2023 Orioles #1 Prospect Jackson Holliday - SS/2B

[Ripken]

30 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Weird that anyone would think our best lineup could possibly not have a single one of our regular major league outfielders in it.

In two years, I very much don't expect Hays and Santander to be in Baltimore.  I suppose Mullins could be.  Sure looks like a team that's going to move on from expensive veterans who aren't major contributors.  

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Ripken said:

In two years, I very much don't expect Hays and Santander to be in Baltimore.  I suppose Mullins could be.  Sure looks like a team that's going to move on from expensive veterans who aren't major contributors.  

I didn't notice the 2025 specification.  I thought they were referring to 2024.  Well, that certainly changes things.  

[LookinUp]

1 hour ago, backwardsk said:

If you were Holliday, how eager would you be to give up/delay your freedom of movement with free agency? Six, seven years is a long time. It’s hard to tell what position the organization will be then. He’s not hurting for money. He can’t drink legally and he’s already earned over $8M. His dad made around $160M. 
 

I think it’s going to be very difficult to sign him long term unless they are willing to give him premium FA AAV in his pre Arb years.

I don't think the concept is really that hard to understand. Right now, Holliday isn't guaranteed any MLB salary. Yes, he's made his $8 million, but there's no more guarantees related to injury or poor performance.

So let's say he's good and goes through his 6 years of service time. How much is that? $50-60 million? I don't know the number, but let's assume that's the case. So the O's approach him with 9 years and $135 million guaranteed. He gets guarantees for all of those 6 years plus another $25 million/year for 3 more years regardless of injury or poor performance. Oh, and he gets to be a free agent at 28 years old.

You wouldn't do that? Seems like a no brainer to me. Just have to work out the specific numbers.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, backwardsk said:

If you were Holliday, how eager would you be to give up/delay your freedom of movement with free agency? Six, seven years is a long time. It’s hard to tell what position the organization will be then. He’s not hurting for money. He can’t drink legally and he’s already earned over $8M. His dad made around $160M. 
 

I think it’s going to be very difficult to sign him long term unless they are willing to give him premium FA AAV in his pre Arb years.

He’s already here for basically the next 7 years anyway. He would only be giving up 1-2 years if FA and he would have the guaranteed money in his pocket and the ability to sign a large 9 figure contract before age 30. 
 

Id be shocked if he turned down some kind of 8-9 year deal for 100-120M.

[Ripken]

33 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Well, you got pretty much all the names right so hard to argue too much with your selections.

I could maybe see Kjerstad at 1B and Beavers or Horvath in RF. I think Westburg and or Ortiz are traded this offseason.

Yeah, the 1B, 3B, COF positions are tough to project.  Not sure Kjerstad is a good OF or 1B.  Mayo ends up somewhere.  Norby might even make a decent COF.  I also think we finally see a major prospect trade this offseason but have no idea who.  Ortiz is probably the top of that list.  

Anyway, this is about Holliday.  I think he's our leadoff, 2B going forward.  

[Ripken]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He’s already here for basically the next 7 years anyway. He would only be giving up 1-2 years if FA and he would have the guaranteed money in his pocket and the ability to sign a large 9 figure contract before age 30. 
 

Id be shocked if he turned down some kind of 8-9 year deal for 100-120M.

They missed the boat on Adley and maybe even Gunnar on this.  Gunnar might still do a 7 year deal.  I sure hope they do better with Holliday, Basallo, and Mayo.  9 or 10 year deals for some, or all, of them if the projections are truly that special.  It's working great for Atlanta and others.

[forphase1]

1 hour ago, Pickles said:

Weird that anyone would think our best lineup could possibly not have a single one of our regular major league outfielders in it.

Why though?  None of them are so elite that they couldn't/shouldn't/won't be replaced.  That's not to say none of them won't still be around in 2025, but just that I wouldn't plan on it.  Cedric is fairly obviously never going to get close to his magical year again, and while awesome in the field only had a .721 OPS last year, below league average.  Hays was terrible at the plate the 2nd half of the year (.667 OPS), though of course he was great in the first half.  And Santander, while posting the best OPS of the 3, also isn't someone elite to build around.  I'm not saying all three are terrible and MUCH be replaced, but I'm not sure than any of the 3 are so good they can't be replaced in two years by a younger version.  

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Ripken said:

They missed the boat on Adley and maybe even Gunnar on this.  Gunnar might still do a 7 year deal.  I sure hope they do better with Holliday, Basallo, and Mayo.  9 or 10 year deals for some, or all, of them if the projections are truly that special.  It's working great for Atlanta and others.

