Dean Kremer: Underrated? Overrated?

[Oriole1940]

I will be disappointed if in 2024 he does not have an  ERA under 4.00.

[Say O!]

If put in the context of his salary and years of control left, how can Kremer be anything other than vastly under-rated?  Loads of surplus value.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Kremer is a valuable commodity for being established, durable and under team control. He also has a solid 4S/2S/cutter combo and knows how to pitch well with those, so there’s some potential there if he’s ever able to get more out of his offspeed. Maybe he was starting to get there in the second half this year. 

However, we now have pretty big chunks of IP with his ERA far outpacing his peripherals. If you’re a person who believes the peripherals have better predictive ability then it’s hard to see him as being more than a back of the rotation starter.

For me, he’s not a guy that you want to go into the season with him penciled into your top 4 playoff rotation. He’s a solid 5 on a playoff team. That’s valuable with his contract status, but they badly need to bring in at least one guy to push him down the depth chart. 

[Jammer7]

I wondered what his home/away splits would show. I expected his numbers at home to be much better, not that they were bad. I think a solid 4/5 starter on a playoff team is fair. The K rate is not bad, but if he were to develop a true debt and miss pitch, like a split, maybe he breaks out to a solid #3. 

Some strange numbers with a few minor surprises. Half a run higher ERA at home 4.38 vs. 3.73. Higher HR rate at home. Lower BA against .240 at home vs. .274 on road. Higher WHIP on road 1.39 vs. 1.26 at home. A 20% higher ground ball rate at home.

The HR rate and half run higher ERA was a little surprising. 
 

https://www.mlb.com/player/dean-kremer-665152?stats=splits-r-pitching-mlb&year=2023

[ChosenOne21]

I think he's a true talent 4.25-4.40 ERA guy who has shown some ability to outpitch his peripherals. I also think there's a 25% chance he finds more consistency and is a sub-4 ERA true talent guy. 

I'm not ready to anoint him as a Jeremy Guthrie Outpitch Your Peripherals For Most Of Your Career Until You Suddenly Don't type just yet, but last year did provide additional evidence he could be that guy.