mullins and ABs. I'd like the young guys (my list is Holliday, Mayo, Basallo and Ortiz) to get up here as soon as we can really justify it. For all but Basallo, you could justify either opening day or after the super 2.

I want them here and acclimated by this year's playoffs, and hopefully booming by the 2025 playoffs. I get that we're managing a rolling window of contracts, but you'd love to see all of those guys hitting their strides at the same time as Adley, Gunnar, Westburg and Kjerstad.

I think that core will hit in the playoffs. It should be about getting ready for that, and not about winning the division. Take the lumps early. Grow. Destroy the competition. Lol. 

Edited November 6, 2023 by LookinUp

[forphase1]

5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Few and far between.

Probably not quite as uncommon as you are acting.  Unlikely I'll grant you, but it's not impossible for a Mayo/Holiday/whoever to come up and pretty much start hitting from the word go.  The 'adjustment period' is one of those urban myths that everyone claims (like Jeter was a great defensive shortstop and 'clutch exists' ) it to be true but isn't really.  

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

There's a Kremer discussion going on re: whether he's the guy you want to give the ball to in the playoffs. 

I think there's a similar discussion about Hays, Mountcastle and Mullins and ABs. I'd like the young guys (my list is Holliday, Mayo, Basallo and Ortiz) to get up here as soon as we can really justify it. For all but Basallo, you could justify either opening day or after the super 2.

I want them here and acclimated by this year's playoffs, and hopefully booming by the 2025 playoffs. I get that we're managing an rolling window of contracts, but you'd love to see all of those guys hitting their strides at the same time as Adley, Gunnar, Westburg and Kjerstad.

I think that core will hit in the playoffs. It should be about getting ready for that, and not about winning the division. Take the lumps early. Grow. Destroy the competition. Lol. 

I think it should be about going for the WS every year.   I think Elias can do that and still develop the guys you talked about.

[LookinUp]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

I think it should be about going for the WS every year.   I think Elias can do that and still develop the guys you talked about.

Sound good. But how?

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

Probably not quite as uncommon as you are acting.  Unlikely I'll grant you, but it's not impossible for a Mayo/Holiday/whoever to come up and pretty much start hitting from the word go.  The 'adjustment period' is one of those urban myths that everyone claims (like Jeter was a great defensive shortstop and 'clutch exists' ) it to be true but isn't really.  

I am just going by what has happen to the O's top talent in Adley, Gunnar, GRod and Westburg.   

[24fps]

9 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Few and far between.

Rookies Yainer Diaz, Triston Casas, Spencer Steer, Matt McClain, Nolan Jones all had an OPS+ greater than Santandar (121) and Mountcastle (117) in 2023.