Bowden: Burnes potential suitors including Os

[Ripken]

There are guys like Bryan Baker available on waivers every year.  Ten Bakers are not worth a Povich.

[ChosenOne21]

1 minute ago, Ripken said:

There are guys like Bryan Baker available on waivers every year.  Ten Bakers are not worth a Povich.

There are guys with above average relief pitcher stats on waivers to the point where they're a dime a dozen? How is it some teams have awful bullpens then?

[Ripken]

1 minute ago, ChosenOne21 said:

There are guys with above average relief pitcher stats on waivers to the point where they're a dime a dozen? How is it some teams have awful bullpens then?

Do you know how the Orioles got Bryan Baker in the first place?  The Jays waived him.  How about Danny Coulombe, Jacob Webb, and Cionel Perez?  Twins, Angels, and Reds all waived them.  There are lots of others.

[ChosenOne21]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

You think after last season, Baker is seen as someone who will stabilize a bullpen.  He’s as big, if not a bigger question mark than Povich without the starter upside.  Povich gets K’s.  His floor is probably ML reliever.  Find one person, anywhere, who would trade Povich for Baker and I’m not very confident in Povich.

He's a question mark, but so are virtually all relievers. Is he more erratic than the average reliever? Maybe, but the overall numbers stack up well.

Baker has had two successful major league seasons. Povich has had zero. Yes, Povich has the chance to be more valuable than Baker, but he also has the chance to be worse.

All I'm saying is that Bryan Baker is better than people think, and it's entirely possible that Mike Elias, who knows way more about Cade Povich than any of us, ends up trading him for less than we think he's worth and ends up winning the trade.

[ChosenOne21]

Just now, Ripken said:

Do you know how the Orioles got Bryan Baker in the first place?  The Jays waived him.  How about Danny Coulombe, Jacob Webb, and Cionel Perez?  Twins, Angels, and Reds all waived them.  There are lots of others.

I would say the Orioles are well above average at picking relievers off the scrap heap and turning them into useful pitchers. The Orioles could certainly replace Bryan Baker off the scrapheap. Doesn't mean that A: he's not valuable and B: other teams can easily do something similar.

[Ripken]

1 minute ago, ChosenOne21 said:

I would say the Orioles are well above average at picking relievers off the scrap heap and turning them into useful pitchers. The Orioles could certainly replace Bryan Baker off the scrapheap. Doesn't mean that A: he's not valuable and B: other teams can easily do something similar.

But he's clearly not worth a good AAA left-handed starting pitcher prospect.  Teams highly value those guys.  Bryan Baker may not even make the Orioles this year.  He's nothing special.

[Aristotelian]

3 hours ago, ChosenOne21 said:

That's one of the problems with trade simulator: five eights isn't as good as a 40. Value concentrated in a single player is so much better than value spread out. The Brewers aren't doing the Norby+ deal. They'd probably do the Mayo one.

The other issue is that other teams will be bidding. To get a prized ace you are targeting you probably have to overpay compared to the minimal deal you can get to balance out on the app.

[ChosenOne21]

Just now, Ripken said:

But he's clearly not worth a good AAA left-handed starting pitcher prospect.  Teams highly value those guys.  Bryan Baker may not even make the Orioles this year.  He's nothing special.

What would you say the chances are that Povich is an above average SP in the majors? I give it about 10-15%. Again, I'd rather roll the dice on that than clone Bryan Baker, but I can easily imagine someone knowing more about Povich thinking he's overvalued and trading him for a solid reliever that he likes.

If Bryan Baker doesn't make the Orioles this year, I think that says more about the other relievers we have than him. Bryan Baker would be in the bullpens of two-thirds of the teams in MLB at least.

I think I'm done replying to this until someone demonstrates, with numbers, that Bryan Baker is not an above average relief pitcher. I've posted numbers suggesting he is.

[ThisIsBirdland]

I love that we have two threads currently discussing Cade Povich, one in which he’s in the same prospect tier as our top 5 prospects, and the other where he carries equal value to Bryan Baker. Amazing. 

[Safelykept]

38 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Average reliever ERA: 4.17
Baker: 3.60

Average reliever K/9: 9.1
Baker: 10.2

Average reliever HR/9: 1.09
Baker: 0.80

Average reliever WHIP: 1.324
Baker: 1.267

I will admit Baker gives up an above average amount of walks, but the overall package is clearly above average for a relief pitcher. As to whether or not he's an above average middle reliever, I guess that depends on how you define that. A quick glance shows his ERA to be average for all pitchers who pitched in the sixth or seventh inning.

I can't imagine there are many if any bullpens where he wouldn't have a role.

IF you think hes above  ave go back and watch game 2 vs Texas, and granted all our pictures looked over matched, or too young, but walking the bases loaded and not even being competitive doing it. Looked way to small for the moment,The absolute low point of the season.

[ChosenOne21]

Just now, Safelykept said:

IF you think hes above  ave go back and watch game 2 vs Texas, and granted all our pictures looked over matched, or too young, but walking the bases loaded and not even being competitive doing it. Looked way to small for the moment,The absolute low point of the season.

"He had a bad game so he's not above average."

[Roll Tide]

40 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Agreed. Burnes is good, but long term this could end up being this generation’s John Smoltz for Doyle Alexander trade. 

Maybe if there was a real chance at signing Burnes to a contract, but I don’t see that happening. 

That’s why you don’t do it…..if the wallet was somewhat open you get a package agreed on and get permission to speak to his agent. If it appears you can agree on an extension I’m more than happy to part with a guy like Mayo and a couple lesser guys. But, you can’t give that up for a 1 year rental.

[dystopia]

7 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

"He had a bad game so he's not above average."

He had a lot more than 1 bad game. Everyone knew when he came into that game against Texas that it was over.

[Safelykept]

7 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

"He had a bad game so he's not above average."

It was beyond bad that's what happened to Grod and Kremer it was the low point of season. What are you telling me you did not watch it, no hes not above average and it was only the 2nd or 3rd inning.

[ChosenOne21]

3 minutes ago, Safelykept said:

It was beyond bad that's what happened to Grod and Kremer it was the low point of season. What are you telling me you did not watch it, no hes not above average and it was only the 2nd or 3rd inning.

So are Grod and Kremer not above average?