Santander for Bieber

[forphase1]

2 hours ago, Jagwar said:

Sometimes you can be such a noodge. It's not about me having no "confidence in the young guys". It's about measured expectations that they will be able to replicate Santander's .800 OPS with 28 HR and 98 RBI. Is it possible? Of course it is possible. Is it so probable that a team with WS aspirations can write it in ink? I don't believe so.   

Just to be clear,  only once in his career has Santander had a .800 OPS or better.   It is possible?  Of course it's possible.   Is it so probable that a team with WS aspirations can write it in ink?  I don't believe so.   

Santander is a good player and a nice piece on the team.   But he isn't so irreplaceable that moving him is suddenly going to crater our offense.  If we replace him we may not get 100% of his production back from Kjerstad or Cowser or whomever ends up with his at bats, but it's likely we replace 80 to 90% of that production, and if it considerably improves other parts of the team such as the pitching staff, then that makes us better over all. 

[E-D-D-I-E]

11 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

That’s because you are greatly overrating a very small sample size and ignoring many other things.

The thing I don’t understand about Os fans (and I’m saying this in general, not about any one in particular) is how we praise Elias for what he has built. We drool over the farm system and the glowing reports about it…and then when it comes time to bring them up or if they don’t immediately produce, we want to toss them aside and forget all of that.

It makes no sense to me. You either believe in these guys or you don’t.

At this point, its not about do you believe in them. You have to.

[Frobby]

I think one thing that distinguishes good organizations is that they are able to accurately judge their own talent.  How many times have we seen Tampa trade a good veteran player and bring someone from the minors who was just as good, or close enough to justify the trade?   I think if the O’s management knows what they’re doing, they’ve got a good idea of what they’d lose (if anything) by replacing Santander with Kjerstad and/or Cowser.   

I don’t want this to sound like I don’t think Santander brings much to the table.  He’s a very useful player and a good clubhouse presence.  But he’s going to be gone in a year, and sometimes you have to give up talent to get talent.  
 

[CP0861]

Why on earth would Cleveland trade 1 year of Bieber for 1 year of Santander?

It would make NO sense for Cleveland. Zip. Zero. Nada.

 

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, CP0861 said:

Why on earth would Cleveland trade 1 year of Bieber for 1 year of Santander?

It would make NO sense for Cleveland. Zip. Zero. Nada.

 

Because their offense is bad and their pitching is pretty good?

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Because their offense is bad and their pitching is pretty good?

And there isn’t much hitting available in FA and Cleveland isn’t likely to hand a big contract anyway.

[CP0861]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Because their offense is bad and their pitching is pretty good?

Obviously. But is Santander the difference maker for Cleveland in 2024?!

So Santander helps their offense for 1 year. Then what? He'll be gone and they'll have nothing to show for either Bieber or Santander.

Santander as part of a package could make sense, but as a 1 for 1, why trade for a single season of a 1 dimensional player who will cost comparable money?

 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 21, 2023 by CP0861

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, CP0861 said:

Obviously. But is Santander the difference maker?!

So Santander helps their offense for 1 year. Then what? He'll be gone and they'll have nothing to show for either Bieber or Santander.

Santander as part of a package could make sense, but as a 1 for 1, why trade for a single season of a 1 dimensional player who will cost comparable money? 

 

 

 

 

Because they want to improve their offense and if this is the best they can do, they may prefer the bat since they have so many arms.

[CP0861]

34 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Because they want to improve their offense and if this is the best they can do, they may prefer the bat since they have so many arms.

 

I guess that's where the disconnect is. I think that if they trade him, they can do better than 1 year of Santander.

If nothing else, instead of trading and paying for a single year of Santander, why not just hold onto Bieber in hopes of trading him at the 2024 deadline? Or holding him for a QO pick?

Wouldn't assuming the risk (of holding him) be a no-brainer considering they'd be left with nothing in 2025 if they traded for Santander??

 

Edited November 21, 2023 by CP0861

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, CP0861 said:

 

I guess that's where the disconnect is. I think that if they trade him, they can do better than 1 year of Santander.

