Woodruff non tendered

[Sports Guy]

Shoulder injuries can be tough to overcome but if you can sign him to a reasonable 2 year deal, it may be a worthwhile gamble.

[waroriole]

Funny how earlier today you were seeing all the “rumors” about Milwaukee trading him because teams would give him a QO. That was obviously ridiculous. 

[Rbiggs2525]

I’d go incentive based deal. 2@15 with extra 5 million bonus each year after 150 IP.

[Billy F-Face3]

4 hours ago, waroriole said:

Funny how earlier today you were seeing all the “rumors” about Milwaukee trading him because teams would give him a QO. That was obviously ridiculous. 

Can't trust everything you read on Twitter/X.

[Moose Milligan]

I can see why people would want him and if we signed him I’d be okay with it. I’d be more excited about it if we were, like, a 70 win team and had more room to gamble with a guy like that.  And maybe this is the bargain bin we’re shopping in this off-season. 
 

But I want more of a sure fire bet, a known commodity if they’re going to spend money. Which they won’t. 
 

 

[Rustbelt]

A question for those who know this: if Woodruff does not get major league deal for 2024, how does his major league service time get impacted?  

[Aristotelian]

Interesting by low opportunity. Could be a cy young candidate or could be flushing money down the toilet. I am guessing he will go to another team that can more easily absorb the risk but I'm interested for sure 

[Just Regular]

Tyler Mahle is another "good, hurt pitcher" in Woodruff's situation on this year's market.     Mahle's TJ was mid-May last year, so if he avoids the John Means setback during return, he may be as much of a Sept-Oct factor as Means was this year.

70 pitchers have covered 500 innings over the previous 5 seasons:

Woodruff is 14th in fWAR (15.1), 3rd in ERA, 3rd in K-bb and 7th in Stuff+

Mahle is 42nd in fWAR (9.0), 48th in ERA, 24th in K-bb and 26th in Stuff+

The pair gives me a general Woodruff is Eovaldi/Bassitt, Mahle is Gibson kind of vibe.

[sportsfan8703]

We won’t give out longer than 3-4 year deals because of injury risk. That’s been the MO under the Angelos family. Why would we give out a 2 year deal to a guy that is 100% already injured?

This is different than the Means situation. Means was cheaper. TJ is pretty normal nowadays. Shoulders aren’t. 

[Jammer7]

They should look hard at the medicals, and be aggressive. They have an excellent medical staff, according to Elias, so bet on their opinion. Woodruff is too good, when healthy, to not take a chance on unless the medicals are that bad.

Mid-season return, at least that is what I have read. Do you pitch him in the back end of the pen for the rest of the year and perhaps make him a starter in 2025 as he is further away from surgery? Even best case scenario, he’ll have to get built back up and stronger over time. 

[RZNJ]

Gambling millions so they might get one healthy year in 2025?   Shoulder surgery.  This doesn’t sound like an Oriole or Elias play.  Next.

[BRobinsonfan]

[Just Regular]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Gambling millions so they might get one healthy year in 2025?   Shoulder surgery.  This doesn’t sound like an Oriole or Elias play.  Next.

I'd even go one healthy month.     Woodruff I think will prefer not to sell a 2025 option.     He only needs to demonstrate a good version of himself for say 6-8 weeks to regain QO status, and his spot on next year's version of today's Nola-Snell-Yamamoto list with Burnes/Glasnow/Wheeler (and maybe Gerrit Cole opting out??).

[RZNJ]

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/brandon-woodruff-injury-brewers-ace-undergoes-shoulder-surgery-likely-to-miss-all-of-2024-season/

[Jim'sKid26]

Woodruff had repair of the anterior capsule in his right shoulder. That used to be a really bad thing for pitchers and few recovered to pitch effectively after the surgery. However, recent results have been reported to be much better. According to the article posted by @RZNJ, Julio Urias had a similar procedure and returned to be a very effective SP.

A recent article from a medical journal, referenced below, is also rather encouraging. "We identified 11 elite-level baseball players who were treated with arthroscopic repair for a midsubstance glenohumeral capsular tear by a single surgeon with a uniform approach and a standardized postoperative protocol between 2012 and 2019. All players had at least 2 years of follow-up data. Eight major league players, 1 minor league player, and 2 collegiate players were included. There were 9 pitchers, 1 catcher, and 1 outfielder."

"All patients reported a high degree of satisfaction. At a mean of 16.3 months (range, 6.5-25.4 months), 10 of 11 (90.1%) players met the Conway-Jobe good or excellent criteria for RTS."

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9978988/

So a few things to note, however:

1) The surgeries were not all the same and the degree of injury was not the same.

2) While the mean recovery was 16 months, the range was up to 25 months.

3) There is no performance data, only Conway-Jobe scores to likely return to sport (RTS).

This is not TJS where the success rate for return to elite performance is well known. This is shoulder surgery where the outcome is much less well defined. If it were my money, I think I would wish Woodruff well and move on by.