Cease vs everyone else

[24fps]

In other news: Water is WET!

Every team with a decent farm system and a need for starting pitching is going to be competing for "Ace" Dylan Cease's services, so if the O's want to land him, they won't do it on the cheap. 

[Sports Guy]

24 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

This is just a hunch, but I  feel like the Braves are probably shopping Vaughn Grissom. 

Yep…the question is, does that matter?

 

Reading one scouting report, they say he lacks power and isn’t likely to stay at SS. Trying to find where he was ranked on any of the national lists but he’s not jumping off the page for sure.

He does have youth on his side.

Edited November 27, 2023 by Sports Guy

[spiritof66]

31 minutes ago, interloper said:

Certainly don't see us getting into a bidding war with Atlanta and LA, especially when the prospects Chicago is asking for likely won't be on par with the ones they are asking of the other teams. They'll try to squeeze us for our top guys, but they'll end up settling for lesser guys from someone else. They won't accept equal-level prospects from us because our farm is too good. This is my weird theory and I'm sticking to it. 

Has Elias ever gotten into a serious bidding war involving multiple teams, whether the currency is players or dollars in multi-year contracts, or both? Do you think he will this off-season? If he does, do you see him winning one of those bidding wars? I'm dubious.

It's my impression that when there are more than two teams interested in acquiring a pitcher, and they start bidding the price up in terms of dollars, or prospects who project to be everyday major leaguers, or established players like Hays or Santander, the Orioles will drop out, whether it's Elias's or Angelos's decision -- Elias because the price level exceeds what he had in mind going in, Angelos because there are too many dollars cutting into short-term profits or commitments that might be questioned by a potential buyer and reduce the sale proceeds, and both because virtually every established pitcher carries a risk of injury or decline.

I hope I'm wrong. 

[Pickles]

So, a package from ATL for Cease floating around twitter right now is Vaughn Grissom, Hurston Waldrep, and Owen Murphy.

I think ChicagoWhiteSoxFan is going to be disappointed.

Vaughan snuck into the top 100 globally before his call up in 2022, but performed poorly in MLB in 23, (admittedly showed well in AAA) and is no longer eligible for prospect rankings.  Joey Ortiz would seem to be more highly valued.

Hurston Waldrep snuck into the top 100 as the 100th prospect for MLB.com this fall.  He like Murphy are both pitchers taken later in the first round; Murphy a prep arm.  The O's don't have a decent comp for either, but neither is seen as a prospect on the level of Kjerstad or Cowser.

What I said several pages ago stands true so far: The White Sox are not going to get a better prospect than Kjerstad and Cowser, and they won't be getting a second piece near the level of Joey Ortiz, and in fact, wouldn 't be surprised to see the best piece they recieve being in Ortiz' general range.

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Pickles said:

So, a package from ATL for Cease floating around twitter right now is Vaughn Grissom, Hurston Waldrep, and Owen Murphy.

I think ChicagoWhiteSoxFan is going to be disappointed.

Vaughan snuck into the top 100 globally before his call up in 2022, but performed poorly in MLB in 23, (admittedly showed well in AAA) and is no longer eligible for prospect rankings.  Joey Ortiz would seem to be more highly valued.

Hurston Waldrep snuck into the top 100 as the 100th prospect for MLB.com this fall.  He like Murphy are both pitchers taken later in the first round; Murphy a prep arm.  The O's don't have a decent comp for either, but neither is seen as a prospect on the level of Kjerstad or Cowser.

What I said several pages ago stands true so far: The White Sox are not going to get a better prospect than Kjerstad and Cowser, and they won't be getting a second piece near the level of Joey Ortiz, and in fact, wouldn 't be surprised to see the best piece they recieve being in Ortiz' general range.

I saw one guy throw that out.  Is it floating around anywhere else?

And I agree. If Cowser and Ortiz is put on the table, that’s going to be the best deal and there are other iterations of a deal without any of our top 5 where we can look good and trade a lot for him.

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

I saw one guy throw that out.  Is it floating around anywhere else?

And I agree. If Cowser and Ortiz is put on the table, that’s going to be the best deal and there are other iterations of a deal without any of our top 5 where we can look good and trade a lot for him.

