Who are the 2023 Orioles #17 and #18 prospects

[Tony-OH]

Who are the 2023 Orioles #17 and #18 prospects

[LookinUp]

Holy cow. 10 different names in this poll. Good luck everyone. I think we're officially in the "it matters less where they're ranked than what's in the write-up" portion of this list.

 

[Sports Guy]

What I’m finding interesting about not just the selections but the choices being given is how the intl prospects are really starting to push down the guys we all know.

Names like Seth Johnson, Willems, Povich, Baumler, even the 2023 draftees…now of course those guys are getting pushed down for other reasons too but the point is that not long ago, they would have been ranked higher on this list because of lack of intl talent.

This is the type of thing Law talked about a few years ago.

[Sports Guy]

Also, this does back to the conversation I was having with Pickles the other day. He was so worried about how one signing could effect the long term good of the payroll and how he didn’t want to give up to much value now as it could hurt us later….the Intl guys are a big reason why we should be less worried about that stuff.

Elias knows what he’s doing. He’s building a great system and losing guys, while it hurts, to give you a better chance to win now is ok because of what is being built at all levels of the organization and good organizations can withstand those losses.

[Frobby]

I’m going Sosa and Johnson here, and here’s my logic.

Last year, Johnson was ranked 6 slots above Baumler.  Both were hurt and barely pitched this year, so I don’t see any reason that Baumler would leapfrog Johnson.   That eliminates the two options with Baumler on the list.  

Almeyda is highly regarded but he barely played and didn’t do that well when he did play.  Fabian has serious whiff rate issues that put his future in doubt.  So, I don’t think it’s them.  

Bright had some flashes of brilliance this year but was pretty inconsistent.  He was 10 slots behind Johnson last year and I don’t think he did enough to make that big a move, though I do find him interesting.  

So, I’m going with Sosa and Johnson.   Sosa had a nice year in the FCL (.290/.385/.492) and actually outhit our no. 12 prospect Tavera by a bit (.262/.391/.421).  So, this is a good spot for him IMO.


 

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Also, this does back to the conversation I was having with Pickles the other day. He was so worried about how one signing could effect the long term good of the payroll and how he didn’t want to give up to much value now as it could hurt us later….the Intl guys are a big reason why we should be less worried about that stuff.

Elias knows what he’s doing. He’s building a great system and losing guys, while it hurts, to give you a better chance to win now is ok because of what is being built at all levels of the organization and good organizations can withstand those losses.

Elias certainly knows what he’s doing.  We are probably a year or two away from seeing a lot of international guys at AA and above, when we can really get a better idea of how good they’ll be.  I’m happy that Tony thinks highly enough of these guys to put them this high on our list, but I’ll feel more comfortable about it when guys like Tavera, De Leon, Liranzo and Sosa (who I’m picking here) have a year or two of full season ball under their belt and have shown what they can do at those levels.   

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Elias certainly knows what he’s doing.  We are probably a year or two away from seeing a lot of international guys at AA and above, when we can really get a better idea of how good they’ll be.  I’m happy that Tony thinks highly enough of these guys to put them this high on our list, but I’ll feel more comfortable about it when guys like Tavera, De Leon, Liranzo and Sosa (who I’m picking here) have a year or two of full season ball under their belt and have shown what they can do at those levels.   

But that’s not the point. The point is that these things are being built and guys will break through..hell, they broke through in the past when the org has no idea what they were doing.

We can withstand trades down the road because of how the org is operating.

[LookinUp]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m going Sosa and Johnson here, and here’s my logic.

...

So, I’m going with Sosa and Johnson.   Sosa had a nice year in the FCL (.290/.385/.492) and actually outhit our no. 12 prospect Tavera by a bit (.262/.391/.421).  So, this is a good spot for him IMO.


 

I gave it less thought, but just add that it also seems like Tony like Sosa a fair amount (in the minor league forum). 

And Seth Johnson was a good prospect before he was injured. There's upside of a ML starter there, and he's kind of close to the majors. Certainly reasonable to have him this high.

[btdart20]

Any chance we can squeeze 5 of these in these two spots? 

I'd love to see Almeyda here but don't think it's reality.  Same with Arias.  Fabian's a falling knife with a 37.5% K%.  At least Fabian has the ISO thing going for him.  Willems really struggled at Aberdeen. 

Johnson was solid in his 10.1 IP in recovery showing he's still a solid prospect.

Baumler's AFL was mixed/ok.  His 17 IP was solid as well.  I'm still on board with him, but his health question marks are as big as they can be.  I doubt he's here just for the health risk.

An 18 y/o with a 11.9% BB% and 21.7% K%?  WIth a .202 ISO and a .290/.385/.492 slash?  Yeah, that's something to hang a hat on.  Maybe a little Babip-driven, but 7.1 Speed rating on FG as a LHH helps.

I like Bright, but paired with Lord is tough.

Gotta go with Sosa and Johnson.

 

 

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Any chance we can squeeze 5 of these in these two spots? 

I'd love to see Almeyda here but don't think it's reality.  Same with Arias.  Fabian's a falling knife with a 37.5% K%.  At least Fabian has the ISO thing going for him.  Willems really struggled at Aberdeen. 

Johnson was solid in his 10.1 IP in recovery showing he's still a solid prospect.

Baumler's AFL was mixed/ok.  His 17 IP was solid as well.  I'm still on board with him, but his health question marks are as big as they can be.  I doubt he's here just for the health risk.

An 18 y/o with a 11.9% BB% and 21.7% K%?  WIth a .202 ISO and a .290/.385/.492 slash?  Yeah, that's something to hang a hat on.  Maybe a little Babip-driven, but 7.1 Speed rating on FG as a LHH helps.

I like Bright, but paired with Lord is tough.

Gotta go with Sosa and Johnson.

 

 

I agree.  Johnson is a former #1 pick.  Gotta think that still carries some weight.  Sosa is maybe not as well rounded as Tavera but he’s close as a prospect.

[sportsfan8703]

A noticeable difference in pitchers and international players so far.  Not just the college bats or bats in general like we've had in the recent past.  Elias and Co. are really getting all phases of the machine working.  

[LookinUp]

1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

I like Bright, but paired with Lord is tough.

I feel like a lot of people loved Lord after the draft. Going by memory here. I also doubt Tony has him here, but it's possible the scouts really like him.

[btdart20]

3 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I feel like a lot of people loved Lord after the draft. Going by memory here. I also doubt Tony has him here, but it's possible the scouts really like him.

I recalled someone having more fanfare than Baumeister after the draft (and part of why I faded him yesterday) but could recall who it was.  I think you're right that it was Lord.  So agreed, Lord could surprise me again here too!