Cease vs everyone else

[dystopia]

9 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

...because his xERA was even higher than I initially stated? Honestly though I really don't think it's worth diving too much into Grayson's 2023 numbers because it's such a small sample size. He initially struggled then came back and had some success, which is certainly a positive sign. And he seems to be trending in the right direction, which is great. I just think it's a little early to put him on the same level as a pitcher like Cease. I hope he continues to progress, but to say that he's already at the Cease level seems very premature to me. 

His xERA being LOWER than his actual ERA, despite getting bombed in the first half before being sent down, doesn't support your argument at all. The numbers WC posted were for 2nd half only. He had a 2.76 FIP after the ASB. 

Not that I put any stock into these advanced stats anyway, but if you're going to use them to try and argue for Cease over G-Rod, at least compare apples to apples.

[RZNJ]

22 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I honestly don't think you believe half the things that you write when you respond to my posts. It really feels like you're just arguing just for the sake of arguing because in some weird way you think I've wronged you. I think it would probably be best if I just didn't engage you again. 

BTW, I believe everything I wrote.  I’d rather have GRod for the 2024 season than Cease but that’s not the point.   You doubted if even one team would.  I honestly believe some teams would.  Maybe most teams.

[Frobby]

51 minutes ago, wildcard said:

2nd half ERAs

Bradish  2.34

GRod.  2.58

These are young improving starters.   I wouldn't limit them by anything ZIPPY says.   They are #1s in the making.   And 2024 is a good year for them to grow.

Go back to Jan. 2023.  Cease had just finished his age 26 season with a 2.20 ERA over the entire season.  Do you think White Sox fans thought he was a young no. 1 in the making?   Having a strong second half is encouraging but it guarantees nothing.  By the way, Dan Szymborski (ZiPS) was asked if ZiPS takes into account the pitchers’ trend line over the preceding season and he said he’d looked at it and couldn’t separate the signal from the noise.

[Roll Tide]

9 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

From 19 to 22, not that much.  The point is that he’s already filled out if you’ve seen him.   He might get bigger or more muscular but his frame is filled.   You don’t care that almost, if not every, “expert” thinks he can stick at catcher?

Ok

Quote

A plus throwing arm is the leading defensive tool for Basallo who may be a candidate to move from behind the dish. He moves well to continue to get looks at catcher, but his blocking and receiving has a ways to go. His catch and throw skills are strong, gunning down around 33% of attempted base stealers. There’s a chance Basallo can stick at the position and he has shown some improvements already.

A Chance …. I have a chance to hit the Powerball. I know I’m being a smart ass. 

https://www.justbaseball.com/prospects/just-baseballs-top-10-catching-prospects-for-2024/#:~:text=He moves well to continue,has shown some improvements already.

 

Quote

But what about the defense? There have been some doubts about whether Basallo can stick as a catcher long term or not. Much of that skepticism comes from his size. Basallo is big at 6-foot-3, and anyone that has seen him in person will tell you that the 180 pounds he’s listed at is probably 50 pounds lighter than reality. That raises some concerns about continued mobility and blocking pitches.

Some Doubts … Actually 230 lbs….Bet he’s 250-260 by the time he’s 22-23

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/baltimore-orioles-top-38-prospects-2023/

 

It’s possible but I don’t know how likely.

[RZNJ]

22 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Ok

A Chance …. I have a chance to hit the Powerball. I know I’m being a smart ass. 

https://www.justbaseball.com/prospects/just-baseballs-top-10-catching-prospects-for-2024/#:~:text=He moves well to continue,has shown some improvements already.

 

Some Doubts … Actually 230 lbs….Bet he’s 250-260 by the time he’s 22-23

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/baltimore-orioles-top-38-prospects-2023/

 

It’s possible but I don’t know how likely.

A Fangraphs article from February 2023 before he had even played a game of full season ball?

Nice try.  How about a scouting report from his little league coach while you’re at it.
 

 

Baseball America

“Behind the plate, Basallo moves well for someone his size and is improving his actions and receiving as he climbs through the minors. His best trait behind the plate is a plus-plus arm with above-average accuracy, allowing him to control the running game. He may ultimately fall short of his fringe-average ceiling behind the plate, though he should be able to play there a few times a week, with his bat keeping him in the lineup elsewhere on days he’s not catching.

The Future: Basallo has the skills to be a standout two-way catcher, with the potential to be an all-star for his bat in his peak offensive seasons. He’ll be back at Double-A Bowie at age 19 to begin 2024, and will likely spend the season in the high minors before pushing for major league time in 2025.“

 

Funny.  I said almost every expert thinks “he can” stick at catcher and your article thinks there’s “a chance he can” stick at catcher.   Sounds like the odds are a little better than winning the power ball.  Also, if this kid puts on 30 pounds from where he is now he’ll definitely be over weight and reading his quotes I don’t anticipate that happening.

 

Required reading for Oriole fans.

https://www.masnsports.com/blog/o-s-top-50-prospect-samuel-basallo-talks-about-his-fantastic-2023-season

Edited January 7 by RZNJ

[ChosenOne21]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

I would not put money on which one will throw more innings.   Cease had 177 IP last year in 33 starts.   GRod had 163 in IP in 31 starts.   Give them the same number of starts and its a toss up.

Fair point. I thought Grod threw less than that. While Grod isn't necessarily injury prone, Cease has pretty much been the picture of health, so I still give him the edge though.