I just saw two tweets or so proposing that and then multiple speculating on that package.  Nothing formal from anyone in any kind of know.

IMO, there's no need to put Cowser/Kjerstad and Ortiz on the table.  

They won't get a prospect as good as Cowser or Kjerstad.  They should consider themselves lucky to get one so highly ranked.

They can go get a bunch of 19 year old pitchers if they want; see how that works out for them.

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I just saw two tweets or so proposing that and then multiple speculating on that package.  Nothing formal from anyone in any kind of know.

IMO, there's no need to put Cowser/Kjerstad and Ortiz on the table.  

They won't get a prospect as good as Cowser or Kjerstad.  They should consider themselves lucky to get one so highly ranked.

They can go get a bunch of 19 year old pitchers if they want; see how that works out for them.

I’m not saying I disagree with you or that you are wrong…but I’m also not going to let Ortiz be the reason this deal falls through.

Any individual feelings aside for how good you think Cease is, it’s unquestioned that he’s an upgrade and a potential difference maker.

Ortiz is good and I’d be happy if he started for us but he’s also a luxury and one we can afford to lose.

I feel the same way about Cowser except I feel stronger about it than I do Ortiz.

Where you and I differ is that you don’t want to sacrifice for the now. I place a larger importance on winning right now and I believe they will keep a system in place that allows them to replace what they trade. I don’t believe they have a system in place to give them what Cease can, at least not right now.

[HakunaSakata]

45 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yep…the question is, does that matter?

 

Reading one scouting report, they say he lacks power and isn’t likely to stay at SS. Trying to find where he was ranked on any of the national lists but he’s not jumping off the page for sure.

He does have youth on his side.

I've seen enough to know that Vaughn Grissom is not going to cut it at SS. The Braves had talked about trying to convert him to the OF, which is probably his best bet. If the White Sox trade Eloy too they could split his time between DH an OF. My guess is, as a prospect, he's probably valued similarly to Westburg. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I've seen enough to know that Vaughn Grissom is not going to cut it at SS. The Braves had talked about trying to convert him to the OF, which is probably his best bet. If the White Sox trade Eloy too they could split his time between DH an OF. My guess is, as a prospect, he's probably valued similarly to Westburg. 

Westburg definitely has more value at this point though.

[HakunaSakata]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Westburg definitely has more value at this point though.

Maybe a lil bit, but he's also older and didn't exactly light the world on fire after he was promoted last season. 

[Pickles]

5 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Maybe a lil bit, but he's also older and didn't exactly light the world on fire after he was promoted last season. 

He looked like Pete Rose compared to Grissom's 23.

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, clapdiddy said:

But, if the O's prospects are better, why would Chicago not want them, even if they are in the O's 5-10 range?    Not sure how Atlanta's and LA's systems stack up to the O's right now. 

The Dodgers have an excellent system on-par with or maybe even a little better than the O's. The Braves do not. Their system is no where close to the other 2. But as we saw with the Verlander deadline deal even a team with an inferior system can beat you to the punch if you are unwilling to pull the trigger.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

The Dodgers have an excellent system on-par with or maybe even a little better than the O's. The Braves do not. Their system is no where close to the other 2. But as we saw with the Verlander deadline deal even a team with an inferior system can beat you to the punch if you are unwilling to pull the trigger.

LA doesn’t have the top flight prospects we have.

 

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

The Dodgers have an excellent system on-par with or maybe even a little better than the O's. The Braves do not. Their system is no where close to the other 2. But as we saw with the Verlander deadline deal even a team with an inferior system can beat you to the punch if you are unwilling to pull the trigger.

It could be true.  Maybe the Dodgers have more depth.  I feel pretty strongly that Holliday, Mayo, and Basallo are all better than the Dodgers #1 prospect.

[HakunaSakata]

11 minutes ago, Pickles said:

He looked like Pete Rose compared to Grissom's 23.

Huh? They're basically the Spider-men pointing at each other meme if you project out Grissom's numbes over Westburg's ABs. 

Wesburg - .260 / 3 HRs / 23 RBI / .311 OBP (in 208 ABs)

Grissom - .280 / 0 HRs / 9 RBI / .313 OBP (in 75 ABs)