Like Adley Gunnar got a nice paycheck for his RoY finish.  That's going to lower the O's leverage a hair.

[Just Regular]

One of the comps for '24 alone as a 2B that's occurred to me is Andres Gimenez, who just won the platinum glove.

Its mostly inspired by Holliday still growing into all his strength (he's bigger than Gimenez already, but Gimenez now a fully mature adult).     Gimenez was only 98 OPS+ last year, but with strong middle infield defense and speed it was still a 5-win season with ~100% playing time.    '96 Jeter was also just 101 OPS+ while the Yankees let him figure it out all season long....Jeter then collected 22 October hits.

Some years back, Eloy Jimenez was a tip top prospect who figured out what he needed to work on in Spring Training and made an Opening Day roster.     Broadly he has not worked out, but he still has his $43mm guarantee, if the White Sox (or whoever has him next winter) don't want him at 1/16.5 for 2025.

[Pickles]

20 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

Why though?  None of them are so elite that they couldn't/shouldn't/won't be replaced.  That's not to say none of them won't still be around in 2025, but just that I wouldn't plan on it.  Cedric is fairly obviously never going to get close to his magical year again, and while awesome in the field only had a .721 OPS last year, below league average.  Hays was terrible at the plate the 2nd half of the year (.667 OPS), though of course he was great in the first half.  And Santander, while posting the best OPS of the 3, also isn't someone elite to build around.  I'm not saying all three are terrible and MUCH be replaced, but I'm not sure than any of the 3 are so good they can't be replaced in two years by a younger version.  

I was responding under the mistaken impression the OP was talking about 2024.

I think it is possible that all three of those guys are replaced by 2025, but I'd bet one of them is still here in 2025.

[backwardsk]

54 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I don't think the concept is really that hard to understand. Right now, Holliday isn't guaranteed any MLB salary. Yes, he's made his $8 million, but there's no more guarantees related to injury or poor performance.

So let's say he's good and goes through his 6 years of service time. How much is that? $50-60 million? I don't know the number, but let's assume that's the case. So the O's approach him with 9 years and $135 million guaranteed. He gets guarantees for all of those 6 years plus another $25 million/year for 3 more years regardless of injury or poor performance. Oh, and he gets to be a free agent at 28 years old.

You wouldn't do that? Seems like a no brainer to me. Just have to work out the specific numbers.

What do you think AAVs for the best players are going to be in six years from now? When you look back at Scherzer got seven years ago to what Judge got last year, it’s not inconceivable to expect high end salaries to be 50-60M/year when he hits FA. Could be even higher than that with Steve Cohen out there. So for that guarantee, he’s forgoing a potential $75-$100M. That’s a ton to give up. He has no external pressures to extend early and provide for his family because he comes from generational wealth. He has all the leverage.

I understand the concept of guaranteeing money early and getting a couple/few years of free agency as the trade off. But to compare this to Acuna (who signed for $100k and, from my knowledge, doesn’t come from generational wealth) is not comparing apples to apples, imo.

[btdart20]

Playing the mental/emotional anchor game, what type of impact does Holliday Sr.'s $160m career earnings have in the negotiating game?  8-9 years for $161m?

"How would you like to earn more than your dad in his career before day 1 on the job?"

[OriolesMagic83]

2 hours ago, btdart20 said:

Playing the mental/emotional anchor game, what type of impact does Holliday Sr.'s $160m career earnings have in the negotiating game?  8-9 years for $161m?

"How would you like to earn more than your dad in his career before day 1 on the job?"

Holliday: just adjust that for inflation and I think we have a deal. 

[OriolesMagic83]

3 hours ago, Ripken said:

They missed the boat on Adley and maybe even Gunnar on this.  Gunnar might still do a 7 year deal.  I sure hope they do better with Holliday, Basallo, and Mayo.  9 or 10 year deals for some, or all, of them if the projections are truly that special.  It's working great for Atlanta and others.

JA said he didn't miss anything, but wants you to know that ticket prices are really going to rise.

[baltfan]

21 hours ago, Ripken said:

They missed the boat on Adley and maybe even Gunnar on this.  Gunnar might still do a 7 year deal.  I sure hope they do better with Holliday, Basallo, and Mayo.  9 or 10 year deals for some, or all, of them if the projections are truly that special.  It's working great for Atlanta and others.

This is just ridiculous silly speculation. We have had zero indication that either gunner or Adley were willing to sign an extension.  This acts like they wanted to but the team refused.