Cease vs everyone else

[dystopia]

7 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Why do you believe FIP to be so inaccurate?  Is there data that actually supports this statement?

Well that was what I was wondering. It was a thought experiment. I don’t hate FIP, I think it has at least a little value if used correctly. 
 

xFIP I think is pretty close to useless. 

[Sports Guy]

59 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Well that was what I was wondering. It was a thought experiment. I don’t hate FIP, I think it has at least a little value if used correctly. 
 

xFIP I think is pretty close to useless. 

It tries to normalize the HR allowed. Sometimes guys just have an inordinate amount of homers leave the park.  

[NCRaven]

Don’t 100% of homers “leave the park?”

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Don’t 100% of homers “leave the park?”

No.

They even have a special name for the ones that don't.

[24fps]

2 hours ago, dystopia said:

I liken it to election polling. Sometimes it’s on the mark, sometime it isn’t. It’s been so off in recent years, one has to wonder what the value of it is anymore. 
 

Take FIP for example, which is supposed to indicate how a pitcher performs in the future. How often does it get it right within say, half a run per 9 innings? Would I have the same prediction prowess by flipping a coin? If so, then what good is it besides giving nerds something to get off to?

Baseball statistical analysis is nothing at all like election polling unless you think a player's HR for a season is determined by some randomly selected citizen answering a series of biased questions.

[Pickles]

20 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’m highly confident we’ll get a better headliner than Ortiz.  And even if we can’t get a better prospect than one of Cowser or Kjerstad, I think we can get a better overall package if the second piece fron the Orioles is a guy in the 10 to 14 range.

Then if I'm Mike Elias I say, "Good luck."

You're not going to get a global top 25/30 prospect that is major league ready like Cowser or Kjerstad.  If you get someone ranked higher or in that range, they'll be further from the majors.  Ortiz is probably a top 50 prospect who is also major league ready.  You're not getting a second piece like that.  Not gonna happen.

You haven't acknowledged one of the valuable aspects of the Orioles' prospects is that most of them are pretty much major league ready.  These aren't 19 year old crapshoots.  That part of our package is going to be unparalleled.  

[Roll Tide]

21 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’m highly confident we’ll get a better headliner than Ortiz.  And even if we can’t get a better prospect than one of Cowser or Kjerstad, I think we can get a better overall package if the second piece fron the Orioles is a guy in the 10 to 14 range.

Now your getting ridiculous…..The Orioles 11-14 easily would rank in most teams top 8. If you got Cowser and Horvath/Fabian/Povich it would be pretty hard to beat.

[24fps]

11 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Now your getting ridiculous…..The Orioles 11-14 easily would rank in most teams top 8. If you got Cowser and Horvath/Fabian/Povich it would be pretty hard to beat.

Assuming Elias has an interest in Cease (and I think he should) then Cowser plus Horvath/Fabian/Povich would probably be a good starting point in the negotiation.  I also think Elias himself would beat that offer if it was clear that he had to.  Whether it's prospects or cash, reliable starting pitch is very expensive and Cease simply checks too many boxes for the O's.

[NCRaven]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

No.

They even have a special name for the ones that don't.

Crap.  Didn’t even think about that.  Well played!

[Chicago White Sox]

2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Now your getting ridiculous…..The Orioles 11-14 easily would rank in most teams top 8. If you got Cowser and Horvath/Fabian/Povich it would be pretty hard to beat.

Nothing ridiculous about it.  A 26 year old middle infielder with little power and no track record in the majors is not worth as much as you think.  The good news is we will find out soon enough,

[OriolesMagic83]

3 hours ago, 24fps said:

Assuming Elias has an interest in Cease (and I think he should) then Cowser plus Horvath/Fabian/Povich would probably be a good starting point in the negotiation.  I also think Elias himself would beat that offer if it was clear that he had to.  Whether it's prospects or cash, reliable starting pitch is very expensive and Cease simply checks too many boxes for the O's.

The O's have done great work with Bradish and now Gray Rod.  I would be much more interested in what the O's can do with Cease than some waiver wire guy.  It's still hard to tryst the O's after so many failed "ace" prospects.  That was a different front office. I expect Elias to make a trade for pitching, we'll just have to wait and see.

[Sports Guy]

7 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Nothing ridiculous about it.  A 26 year old middle infielder with little power and no track record in the majors is not worth as much as you think.  The good news is we will find out soon enough,

He’s ranked right around a bunch of the guys you mentioned.  He has high exit velo numbers, an outstanding glove at 3 positions and he will take a walk.

He has 3-4 WAR upside.

[Roll Tide]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He’s ranked right around a bunch of the guys you mentioned.  He has high exit velo numbers, an outstanding glove at 3 positions and he will take a walk.

He has 3-4 WAR upside.

I wouldn’t bother….the counterpoints are no longer logical.

[dystopia]

13 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

It tries to normalize the HR allowed. Sometimes guys just have an inordinate amount of homers leave the park.  

That’s great but it assumes pitchers don’t control their hr/fb rate, which I think is BS. 

[dystopia]

Long article but the conclusion is that the best indicator of future ERA is actually K-BB%, not any of the advanced stats. Though it is interesting that xFIP was slightly more predictive than FIP, though neither was very good. 
 

https://pitcherlist.com/the-relative-value-of-fip-xfip-siera-and-xera-pt-ii/