Luis Severino?

[btdart20]

Is he fixable?  Why isn't he throwing his SL?  

MLBTR predicts:  $14m/1yr.  

FG:  $10m/1 yr.

Theory:  Honestly, Severino doesn't fit the risk profile that we're accustomed to seeing.  But could Elias see that the team needs have changed and the risks we need to hedge are different in 2024 than in the past?  2022 and 2023 we brought in hedges for IP volume/a reliable floor for the rotation.  Could 2024 be about stretching the upside of the rotation now that we have a more stable projectability for Grayson/Bradish?  (But can we truly get away from thinking about the cost?  I'd like to live in that world, but I don't think it's happening.)

Is he hurt?  I'm not convinced because the velo is still strong (96.5 on his 4S).  Maybe some discomfort or not wanting to risk throwing breaking balls?

He's missed a ton of time over the last few years (TJ, lat strain...).  19 and 18 GS over the last two years is the high-water mark since 2018.  Velo looks strong, but in 2023 he had a big uptick on throwing the cutter.  Spin rates look similar with slight ticks down for most pitches.  SL still looks strong, especially paired with a 96+ 4S.  IIRC@nvpacchihad some questions/concerns about one of our guy's cutter during the season.  Career CSW% over 28% but less than 24% in 2023.  Most of the drop was on swinging strikes (i.e. not missing bats).  A lot more contact in general.  And the HH% is on the rise too along with a 20.9% HR/FB ratio.

Obviously the price point, years, and ceiling are attractive.  But the risks are palpable too...  I'm not convinced he's the guy, but am hoping the collective wisdom has something that convinces me he's worth the risk?

Why are you signing him?  Why are you not?

[RZNJ]

He’s not worth the risk as our one starting pitching addition.

[Orange]

He's a great pitcher who gets injured quite often. I am sure he'll be a great gamble for a team like Texas, Boston, Cubs, etc. I just think we're going to acquire one top-flight reliever and hopefully one middle-to-top-tier SP and that'll be pretty much it. We can't risk our one SP signing to be a guy who is 50% likely to have a major injury. Plus, he's a righty and if we don't acquire a LHSP I'll continue to wonder why the heck we pushed the wall back. (We're trying to manufacture an advantage, right??)

https://theathletic.com/4848366/2023/09/09/luis-severino-injury-yankees/

"But in 2022, Severino’s 3.18 ERA in 19 games and flashes of his old brilliance convinced the Yankees to pick up his $15 million team option for the 2023 season. That, too, proved a mistake. He started the year on the injured list with yet another lat strain, needing until May 21 to make his first major-league start. Then he went 4-8 with a 7.98 ERA in 15 games (14 starts), at one point calling himself “the worst pitcher in the game.”

Severino seemed to be potentially turning a corner, however. Over his last four starts including Friday, he had a 2.49 ERA."

[nvpacchi]

Yeah all of Kremer,  Wells, and Rodriguez had cutters that got torched last year. GRod ditched the cutter in 2H and we know how that went. ( not that the cutter was the only reason for 1H woes...)

I think I'm more ambivalent on Sev than anything else. a 1yr prove it deal with a QO potentially is relatively low risk,  but preCOViD Severino feels like a distant dream. I'd rather try on Montas for a prove it deal.

[dystopia]

We should not be signing any SP reclamation projects.

[Moose Milligan]

I’d take that risk as long as he’s not the only rotation piece we add. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, nvpacchi said:

Yeah all of Kremer,  Wells, and Rodriguez had cutters that got torched last year. 

I heard some analysis on a televised game near the end of the year saying that the cutter had been Kremer’s best pitch in the second half and he’d ramped up the use of if.  I don’t know if the data bears out that the pitch improved as the year went along.  

[HakunaSakata]

Luis Severino is broken...and injury prone to the extreme. Hard pass. 

[Too Tall]

If you want a project, sign Fugi for the pen and then go out and get another,proven end of pen piece. . We don't need starting pitcher projects we need a true top end, durable starter. IMO, L S ain't it. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Too Tall said:

If you want a project, sign Fugi for the pen and then go out and get another,proven end of pen piece. . We don't need starting pitcher projects we need a true top end, durable starter. IMO, L S ain't it. 

Next year is his age 30 season.  I don't think Fuji is a project at this point.

[Roll Tide]

43 minutes ago, Too Tall said:

If you want a project, sign Fugi for the pen and then go out and get another,proven end of pen piece. . We don't need starting pitcher projects we need a true top end, durable starter. IMO, L S ain't it. 

Fuji is too inconsistent… he’s either elite or awful. We can pay for a better reliever 

[nvpacchi]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

I heard some analysis on a televised game near the end of the year saying that the cutter had been Kremer’s best pitch in the second half and he’d ramped up the use of if.  I don’t know if the data bears out that the pitch improved as the year went along.  

its very possible,  I think the analysis I did was around July, so makes sense if he made proper tweaks in Aug and Sep.

[Jim'sKid26]

There has been a lot of talk about the Yankees management not being able to convince a large part of their team to buy into their analytics. There has been talk that they are either producing data and analysis that is not useful to the players or that the analysis has been presented in a way that is not understood by the players and therefore not useful. There were some very interesting quotes in Cashman's most recent statements at the GM meetings.

Could it be that Severino is healthy now and just not getting the support he needs from the coaches and analytics group in the Bronx? He has always been a guy who has had stuff. The risk to my way of looking is his injury history. That is why he's a 4th or 5th option for me. But if he's healthy, big if, he still has the stuff to be successful. Get him to buy into the analytics and you might have a steal on a one year contract.

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

There has been a lot of talk about the Yankees management not being able to convince a large part of their team to buy into their analytics. There has been talk that they are either producing data and analysis that is not useful to the players or that the analysis has been presented in a way that is not understood by the players and therefore not useful. There were some very interesting quotes in Cashman's most recent statements at the GM meetings.

Could it be that Severino is healthy now and just not getting the support he needs from the coaches and analytics group in the Bronx? He has always been a guy who has had stuff. The risk to my way of looking is his injury history. That is why he's a 4th or 5th option for me. But if he's healthy, big if, he still has the stuff to be successful. Get him to buy into the analytics and you might have a steal on a one year contract.

He was very good in 2022.  I think last year was because of being hurt.  The big IF is whether he can stay healthy and make 25-32 starts.  He hasn’t done that since 2018 but he’s still young and turns 30 soon.  A decent gamble for some teams but I don’t think it’s a gamble the Orioles will take.

[RZNJ]

Jul 30, 2023 — “Right now, I feel like I am the worst pitcher in the game, no doubt about it,” said Severino, who gave up a career-high nine earned runs across ...
 

This quote makes me like Severino.  He was a legit TOR pitcher in 17-18 and pitched like at least a #3 when he pitched in 22.  He’d be a tough sell though.