If nothing else, instead of trading and paying for a single year of Santander, why not just hold onto Bieber in hopes of trading him at the 2024 deadline? Or holding him for a QO pick?

Wouldn't assuming the risk (of holding him) be a no-brainer considering they'd be left with nothing in 2025 if they traded for Santander??

 

Well they may do better..but as with any trade discussion, the question isn’t will they do better, it’s will they yes if they can’t?  
 

They may be left with nothing either way, so I’m not aure why you leave open that possibility for AS but act as if it’s not one for Bieber.

I think Bieber is the higher upside play but given his injury last year and declining numbers and velo, I don’t think his value is that high at the moment, at least compared ti what it was.

[btdart20]

4 hours ago, forphase1 said:

Just to be clear,  only once in his career has Santander had a .800 OPS or better.   It is possible?  Of course it's possible.   Is it so probable that a team with WS aspirations can write it in ink?  I don't believe so.   

Santander is a good player and a nice piece on the team.   But he isn't so irreplaceable that moving him is suddenly going to crater our offense.  If we replace him we may not get 100% of his production back from Kjerstad or Cowser or whomever ends up with his at bats, but it's likely we replace 80 to 90% of that production, and if it considerably improves other parts of the team such as the pitching staff, then that makes us better over all. 

His only .800+ OPS season was 2020.  And I typically just write that season off for everyone.

On the flip side, last season he was in spitting distance of .800 and that carries water too.  And .773 the season before.  A pretty strong .780-.785OPS over his last 1300+ PAs is a quality bat in the line-up that many/most teams (including Baltimore) would want.  

The curious case of Santander...

[forphase1]

8 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

His only .800+ OPS season was 2020.  And I typically just write that season off for everyone.

On the flip side, last season he was in spitting distance of .800 and that carries water too.  And .773 the season before.  A pretty strong .780-.785OPS over his last 1300+ PAs is a quality bat in the line-up that many/most teams (including Baltimore) would want.  

The curious case of Santander...

I'm not saying I don't want him.   He's very solid.   But I am saying he isn't so good or valuable that we couldn't trade him to improve other parts of them team,  especially when we have guys ready to step in who would likely replace 80% or more of his value.   But if by trading him we can improve the overall team,  then it makes sense to do so. 

[SilverRocket]

2 hours ago, CP0861 said:

If nothing else, instead of trading and paying for a single year of Santander, why not just hold onto Bieber in hopes of trading him at the 2024 deadline? Or holding him for a QO pick?

Wouldn't assuming the risk (of holding him) be a no-brainer considering they'd be left with nothing in 2025 if they traded for Santander??

They're in similar places contractwise, so whatever (QO, etc.) you can do with one, you can do with the other. This would just be a swap of similar quality players based on positional need.

[Billy F-Face3]

21 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

That’s because you are greatly overrating a very small sample size and ignoring many other things.

The thing I don’t understand about Os fans (and I’m saying this in general, not about any one in particular) is how we praise Elias for what he has built. We drool over the farm system and the glowing reports about it…and then when it comes time to bring them up or if they don’t immediately produce, we want to toss them aside and forget all of that.

It makes no sense to me. You either believe in these guys or you don’t.

For me it's more of a matter of expecting the rookie adjustments and slump like we saw Gunnar go through the 1st half of the season. (And this has been even worst for Cowser and Kjerstad had some bad ABs but he still flashed his potential in MLB.) It usually takes a while for most guys to get their feet uner them in the Big Leagues against that type of competition.

It becomes a matter of trying to stabilize the day to day performance of your lineup and get the production you need to win while you're waiting for your young guys to figure things out, adjust, and take that next step forward in their career.

There isn't any wiggle room for losing anymore. Soften the blow of down performance by having a decent vet that can be platooned with him and you kniw what you're getting.

Then once the young guy figures things out and shows he is developing up to his potential, the job becomes completely his.

It's a gradient type of progression.

[Can_of_corn]

The Pirates did not, in fact, stay in the race.