Who are the 2023 Orioles #5 and #6 prospects?

[Tony-OH]

Who are the 2023 Orioles #5 and #6 prospects?

[Sports Guy]

I think just obviously Cowser and Ortiz but what order?  
 

Im going Cowser because of age difference.

[LookinUp]

I think 80% of people would have Cowser at 5 and Ortiz at 6. I'll do the opposite. I have Ortiz above Cowser. He's a plus to plus plus defensive player at two premium positions. 

I do expect Cowser's bat to ultimately be more productive, but I think he's going to be an average corner outfielder and not much more defensively. Plus the k's really worry me. The power helps a bunch, but I just don't love his contact profile.

That said, I'm the #1 believer in offseason development and I'm not sure he has to make a massive change to improve his ability to hit velo. I'm starting to talk myself into him again.

Interestingly, these might be the two most likely to get traded this offseason.

[btdart20]

I voted Cowser/Ortiz.

I think Cowser has a better hit tool.  This seems to give Cowser confidence to be more selective and allows him to square up balls more frequently.  Which leads to a higher BB%.  Ortiz and Cowser have very similar GB%, LD%, and FB%.  But the biggest difference is the IFFB% over the course of their MiLB careers.  Whether this is Ortiz popping up pitches he's fooled on or Cowser handling high velo better or something else, I'm not sure.

Regarding his K%, I'm not too concerned.  His SSS MLB Z-swing% was 63.1%.  Really low.  I think he has a bit of the Gunnar "perfectionism" and needs to be a bit more aggressive at the MLB level.  He can't wait for the perfect pitch to do damage to because there just aren't as many.  Especially on a per plate appearance basis...

Ortiz is much better defensively but I think Cowser will hold his own in LF.

[sportsfan8703]

Cowser - .443 OPS in 71 PA in MLB

Ortiz - .448 OPS in 34 PA in MLB

They both struggled in the MLB in their first chance. SSS. Maybe some flaws got exposed or magnified. I don’t think Cowser struggled so much that Ortiz is now ranked above him. 

Fair rankings. These guys are still #5 and #6 in a loaded system. Probably still top 50 prospects in all of MLB. 

[Moose Milligan]

Cowser/Ortiz.  

[Frobby]

56 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Cowser - .443 OPS in 71 PA in MLB

Ortiz - .448 OPS in 34 PA in MLB

 

What’s more relevant to me is:

Cowser - .280/.399/.498 in 523 PA in AAA, 145 K’s

Ortiz - .327/.383/.521 in 504 PA in AAA, 86 K’s

I think a lot of people would probably be surprised to know that Ortiz has a higher OPS in AAA than Cowser (.904 to .896) and his BA is 47 points higher at that level.   Now, it’s worth pointing out that those are 2022-23 numbers.  If you look just at 2023, Cowser had a better AAA OPS (.937) than Ortiz (.885).   And, Cowser is nearly two years younger.  

I’m going with Cowser 5 and Ortiz 6, but you could easily argue it should be the other way around based on Ortiz’s defensive chops.   At the end of the day, I think Cowser’s superior plate discipline and greater power potential outweigh Ortiz’s superior defense.  
 

[Mooreisbetter27]

Tony is really high (for good reason) on Basallo and Mayo so it's gotta be a combo of Ortiz and Cowser.

I went Ortiz and then Cowser.  I may be inventing this in my mind but I feel like Tony is higher on Ortiz than Cowser and Ortiz plays a premium position extremely well.  

[LookinUp]

It's interesting to me that Kjerstad is not an option here. Not that I would have picked him, but I personally think he sits squarely at #4, and can't really go higher with those top 3, but in theory could have been jumped by a guy or two (in theory).

[Aristotelian]

Basallo and Mayo have to be higher so it has to be Cowser Ortiz or Ortiz Cowser. I could go either way but I think Cowser is still ahead of Ortiz on offensive upside, but you could make a good case for Ortiz.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

It's interesting to me that Kjerstad is not an option here. Not that I would have picked him, but I personally think he sits squarely at #4, and can't really go higher with those top 3, but in theory could have been jumped by a guy or two (in theory).

I was surprised by that too.  I was actually wondering, before the choices were given, if there was a debate between Cowser and Kjerstad.

[waroriole]

4 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

It's interesting to me that Kjerstad is not an option here. Not that I would have picked him, but I personally think he sits squarely at #4, and can't really go higher with those top 3, but in theory could have been jumped by a guy or two (in theory).

Same. I have Cowser higher than Kjerstad. Interested to see Tony’s reasoning. 

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, waroriole said:

Same. I have Cowser higher than Kjerstad. Interested to see Tony’s reasoning. 

HK's splits vs. LHP are better/not as checkered as Cowser.  That's a strong tie-breaker.