Sonny Gray to St Louis

[oriole]

1 hour ago, Three Run Homer said:

In some cases the value remains extremely well-hidden.  

Gibson was useful for what he was. Irvin has been a bit of a swing and a miss so far, but hey…that’s what happens when shopping for discounts or whatever. 
 

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

You feel good about GRod and Means but we absolutely cannot count on them.  Got it.

Yes. It’s called optimism vs reality. It’s not that difficult.

[drjohnnyfever1]

2 hours ago, Three Run Homer said:

We should have been willing to at least match 3/$75.   It's a lot of money but the other top of the rotation starters on the market will cost more in terms of years and dollars. 

It's possible that Gray would have taken STL's offer even if Elias had offered the same terms, since STL has the reputation of being a winning organization, although you would think that players who want to play with a winner would see Baltimore as an attractive destination these days.  

Unfortunately I have no reason to believe that the O's will wind up signing or trading for anyone better than Gray this offseason.  

Well, I just don't think this is our aisle, 3/$75.  And better than Gray is relative to last year's performance.  They are gonna get a pitcher or two or three for spots on the club.  Whether it's middle relief, start of the rotation, or end, but they are not going to spend 3/$75 until they are in the thick of it again this season, or until next season.  Don't ask me why I feel that other than "feeling."  And that is, admittedly, totally subjective.  Could they go out and spend?  Sure.  Do I think that is going to happen? No.  They'll get 3 underpriced/underappreciated, 3-4's, coach them up, and hope for the best fitting them where they can fill a need and, maybe, excel.  And that's fine with me and that dive in the pool makes no splash - which will upset some people, but it's fine with me if we remain competitive and in the mix.

[foxfield]

Personally I don’t think the O’s would have balked at the salary. I think it was the cost of a draft pick. 

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, oriole said:

Gibson was useful for what he was. Irvin has been a bit of a swing and a miss so far, but hey…that’s what happens when shopping for discounts or whatever. 
 

Yes. It’s called optimism vs reality. It’s not that difficult.

The reality is that GRod was considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball and pitched exactly like that the 2nd half of the year.  He was a different pitcher after he came back up.   It’s certainly realistic to count on him being a very strong member of the rotation.

John Means has always been valuable when he’s pitched.  Depending on the flavor of WAR, he was a 2.5 to 3+ WAR pitcher in 2019 and 2021.   Only the team really knows his medical outlook but reports are that he should be healthy entering the 2024 season.  I am not saying I’m 100% counting on him but I am counting on him to be a productive pitcher for as long as his health holds up.   I certainly think it’s realistic to count on him as a solid member of the rotation heading into next season.   So, we have 3 members of the rotation who have never had serious arm issues and a 4th who should be fully recovered from his TJ surgery by ST.

[Three Run Homer]

1 hour ago, foxfield said:

Personally I don’t think the O’s would have balked at the salary. I think it was the cost of a draft pick. 

That's definitely a drawback for Gray and some of the others on the market.  However, my understanding is that the O's would lose their 2nd round pick if they sign a free agent who turned down a qualifying offer--and they have three higher picks that they would keep (including the pick for Gunnar being ROY and their competitive balance pick).  

[forphase1]

2 hours ago, Three Run Homer said:

That's definitely a drawback for Gray and some of the others on the market.  However, my understanding is that the O's would lose their 2nd round pick if they sign a free agent who turned down a qualifying offer--and they have three higher picks that they would keep (including the pick for Gunnar being ROY and their competitive balance pick).  

While I think that's right, the pick still has quite a bit of value to it,  and likely factored into the Os decision on how serious and how much they were willing to go after Gray.

[Billy F-Face3]

Gray said in his press conference that he wanted to play for the Cardinals since last offseason. And the Cardinals had been in on Gray ever since he played in college for Vanderbilt. The money was just a side factor.

Based on what Sonny Gray said, it seams to have been pre-determined and because of that, it would have taken an outrageously insane amount of money (bad deal for an organization) to convince him to go anywhere else. The money wasn't that bad for the Cardinals, because he wanted to go to St. Louis the whole time.

[Sports Guy]

Notes on Gray contract, as well as Gibson.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/details-on-sonny-gray-kyle-gibson-contracts.html

[Just Regular]

Gray beats Glasnow 25-20 at salary difference between two of the different years in a long-term contract for end of Arb/FA years.    I have more belief in the Cardinals to actually pay the player their money in the high years.

[LookinUp]

On 11/27/2023 at 10:49 PM, Three Run Homer said:

That's definitely a drawback for Gray and some of the others on the market.  However, my understanding is that the O's would lose their 2nd round pick if they sign a free agent who turned down a qualifying offer--and they have three higher picks that they would keep (including the pick for Gunnar being ROY and their competitive balance pick).  

My understanding is the O's would lose their 3rd highest pick, which is in the 30-34 overall range, rather than their 2nd round pick, which is closer to 60.