2023 #10 Prospect Mac Horvath - 2B/3B

[Tony-OH]

https://orioleshangout.com/2023/11/12/10-prospect-mac-horvath-3b-2b/

The Orioles second round pick in the 2023 draft, this power hitting infielder took to pro ball immediately putting up great offensive numbers in his limited play across the three levels and comes in as the #10 prospect.

Mac Horvath
Pos: 3B/2B
Bats: R
Throws: R
Age (as of Jun 30th) : 21
2023 Level: FCL/A/A+

Tools (current/future value)
Hit: 40/50
Game Power: 45/60
Raw Power: 55/60
Run: 60/55
Defense: 40/45

2023 Highlights

Most Likely Future Role: 1^st Division hitter (Defensive position is unknown)
Ceiling: 1st Division hitter, occasional All-Star

What we know: The right-handed hitting Horvath had a breakout year at North Carolina showing plus pull power, plus speed, and the ability to work counts. He slashed .305/.418/.711/1.129 with 21 doubles and 24 home runs in 292 PAs in his junior year enough to have the Orioles snag him with the 53rd overall pick in the 2nd round.

The 21-year old took to pro ball right away slashing .321/.455/.603/1.057 with 7 doubles and 5 home runs over 99 professional PAs over three levels of play ending the year with a taste of High-A in Aberdeen. Horvath has a flyball, pull heavy approach at the plate and will absolutely mash breaking balls left over the plate. There were some concerns over his ability to hit upper velocity and fastballs up in the zone coming out of college and that showed up at times as well during his pro ball time. Time will tell whether that becomes a bigger issue as he rises through the system.

Listed at 6-1, 195, Horvath carries his weight well and has plus speed which allowed him to steal 14 bases in 15 tries in just 22 professional games.

Defensively he played mostly 3B in college until his junior year when he was moved out to center field at times. With some quickness side to side, the Orioles split his time mostly between second base (10 starts) and third base (9 starts) while also giving him three starts in the outfield (RF/LF). Horvath does move well enough on the dirt, but he struggles at times to throw on the move and his low arm angle (sidearm at times from 2B) causes his throws to tail away from first base.

What we don’t know: He made the adjustment to pro ball well, but he did show swing and miss with fastballs up in the zone. If that remains an issue, upper level pitching will exploit that like they did with Jud Fabian so there is some risk to the bat despite the plus power. Horvath has always been a pretty heavy pull hitter so they may work with him to try and use right field more as upper level pitching will give him a healthy dose of away pitches if he doesn't make some adjustments.

What we think: The upside of a power hitter with plus speed is why he's on the list this high despite some concerns with his hitting velocity, and whether he can stay on the dirt long term. He'll most likely start 2024 back in Aberdeen with his results deciding on how fast he gets a promotion to Double-A. He doesn't have a ton of outfield experience so the Orioles may split more of his time out in the corners, and maybe even in center field to see how he handles it out there with his plus speed. Horvath is an interesting player with a nice ceiling, but also some risk to his floor if he continues to struggle with velocity.

[Aristotelian]

Nice, 1 for 1 (although misreading one of the options helped me!). Had a feeling Horvath would be our #10. Did not realize he is a plus speed guy as well as the power.  

[btdart20]

I'm not really concerned if he doesn't stick in the grass.  At least from a Baltimore-centric perspective...  We have plenty of 2B/3B options.  I just hope the bat continues to develop, his LD% creeps up, and he can play some LF on his way up.  

[Tony-OH]

39 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

I'm not really concerned if he doesn't stick in the grass.  At least from a Baltimore-centric perspective...  We have plenty of 2B/3B options.  I just hope the bat continues to develop, his LD% creeps up, and he can play some LF on his way up.  

He clearly looks athletic enough to make the transition to the outfield and while I haven't seen him play there yet, I'd imagine he was ok enough for NC to put him in center.

He's got a lot of work to do on his defense on the grass and will need his arm angle changed a bit.

[Frobby]

Well, I got the first two right.   I mentioned elsewhere that Horvath was Adam Leighton’s (just baseball.com) pick for breakout candidate among Oriole prospects.  Hope he’s right.   

