Cease vs everyone else

[Roll Tide]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

We hit on our no. 1 pick pretty nicely three years in a row with Olson, McDonald and Mussina.   McDonald underperformed his impossibly high expectations but Mussina overperformed by an equal amount.   

@Can_of_corn

Good points …. We had a few. But a whole lot of disappointment.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

@Can_of_corn

Good points …. We had a few. But a whole lot of disappointment.

2000-06 was brutal, other than Markakis in ‘03.

[Can_of_corn]

14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

2000-06 was brutal, other than Markakis in ‘03.

That is when Angelos demanded signability picks (to include Markakis).

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

That is when Angelos demanded signability picks (to include Markakis).

If so, they didn’t listen very well.  They were unable to sign Townsend (2004), and took almost a year to sign Loewen (2002).   

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

If so, they didn’t listen very well.  They were unable to sign Townsend (2004), and took almost a year to sign Loewen (2002).   

Hard to sign guys when you can't get ownership to open the checkbooks!

I'm not sure about every year but I'm sure I read that for at least some of these years the O's FO was constrained by what ownership was willing to pay.

 

[Frobby]

57 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Hard to sign guys when you can't get ownership to open the checkbooks!

I'm not sure about every year but I'm sure I read that for at least some of these years the O's FO was constrained by what ownership was willing to pay.

 

Angelos never did have a good understanding of which types of investments yielded a good return.  

[Roll Tide]

On 11/22/2023 at 6:50 PM, Chicago White Sox said:

Why do you believe FIP to be so inaccurate?  Is there data that actually supports this statement?

Here you go 

“

One of the most common knocks on sabermetrics is how certain stats are flawed. I am not going to talk about how FIP is a perfect stat and is the end-all, be-all when it comes to advanced stats. FIP is a very flawed stat with holes. However, it is also a highly important metric in the world of baseball today and needs to be understood for all levels of baseball players. So, first of all, what is FIP?

 

FIP is a stat that is based on the work of Voros McCracken on defense-independent pitching statistics. Tom Tango and Clay Dreslough made the stat itself and they first called it “Defense-Independent Component ERA.” The stat has gained some popularity as of late due to the ease with which it is calculated. Unlike some other advanced stats such as SIERA and wOBA, FIP is much easier to calculate as it requires easy-to-remember constants paired with basic math.

 

13xHR+3x(BB+HBP) - 2xK

FIP= ----------------------------- + FIP constant

IP

 

The FIP constant is used to bring FIP onto the same scale as ERA. There is a formula for the FIP constant; however, if looking at the MLB, it is roughly 3.1-3.2. It all depends on the run environment of the league in which you are playing. If you are coaching/playing in high school and the average ERA is over 5, then the FIP constant would adjust to around a 3.4-3.5 range. It all depends on the league average ERA of whichever league one is in. The FIP constant equation is listed below:

 

lg=League (13xlgHR)+(3x(lgBB+lgHBP))-(2xlgK)

FIP constant= lgERA minus -------------------------------------

League IP

 

 

Now, what does FIP mean? FIP stands for Fielding Independent Pitching. It takes a pitcher's numbers and completely neutralizes any ball that is put in play. It only looks at the outcomes that a pitcher has 100% control of, those being Strikeouts, Walks/HBP, and Homeruns. It is often used to show the “luck” of a pitcher because if a pitcher has low FIP, that means they are striking out batters and not giving up walks or home runs. However, if that same pitcher has a high ERA, he are seen as unlucky because his FIP is low.”

 

https://www.thedrummeyangle.com/post/the-importance-of-fip#:~:text=I cannot talk about FIP,way it did with Kluber.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Here you go 

“

One of the most common knocks on sabermetrics is how certain stats are flawed. I am not going to talk about how FIP is a perfect stat and is the end-all, be-all when it comes to advanced stats. FIP is a very flawed stat with holes. However, it is also a highly important metric in the world of baseball today and needs to be understood for all levels of baseball players. So, first of all, what is FIP?

 

FIP is a stat that is based on the work of Voros McCracken on defense-independent pitching statistics. Tom Tango and Clay Dreslough made the stat itself and they first called it “Defense-Independent Component ERA.” The stat has gained some popularity as of late due to the ease with which it is calculated. Unlike some other advanced stats such as SIERA and wOBA, FIP is much easier to calculate as it requires easy-to-remember constants paired with basic math.

 

13xHR+3x(BB+HBP) - 2xK

FIP= ----------------------------- + FIP constant

IP

 

The FIP constant is used to bring FIP onto the same scale as ERA. There is a formula for the FIP constant; however, if looking at the MLB, it is roughly 3.1-3.2. It all depends on the run environment of the league in which you are playing. If you are coaching/playing in high school and the average ERA is over 5, then the FIP constant would adjust to around a 3.4-3.5 range. It all depends on the league average ERA of whichever league one is in. The FIP constant equation is listed below:

 

lg=League (13xlgHR)+(3x(lgBB+lgHBP))-(2xlgK)

FIP constant= lgERA minus -------------------------------------

League IP

 

 

Now, what does FIP mean? FIP stands for Fielding Independent Pitching. It takes a pitcher's numbers and completely neutralizes any ball that is put in play. It only looks at the outcomes that a pitcher has 100% control of, those being Strikeouts, Walks/HBP, and Homeruns. It is often used to show the “luck” of a pitcher because if a pitcher has low FIP, that means they are striking out batters and not giving up walks or home runs. However, if that same pitcher has a high ERA, he are seen as unlucky because his FIP is low.”

