Chourio to get 8/80..Os should do the same for Holliday

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Do you agree he’d have to turn out better than Dansby Swanson in order to justify it?  And are you willing to bet $110 mm that he will be better than Swanson, before Holliday has played a major league game?   Swanson was a 1:1 pick, ranked the no. 3 prospect before his first full season in the majors, and was worth 14.7 rWAR/16.3 fWAR through his Arb years.  He signed a big FA contract, but even so he will only have earned $61 mm through 8 years of service, $89 mm through 9.    

Yea that’s fine. I’m willing to take that chance.  I’d sign him and Henderson tomorrow.

As I have said a lot, I think these deals are very overrated by fans but I’d still do them, especially in cases where we can keep a guy on his prime years an extra 1-3 years. (Probably only 1 or 2)

I’m not as gung ho about getting Adley done for that reason but I do want to get these 2 done.  We won’t get much discount but getting them signed means we can keep them longer and that’s good enough for me.

Edited November 30, 2023 by Sports Guy

[emmett16]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

That’s why I said it was a little too much of a generalization.  And I certainly have no idea about Chourio specifically.  

I realize you prefaced it.  It wasn’t really a critique, but more of a FYI.  

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

That’s why I said it was a little too much of a generalization.  And I certainly have no idea about Chourio specifically.  

lol…don’t offend the overly sensitive.

There was nothing wrong with what you said. Facts are what they are. 

[NCRaven]

Jackson was the 1-1 draft pick and probably got a much larger bonus than Chourio did as an international free agent in Venezuela.  As Corn pointed out earlier, his father earned nearly $159 million over his career.  The Holliday's aren't hurting for money.  I doubt he would extend before hitting free agency, but I'm sure it would require a record breaking deal.  I like the Chourio framework, 8 years with options, but it would take a lot more money for sure.

[emmett16]

21 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

The dude said it himself back in 2018, I'm not making it up. https://www.mlb.com/news/mike-elias-introduced-as-orioles-gm-c300896840

I'll now wait for your reply that says that he didn't really say that, that's not what he meant or somehow twist what he said to further your argument about how I "think so little of Elias" that he believes he can just get MVP level talents "on a whim."

Nowhere did I say that Elias thinks he can do it "on a whim."  Nowhere did I say that Elias thinks it's easy.  But Elias' goal since Day 1 has been crystal clear...and that is to have a continuous amount of elite talent flowing through the pipeline.  There are several obvious reasons as to why he'd want to do that, IMO one of them is to replace guys that Angelos doesn't want to pay to extend.  That's a roundabout way to beat the "Angelos is cheap" dead horse that everyone loves to continue to beat on.  Of course Angelos isn't going to pay 8/80 or something similar for Holliday, but at some point Elias is going to have to replace that talent with...well, more cheap, cost controlled young talent.  

If that makes it sound like Elias is arrogant, fine.  He should be, he's damn good at what he does.  But arrogance doesn't mean that he thinks what he does is easy, or that I think what he does is easy.  I can't help it if you confuse arrogance with people thinking their jobs are easy.

It’s funny to me that people can read the quote you listed that explicitly cites their goals and intentions, But then he makes the comment “a pitcher that would figure in to the top half of our rotation would be a wonderful addition” and folks think that means their primary goal is to trade away their elite  developed talent for someone else’s #1 SP, and if they don’t so that they are going against what they stated as a plan and are therefore failures.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, NCRaven said:

Jackson was the 1-1 draft pick and probably got a much larger bonus than Chourio did as an international free agent in Venezuela.  As Corn pointed out earlier, his father earned nearly $159 million over his career.  The Holliday's aren't hurting for money.  I doubt he would extend before hitting free agency, but I'm sure it would require a record breaking deal.  I like the Chourio framework, 8 years with options, but it would take a lot more money for sure.

His dads money has nothing to do with him.

If he signs the deal I said, he would be getting full money for his 7 years of service time and would be getting around 25-30M a year for his 2 FA years.

He may not be leaving any money on the table at all by doing that and even if he does, it’s minimal and this gives him the gtd amount.

This actually isn’t even a great deal for the Os. Normally in this deals, you want to save money. The Os really aren’t even doing that but it’s worth it to keep him here what could he 2-4 years longer.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea that’s fine. I’m willing to take that chance.

Big of you.    But would Elias?   

Since I mentioned Seager: he was worth 21.2 rWAR, 21.8 fWAR through his Arb years.   He’s been paid $95.5 mm through 8 years, and it will be $130 mm through 9 years.   So that’s about how good Holliday needs to be to justify the numbers you proposed.   

Now, one could argue that in the proposed deal, you are paying only for a player’s prime years, whereas the Swanson/Seager deals run to ages 35/37.  So maybe you’d pay a little more for the first 8/9 years to not be bogged down paying for some of the decline years.

 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Frobby said:

Big of you.    But would Elias?   

Since I mentioned Seager: he was worth 21.2 rWAR, 21.8 fWAR through his Arb years.   He’s been paid $95.5 mm through 8 years, and it will be $130 mm through 9 years.   So that’s about how good Holliday needs to be to justify the numbers you proposed.   

Now, one could argue that in the proposed deal, you are paying only for a player’s prime years, whereas the Swanson/Seager deals run to ages 35/37.  So maybe you’d pay a little more for the first 8/9 years to not be bogged down paying for some of the decline years.

 

You asked me, you didn’t ask Elias.

 

[sportsfan8703]

The O’s equivalent to the Chourio deal is Bassalo. Not Holliday. How many here would give Bassalo 8/80 a year from now?

Edited November 30, 2023 by sportsfan8703

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

His dads money has nothing to do with him.

If he signs the deal I said, he would be getting full money for his 7 years of service time and would be getting around 25-30M a year for his 2 FA years.

He may not be leaving any money on the table at all by doing that and even if he does, it’s minimal and this gives him the gtd amount.

This actually isn’t even a great deal for the Os. Normally in this deals, you want to save money. The Os really aren’t even doing that but it’s worth it to keep him here what could he 2-4 years longer.

I agree this is a better deal for Holliday than it is for the Orioles, at this stage (no established level of major league performance).   I don’t agree his dad’s money is irrelevant.  At a mimimum, he doesn’t need to worry about supporting any member of his family other than himself.   

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You asked me, you didn’t ask Elias.

 

I suspect I know Elias’ answer.  

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The O’s equivalent to the Chourio deal is Bassalo. Not Holliday. How many here would give Bassalo 8/80 a year from now?

Let’s see if Basallo is the no. 2 prospect in baseball a year from now, and if he’s major league ready. 

[RZNJ]

18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

lol…don’t offend the overly sensitive.

There was nothing wrong with what you said. Facts are what they are. 

I had no problem with what Frobby said before I saw this.   Now …….…. I got a bad feeling about it.  

[emmett16]

9 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The O’s equivalent to the Chourio deal is Bassalo. Not Holliday. How many here would give Bassalo 8/80 a year from now?

I’ll tell you in a year  

[Just Regular]

Holliday commanding $8mm not $2mm I think is in part a byproduct of not being able to affiliate until age 18.    I'm confident Elias could have got him for less in 10th grade with different acquisition rules.

12.4.2003 J. Holliday is 320/449/490 in 671 PA

3.11.2004 J. Chourio is 286/347/490 in 1211 PA

8.13.2004 S. Basallo is 291/378/497 in 817 PA

Higher degree of difficulty to Chourio, who was so precocious he made AA out of camp last spring at ~19.1 years old, basically same as Basallo was when he got his Baysox cup of coffee.