FG depth charts 2024 run differential estimate

[Just Regular]

As the offseason opens, here's a readout of what today's Fangraphs depth charts 2024 projections think approximately of the 30 Clubs.     I just took everyone in the download, and adjusted each Club's Runs Scored and Allowed to Per 6137 PA and Per 1436 IP, the 2023 actuals.     The raw data averaged out to about +15 per Club, so I did a minus 15 on the raw readout to get the league to zero sum.

Four of the Top 9 teams are AL East teams, with the Orioles 4th.

AL East: TBR 85, TOR 55, NYY 55, BAL 35, BOS 0

AL Central: MIN 45, CLE -5, DET -20, KCR -45, CHW -125

AL West: HOU 90, SEA 35, TEX 15, LAA -30, OAK -70

NL East: ATL 160, PHI 35, NYM 25, MIA 0, WSN -120

NL Central: STL 25, MIL 10, CHC -10, CIN -25, PIT -45

NL West: LAD 45, SDP 20, ARI -15, SFG -30, COL -195

It thinks BAL is 15th in Runs Scored around 750 Runs, and 8th in Runs Allowed around 700 Runs.

CHW 50 runs behind OAK in the American League does increase my wonder if a teardown all the way to Colson Montgomery and whatever they get back for all their established big leaguers, including Andrew Vaughn and Garrett Crochet, is the path Chris Getz will take.

[Spy Fox]

And so begins Chapter 1 of "They Still Don't Believe In Us" 2024. 

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

And so begins Chapter 1 of "They Still Don't Believe In Us" 2024. 

Until the team is improved upon, I don’t think this is something that should be unexpected and I don’t think it’s wrong either.

Edited November 8, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

And so begins Chapter 1 of "They Still Don't Believe In Us" 2024. 

And so begins Chapter 1 of "Let's be offended by perceived disrespect" 2024.

 

[Pickles]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Until the team is improved upon, I don’t think this is something that should be unexpected and I don’t think it’s wrong either.

You think the Yankess have a better roster than the O's?

[Spy Fox]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Until the team is improved upon, I don’t think this is something that should be unexpected and I don’t think it’s wrong either.

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

And so begins Chapter 1 of "Let's be offended by perceived disrespect" 2024.

I agree with both of you. 

[btdart20]

8 minutes ago, Pickles said:

You think the Yankess have a better roster than the O's?

Not currently.  I bet they are counting on a fully healthy Cole/Rodon to keep the runs allowed down. 

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, btdart20 said:

Not currently.  I bet they are counting on a fully healthy Cole/Rodon to keep the runs allowed down. 

The Ewok Willie Calhoun got significant time at DH and hitting in the middle of the order for the Yankees last season.

It's an understatement to say our roster is better than theirs.

[Just Regular]

Yep, they have Rodon forecast about a half-win better than Bradish and Grayson.

I believe rate forecast projections don't really know about stuff like Rodon's reportedly chronic bad back.      And of course Grayson put that terrible April-May into his data set so it will take the widgets some time to appreciate the extent of his strength if 2nd half Grayson is the "new normal" guy.

Red Sox, Cardinals, Giants, Dodgers the teams I heard mentioned as needing multiple SP.     Depth Charts right now sees the rest of our division, and these few others perhaps apt to take Kyle Gibson away with Top 6 Games Started guesses of:

BAL: Bradish 31, Kremer 31, Grayson 29, Means 23, Irvin 18, Povich 15     (they are pushing both Wells-Hall to full-time relievers)

BOS: Bello 29, Pivetta 29, Sale 26, Kutter 26, Houck 23, AAAA guys 6

NYY: Cole 32, Rodon 29, Schmidt 28, Nestor 26, M. King 23, R. Vasquez 11

TB: Eflin 31, Glasnow 29, Civale 28, Littell 24, Shane Baz 19, Taj Bradley 16

TOR: Gausman 32, Bassitt 32, Berrios 31, Kikuchi 29, Manoah 23, Tiedemann 10

STL: Mikolas 32, Matz 26, Thompson 21, Dakota H. 21, Liberatore 18, McGreevy 13      (very little Drew Rom confidence there)

LAD:  (Urias??? 31), Miller 29, Buehler 28, Pepiot 24, Sheehan 23, Yarbrough 18

SF: L. Webb 32, DeSclafani 24, Stripling 24, Harrison 23, K. Winn 18, A. Cobb 16

[NCRaven]

These types of projections are mere clickbait until roster construction is complete.  Adding Sonny Gray changes things.  Adding another high leverage receiver, assuming Elias follows through on his stated intentions, changes things.  Will be more interested in seeing this updated in March.

Then I'll complain about how under appreciated we remain. 

 

[CaptainRedbeard]

The Orioles are projected to have the 5th best group of position players, but 21st pitchers (22 for SP and 20 for RP). I think they are too low on Means and a handful of the RP, but I can’t quibble too much with the overall assessment. 

The good thing is the FA position players are so bad that things won’t shift too much at the top of that list throughout the offseason. Where the Orioles land is completely dependent on their ability to add pitching. 

This is also based entirely on Steamer and they will eventually do 50/50 with ZIPS once that’s available. ZIPS was much higher on the Orioles than Steamer last year (especially for Dean Kremer). 

[RZNJ]

Tyler Glasnow projected for 29 starts.   21 is his best to date.  14 being his next best.  I’ll take the under.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Pickles said:

You think the Yankess have a better roster than the O's?

Not today no. But they were first in MLB in BP ERA. Rodon, if he can stay healthy (huge if but he has been at times recently) and Cole could easily be one of, if not the best 1-2 starters in the league.

Does Judge play a full season?

And you know they will spend and add major players. Let me put this another way…if the Orioles do not make big changes, I think they are as much of a borderline playoff team as the Yankees will be.

I don’t think this is fair to say it right now though, which if that’s what you are saying/asking, I agree with you there.

[Explosivo]

2 hours ago, Spy Fox said:

And so begins Chapter 1 of "They Still Don't Believe In Us" 2024. 

I don’t blame the projections. It’s impossible really to project rookies and their impact on teams as the data just isn’t there for them in the majors. Clear up the pitching need that Elias has his sights on and this team will soar just as we did last year. Health of course will be very important, particularly depth with pitching, but we’ve got position players for days to sure up any untimely injuries there. Pitching is always king and I fully expect another step forward for the O’s there.

[btdart20]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Not today no. But they were first in MLB in BP ERA. Rodon, if he can stay healthy (huge if but he has been at times recently) and Cole could easily be one of, if not the best 1-2 starters in the league.

Rhetorical question of the day -- Who has more QS:  Cole/Rodon or Bradish/Grayson?  

Nestor and King can be a formidable back-end of the rotation though.