Who are the 2023 Orioles #19 and #20 prospects?

[Tony-OH]

Who are the 2023 Orioles #19 and #20 prospects?

Last poll for the prospect as 21-25 and 26-30 will be release shortly afterwards.

[RZNJ]

Fabian should be in here but Wagner is not.   Almeyda and Fabian.

[LookinUp]

I still have hope for Wagner, but assume Tony doesn't have him this high. I wanted to vote for him and Baumler.

I just don't know enough about the international guys to have any opinion of whether they belong here, so I went Bright and Willems. 

That said, it seems like Fabian should be above Willems at least, so it was probably a bad vote. If I had to do it over, I'd say Alymeda and Fabian.

[sportsfan8703]

With all that was going on with the big club post deadline… I didn’t realize that Willems put up a sub .600 OPS in A+. Maybe we rushed him a little?  Can he stick at C?  I guess we’ll find out in the write up. 

I went with Almeyda and Fabian. @Tony-OH has me thinking int’l now. Which ain’t bad. 

[btdart20]

Pure upside:  I like Baumler.  But he also has a pretty big risk factor.  He's only paired with Wagner, who has shown flashes but needs to take another step forward IMO.  Bright and Willems don't fit the upside dice roll at this point either.

Almeyda is a bit of 'follow the money' with the signing bonus.  He's paired with Fabian and Arias.

I'm concerned with Fabian's floor, but his upside and team need are good fits. 

But Arias is a bit more of an unknown.  

Almeyda and Arias to continue the international prospect trend.  Could be Almeyda/Fabian as well.

 

[Frobby]

Tough one here.  I went with Almeyda and Fabian.  We paid a lot for Almeyda, more than either Tavera or Basallo, so Koby Perez clearly thought very highly of him and Koby has shown he knows what he’s doing.  Almeyda got hurt and didn’t really get a chance to show what he can do (.600 OPS in only 69 PA), but we’ve seen a lot of our international prospects have a slow start in the DSL and pick it up when they got to the GCL.   So, I don’t think Tony lets him slide out of the top 20.   20 is a good spot for Fabian, who still has upside despite his terrible K rate.   

All the guys listed are interesting.  Arias showed a pretty good bat this year, but his defense was flat out terrible.  He strikes me as a guy who might need to move to the OF, or 2B.
 

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Tough one here.  I went with Almeyda and Fabian.  We paid a lot for Almeyda, more than either Tavera or Basallo, so Koby Perez clearly thought very highly of him and Koby has shown he knows what he’s doing.  Almeyda got hurt and didn’t really get a chance to show what he can do (.600 OPS in only 69 PA), but we’ve seen a lot of our international prospects have a slow start in the DSL and pick it up when they got to the GCL.   So, I don’t think Tony lets him slide out of the top 20.   20 is a good spot for Fabian, who still has upside despite his terrible K rate.   

All the guys listed are interesting.  Arias showed a pretty good bat this year, but his defense was flat out terrible.  He strikes me as a guy who might need to move to the OF, or 2B.
 

The BA write up on Arias suggested it was less than 50/50 but not impossible that he could stay at SS.   He only started 12 games at SS and his numbers are comparable to 18 yo Gunnar in the FCL so you never know.  Arias does have a plus arm.  I have a gut feeling that Almeyda doesn’t stick at SS either.

Edited November 21, 2023 by RZNJ

[SpOkane]

Good chance these 7 round out the Top 25?

[Three Run Homer]

I didn't want to vote for Almeyda but I wanted to vote for Arias because he put up very good offensive numbers at age 18 in the FCL, and there was no other way to vote for Arias other than Arias/Almeyda.   

Fabian...I love secondary skills as much as anyone, but a .176 batting average at Bowie?  I wonder if there's every been a successful major league hitter who hit .176 at AA at age 23.   

[RZNJ]

37 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

I didn't want to vote for Almeyda but I wanted to vote for Arias because he put up very good offensive numbers at age 18 in the FCL, and there was no other way to vote for Arias other than Arias/Almeyda.   

Fabian...I love secondary skills as much as anyone, but a .176 batting average at Bowie?  I wonder if there's every been a successful major league hitter who hit .176 at AA at age 23.   

I can’t top that but Fabian hasn’t had a full season at AA.   I’m interested to see if he can make the adjustments this year.

I’m always reminded of Matt Holliday who, at age 22, hit .276 and OPS .768 in AA.  He returned to AA at age 23 and hit .253 and OPS .708.   
 

You don’t see a guy like that become a star very often.

[Aristotelian]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Fabian should be in here but Wagner is not.   Almeyda and Fabian.

I'm guessing Fabian here as well and Tony seems to be trending toward international guys. 

[e16bball]

1 hour ago, Three Run Homer said:

Fabian...I love secondary skills as much as anyone, but a .176 batting average at Bowie?  I wonder if there's every been a successful major league hitter who hit .176 at AA at age 23.

He’s listed at age 22 for this past season, but as best I can tell, since 2006, the answer to your question is “no.”

James McCann hit .200 back in 2012, which is probably your lowest BA at that age in AA for a reasonably successful ML hitter. Sean Murphy hit .209 in 2017, and now he’s a star. Teoscar Hernandez (2015) and Jeimer Candelario (2016) hit .219.

I actually don’t see anyone who has posted such a poor average at any age at AA and become a recognizable ML player. So that…does not feel like a great sign. Journeyman backup catcher Sandy Leon did hit for a .177 average at age 24, and he has managed to carve out a decent living for himself, so that’s something.

[Three Run Homer]

On 11/21/2023 at 12:16 PM, e16bball said:

He’s listed at age 22 for this past season, but as best I can tell, since 2006, the answer to your question is “no.”

James McCann hit .200 back in 2012, which is probably your lowest BA at that age in AA for a reasonably successful ML hitter. Sean Murphy hit .209 in 2017, and now he’s a star. Teoscar Hernandez (2015) and Jeimer Candelario (2016) hit .219.

I actually don’t see anyone who has posted such a poor average at any age at AA and become a recognizable ML player. So that…does not feel like a great sign. Journeyman backup catcher Sandy Leon did hit for a .177 average at age 24, and he has managed to carve out a decent living for himself, so that’s something.

This is some impressive research, thanks very much.