92 wins, or what’s behind the curtain

[Aristotelian]

5 hours ago, Malike said:

Except, he was in fact worth 2.6 wins. Now if you want to say that Fangraphs is wrong, then they're wrong for everyone. Gibson had a 4.13 FIP and xFIP. He had value last year.

Bbref says 0.9 WAR so his worth in wins is not a fact. His Fangraphs metric is one data point among many.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Bbref says 0.9 WAR so his worth in wins is not a fact. His Fangraphs metric is one data point among many.

Using an inferior stat to prove a point doesn’t actually prove a point.

[drjohnnyfever1]

Curtain.  Hope springs eternal.

I'd be interested to know last year's projections.  We must have outperformed that projection, but by how much did the Division under-perform?  We were +12 wins in the Division.  That seems odd, yet we were +12 against the Central and +10 against the West.

[dystopia]

5 hours ago, Malike said:

Except, he was in fact worth 2.6 wins. Now if you want to say that Fangraphs is wrong, then they're wrong for everyone. Gibson had a 4.13 FIP and xFIP. He had value last year.

Of course he had value. Not 2.6 WAR worth of value, but he had value. He ate innings and provided veteran leadership. That certainly means something. 

[dystopia]

36 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Using an inferior stat to prove a point doesn’t actually prove a point.

Except there’s lots of evidence that fWAR is the inferior WAR when it comes to pitching. rWAR still has issues but fWAR is seriously bad. 
 

rWAR is definitely the inferior WAR for position players, though. 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Except there’s lots of evidence that fWAR is the inferior WAR when it comes to pitching. rWAR still has issues but fWAR is seriously bad. 
 

rWAR is definitely the inferior WAR for position players, though. 

Really?  Show me that “lots of evidence”.

 

[CaptainRedbeard]

16 hours ago, NCRaven said:

Interesting thing is that Szym projects those 92 wins to lead the division.

I’ll bet the Braves are the only team projected to win significantly more than 92, and they might be the only one above 92 at all. Preseason projections tend to group teams closer to .500 than what happens in reality, because the volatility of the “luck” factors that can’t be projected is going to ultimately push some teams higher/lower.

92 wins is a really, really strong projection.

As for whether I’d take 92 wins or curtain, absolutely take the 92 wins. Sure they could easily surpass that, and I might even take the over if that were the Vegas line. But 92 wins is a guaranteed playoff spot, and the value of incremental wins above 92 is not all that huge. Much rather avoid the downside risk of some bad luck that causes them to miss the playoffs. Even with more balanced schedules the AL East is still going to be a gauntlet next year. 

[dystopia]

26 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Really?  Show me that “lots of evidence”.

 

We can start with how Kyle Gibson had a higher fWAR about 2/3 of the way through season than Bradish. That's total BS. 

Since we have been talking about Wade Miley recently, his fWAR was only 1.1 and his rWAR was 2.5, and his RA9-WAR was 3.4. Given he had an ERA of 3.13, the latter two are certainly closer to reality.

The issue here really is that bWAR is a reflection of what actually happened while fWAR is a reflection of what "should have" happened, which doesn't make much sense when it comes to calculating how many wins a pitcher was worth over that year. 

The big issue with rWAR is it can produce some crazy results occasionally, like the 9.7 WAR for Aaron Nola in 2018 when it overcorrected for the Phillies' historically bad defense that year. Usually, however, I prefer rWAR for pitching over fWAR. I prefer RA9-WAR over both.

[Sports Guy]

57 minutes ago, dystopia said:

We can start with how Kyle Gibson had a higher fWAR about 2/3 of the way through season than Bradish. That's total BS. 

Since we have been talking about Wade Miley recently, his fWAR was only 1.1 and his rWAR was 2.5, and his RA9-WAR was 3.4. Given he had an ERA of 3.13, the latter two are certainly closer to reality.

The issue here really is that bWAR is a reflection of what actually happened while fWAR is a reflection of what "should have" happened, which doesn't make much sense when it comes to calculating how many wins a pitcher was worth over that year. 

The big issue with rWAR is it can produce some crazy results occasionally, like the 9.7 WAR for Aaron Nola in 2018 when it overcorrected for the Phillies' historically bad defense that year. Usually, however, I prefer rWAR for pitching over fWAR. I prefer RA9-WAR over both.

Got it, so there is no evidence except your conjecture, bias and lack of understanding of the stat.

Thats about what I figured.

[btdart20]

2 hours ago, drjohnnyfever1 said:

Curtain.  Hope springs eternal.

I'd be interested to know last year's projections.  We must have outperformed that projection, but by how much did the Division under-perform?  We were +12 wins in the Division.  That seems odd, yet we were +12 against the Central and +10 against the West.

We were projected pretty low for all things FG related.  IIRC last in the AL East.  

92 might be the most in the AL East in this projection.

[IllinoisOsFan]

After a dream season where the O's went 35-18 in one-run games or games that went into extra innings, I'll take 22 over .500.

Also, I think Bautista missing over an entire year will be impactful. 

[dystopia]

21 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Got it, so there is no evidence except your conjecture, bias and lack of understanding of the stat.

Thats about what I figured.

The only reason you like it and other advanced stats is because it gives you an excuse to act like the smartest guy in the room.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, dystopia said:

The only reason you like it and other advanced stats is because it gives you an excuse to act like the smartest guy in the room.

Yea that’s it. It has nothing to do with the idea that it factors in the things pitchers control and park factors.

FFS, your response here was immature, idiotic and flat out stupid. 
 

You want to not educate yourself? Fine.  You want to hang onto the glory days of what baseball card stats said in the 50s.  Have at it.  But don’t cry because you don’t understand something and choose to ignore things.  That’s a you problem, not a me problem. Keep your head buried in the sand and choose to not learn more beyond what you believe you know.  Seems like a worthwhile trait and quality to have.

[Aristotelian]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Really?  Show me that “lots of evidence”.

 

It thinks Gibson is worth 2.6 wins is evidence enough for me.

[Frobby]

58 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

We were projected pretty low for all things FG related.  IIRC last in the AL East.  

92 might be the most in the AL East in this projection.

He said it was.