[Three Run Homer]

I'm guessing this means that Norby is out of the top 10; in any case I'll be interested to hear more about the comparison/contrast between Norby and Horvath given that they are both RH hitters with power and some concerns about defense.  

[LookinUp]

Interesting write-up. Personally, I fear a pull-happy approach in general, especially with pretty high (not alarming) k rates. 

But this is a scouting report more so than a report on what he did this year. I think Tony's betting on athleticism and power. I'm cool with that. Hopefully our player development staff can help him use that athleticism and power to become a dynamic major leaguer.

As an aside, I'd personally really need to be sold on those physical tools to rank him higher than Norby, who I think is probably a 2nd division starter in the majors, with some upside tied to his hit tool. It's just a preference for safer/closer to ready over farther away with upside. Heck, I'd argue if we went with a pure upside play, there's 1-2 international guys who are younger and showing real upside who have a case here, as does Povich. 

But it's nitpicking. I'd rank Horvath lower, but it's not like I have any real intel on him or the other guys. I assume Tony does.

[sportsfan8703]

Could he be a long term replacement for Hays in LF?  We need a pretty athletic OF in LF with all that space.  Also, he's RH and Cowser, Kjerstad, Bradfield, Stowers, and Beavers, are all LH.  

[LookinUp]

22 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Could he be a long term replacement for Hays in LF?  We need a pretty athletic OF in LF with all that space.  Also, he's RH and Cowser, Kjerstad, Bradfield, Stowers, and Beavers, are all LH.  

You have have to love his athleticism. I'd personally project Beavers/Cowser in LF before him, but you never know what good athletes turn into. We will certainly need some RHs though, which is good for him.

[Sports Guy]

 

[Sports Guy]

 

[Rbiggs2525]

As a card collector his card is very sought after. I don’t think it’s just the Oriole fans buying the hype.

[Jim'sKid26]

I watched him play CF at UNC and thought he might be able to play there as a pro. He had reasonable instincts out there and the speed to make up for a small mistake with his first step. I think he throws better from the OF than he does from the infield. 

My too early to legitimately say comp is Adam Jones. Big time pull power. A bit of swing and miss. Good but not great speed. Not a natural CF but enough of an athlete to become a very good one. He might not have AJ's arm, however. 

Question for @Tony-OH: it seems like a very common criticism of young hitters that they struggle with elite velocity up in the zone. I mean, unless you are Jackson Holiday, can't we make a similar critic of most of the guys making their transition to pro ball? I think that is a very common place to go to get guys out now that the common teaching of young hitters is to get the ball in the air. It seems to me this goes all the way back to the Science of Hitting by Ted Williams.

Edited January 13 by Jim'sKid26

[Just Regular]

One of my anchor points for how Elias assesses talent was his draft year description of Jordan Westburg as a "tooled-up college player".

I heard that as code for someone unlike Jackson Holliday, who maybe didn't have a life path towards their PhD in baseball by age 18.    I think that's somewhat who Horvath is as molding clay, though IMG Academy as high school is perhaps America's answer to the Caribbean complexes.    He isn't Lefty Grove out in the coal mines.

Horvath also feels to me a contrast to Michael Busch, a UNC Dodger pick that was more of a polished college bat ala Cowser.

Busch in College: 790 PA of 282/429/492

Horvath in College: 728 PA of 275/387/584

Horvath's 2 HR in 23 Aberdeen PA is a tease.    I didn't check Game Logs if they were away or the famous cavernous home.

 

[RZNJ]

From AA down we have more OF prospects than IF prospects, particularly after last years draft.  I hope they don’t spend too much time on the Horvath infield experiment.  Love the power/speed combo.  Even if he’s not a blazer it looks like he has good stolen base instincts and the desire to do it.  It bears repeating.  We’ve had one 50+ stolen base guy in the system and he, Luis Valdez, can’t hit or field.  In one draft it appears we got 3 50+ stolen base types in Bradfield, Etzel, and Horvath.   It also appears that they can hit and field.  Aberdeen is going to be a fun follow.