 

https://www.thedrummeyangle.com/post/the-importance-of-fip#:~:text=I cannot talk about FIP,way it did with Kluber.

What exactly was this post supposed to prove?

[Frobby]

32 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

What exactly was this post supposed to prove?

It’s explaining what FIP is.  It’s not proving anything.  

My problem with FiP is that it assumes that the pitcher somehow has control over home runs but otherwise has no control over the outcome of a batted ball.  That defies common sense and logic, and nowadays we have a lot more information about the quality of contact allowed by different pitchers.  So whatever utility FIP had when it was created, it’s sort of obsolete now IMO.  I think it has some limited value in flagging pitchers who may have had fluky good or bad results one year, but once you have that flag, you have to look deeper.   

 

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s explaining what FIP is.  It’s not proving anything.  

My problem with FiP is that it assumes that the pitcher somehow has control over home runs but otherwise has no control over the outcome of a batted ball.  That defies common sense and logic, and nowadays we have a lot more information about the quality of contact allowed by different pitchers.  So whatever utility FIP had when it was created, it’s sort of obsolete now IMO.  I think it has some limited value in flagging pitchers who may have had fluky good or bad results one year, but once you have that flag, you have to look deeper.   

 

Thus why xFIP exists.

No stats incorporates everything you should look into but a stat that uses park factors, puts weight into what a pitcher has control over and gives weight to IFFB% is a stat that does a better job than most when evaluating pitchers.

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

What exactly was this post supposed to prove?

He asked the poster why he thought FIP was inaccurate.  Was simply providing some counter points. I don’t really care to counter argue the points. We’ve had plenty of players that were always super talented that fell short of excellence. Obviously you can take the point that Getz is looking to improve the defense as a clear sign that they view it as a problem. But, at some point you actually have to get it done. I suspect the counter would be 2 years ago. But, it’s also possible Cease shot his load and is more like the 4+ era guy he’s been in every other season. Obviously he’s valuable, he should fetch a decent return. But, he’s not without risks of being ordinary and the two years of control vs 12-16 in the players we’d be sending to get him. Honestly, I’d rather Elias try to get a guy that has 4-5 years of control. For me it makes it more worth the stretch. My opinion would change with an ownership group that would at very least spend the available baseball money on the team as opposed to what we all know is happening now. 

Edited November 24, 2023 by Roll Tide

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Honestly, I’d rather Elias try to get a guy that has 4-5 years of control. For me it makes it more worth the stretch.

A lot of people would like to do that but most are unwilling to pay the price that would be required to acquire that kind of asset.  

[Sports Guy]

38 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

He asked the poster why he thought FIP was inaccurate.  Was simply providing some counter points. I don’t really care to counter argue the points. We’ve had plenty of players that were always super talented that fell short of excellence. Obviously you can take the point that Getz is looking to improve the defense as a clear sign that they view it as a problem. But, at some point you actually have to get it done. I suspect the counter would be 2 years ago. But, it’s also possible Cease shot his load and is more like the 4+ era guy he’s been in every other season. Obviously he’s valuable, he should fetch a decent return. But, he’s not without risks of being ordinary and the two years of control vs 12-16 in the players we’d be sending to get him. Honestly, I’d rather Elias try to get a guy that has 4-5 years of control. For me it makes it more worth the stretch. My opinion would change with an ownership group that would at very least spend the available baseball money on the team as opposed to what we all know is happening now. 

Your post didn’t show why FIP isn’t a good stat. It just showed what FIp is, which we already knew.

[Sports Guy]

34 minutes ago, Frobby said:

A lot of people would like to do that but most are unwilling to pay the price that would be required to acquire that kind of asset.  

There are young starters out there that we could get for a price that makes sense. Just have to be ok with them not being proven as of yet.

[Roll Tide]

24 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Your post didn’t show why FIP isn’t a good stat. It just showed what FIp is, which we already knew.

Ok 

 

Quote

The Bad Side of FIP

 

I cannot talk about FIP without talking about the clear flaws in the stat itself. FIP avoids all batted balls, which is a good thing in the sense that it can simplify a pitcher into the 3 true outcomes. However, it can tend to oversimplify a pitcher in the way it did with Kluber. Taking a look at Kluber’s baseball savant page, he was not good this year. But he was very good at limiting walks, which made his FIP seem a lot better than he was. This tends to happen when a pitcher has one ELITE component of FIP but is average or poor in the other components. It can easily lead to a FIP that is lower than the pitcher's performance would indicate. In conclusion, take FIP with a grain of salt and use the other stats around to help evaluate the player.

 

Another big issue with FIP is that it tends to favor power pitchers. These are guys with absurdly high K/9 and sometimes good BB/9 or HR/9. Look at Hunter Greene, for example. He is a power pitcher in the making, with a high 90s fastball and a lot of strikeouts to his name. This led to his lower FIP than expected. On the flip slide of this, FIP can also hurt contact-based pitchers that do not rely on strikeouts. An example of this comes from the great Greg Maddux compared to Nolan Ryan.