[wildcard]

28 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

...because his xERA was even higher than I initially stated? Honestly though I really don't think it's worth diving too much into Grayson's 2023 numbers because it's such a small sample size. He initially struggled then came back and had some success, which is certainly a positive sign. And he seems to be trending in the right direction, which is great. I just think it's a little early to put him on the same level as a pitcher like Cease. I hope he continues to progress, but to say that he's already at the Cease level seems very premature to me. 

GRod is trending up at a rapid pace and Cease trended down in 2023,  ended worst in the 2nd half with a 4.96 ERA.  Certainty 2022 balances some of that out.  But GRod is a good bet going forward.

[wildcard]

16 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Go back to Jan. 2023.  Cease had just finished his age 26 season with a 2.20 ERA over the entire season.  Do you think White Sox fans thought he was a young no. 1 in the making?   Having a strong second half is encouraging but it guarantees nothing.  By the way, Dan Szymborski (ZiPS) was asked if ZiPS takes into account the pitchers’ trend line over the preceding season and he said he’d looked at it and couldn’t separate the signal from the noise.

The only thing that is guaranteed in major league baseball is some of  the contracts.  Signed as a 1st rounder  GRod rose be to the best starter prospect in baseball.   His 2nd half just shows he is reaching his potential.   I think he is a Cy Young candidate in 2024.   He has a strong build.  He has some  of the best stuff in baseball and he is learning the league fast.   I am right there with him.  You can go to the doubter's pool if you want.

Edited January 7 by wildcard

[Roll Tide]

5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

A Fangraphs article from February 2023 before he had even played a game of full season ball?

Nice try.  How about a scouting report from his little league coach while you’re at it.
 

 

Baseball America

“Behind the plate, Basallo moves well for someone his size and is improving his actions and receiving as he climbs through the minors. His best trait behind the plate is a plus-plus arm with above-average accuracy, allowing him to control the running game. He may ultimately fall short of his fringe-average ceiling behind the plate, though he should be able to play there a few times a week, with his bat keeping him in the lineup elsewhere on days he’s not catching.

The Future: Basallo has the skills to be a standout two-way catcher, with the potential to be an all-star for his bat in his peak offensive seasons. He’ll be back at Double-A Bowie at age 19 to begin 2024, and will likely spend the season in the high minors before pushing for major league time in 2025.“

nice try
 

Moves well for someone his size (clearly a caveat statement), May ultimately fall short of his fringe average ceiling . if that doesn’t sound iffy. 
 

The writer is an idiot IMO. How can he be a fringe-Average ceiling receiver but be a standout 2 way catcher? Makes zero sense. 
 

 

[24fps]

1 hour ago, Too Tall said:

Last time I checked no one on this site was! 

According to the latest bulletin from deep in the cornfield, this whole site is chock full of internet GM's.  That counts for something doesn't it?

[RZNJ]

14 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

nice try
 

Moves well for someone his size (clearly a caveat statement), May ultimately fall short of his fringe average ceiling . if that doesn’t sound iffy. 
 

The writer is an idiot IMO. How can he be a fringe-Average ceiling receiver but be a standout 2 way catcher? Makes zero sense. 
 

 

Poor wording, I agree.  He’s just saying he can be average defensively and plus offensively.  The two way statement, imo, is because the majority of catchers provide little offense.

I admire your ability to post on two boards simultaneously.   They hate you ALMOST as much as they hate SportsGuy.  

[RZNJ]

13 minutes ago, 24fps said:

According to the latest bulletin from deep in the cornfield, this whole site is chock full of internet GM's.  That counts for something doesn't it?

The cornfields are quiet these days.  We were supposed to see something happen in “the next few days” about a week ago.   Maybe Povich is untouchable again.  What you say @HuskerFan?

[Roll Tide]

6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Poor wording, I agree.  He’s just saying he can be average defensively and plus offensively.  The two way statement, imo, is because the majority of catchers provide little offense.

I admire your ability to post on two boards simultaneously.   They hate you ALMOST as much as they hate SportsGuy.  

Thanks …. Yep, And I didn’t call anyone a clown.

***** Also they called SG and I buddies****

Edited January 7 by Roll Tide

[Just Regular]

It'll be real interesting to see Grayson Rodriguez and Yoshinobu Yamamoto's HR rates.     Grayson led MLB in HR/9 yielded in the 2nd half, and Yamamoto's 3-year results in Japan were amazingly low.

Grayson and Cease were both elite in the 2nd half at barrel avoidance.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&season=2023&season1=2023&ind=0&type=24&month=31&sortcol=8&sortdir=asc&pagenum=1

Dylan Cease also carries a "Mike Elias might be about to acquire him" marker of recent ERA extremely poor relative to FIP.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&season=2023&season1=2023&ind=0&type=1&month=31&sortcol=18&sortdir=default&pagenum=1

The '22-'23 White Sox were a formidable dumpster fire.

[wildcard]

46 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Go back to Jan. 2023.  Cease had just finished his age 26 season with a 2.20 ERA over the entire season.  Do you think White Sox fans thought he was a young no. 1 in the making?   Having a strong second half is encouraging but it guarantees nothing.  By the way, Dan Szymborski (ZiPS) was asked if ZiPS takes into account the pitchers’ trend line over the preceding season and he said he’d looked at it and couldn’t separate the signal from the noise.

What is ZIP projecting for Cease's ERA in 2024?  I see Streamer in 4.12 ERA