Chourio to get 8/80..Os should do the same for Holliday

[RZNJ]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

You have no idea how his dad deals with his money. But yes, he doesn’t have to support his family but he’s still an individual who likely wants to be able to stand on his own 2 feet and being handed 120ishM at age 20 is tough to turn down no matter what your family’s portfolio looks like.

I think I could stand on my own two feet with the 8M signing bonus.   “Dad, I can’t get my own place.  I only have 4M in the bank.  I gotta sign away some FA years for some quick cash”.

[E-D-D-I-E]

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Huh?

In what reality did Matt Wieters BOMB?

He had a very nice career.

 

Nice career yes. Someone you would have extended before he came to the big leagues? I would consider him in the same prospect category as Holliday, they were both #1. 

1) Was Weiters less than "expected"? Yes

2) if you would have extended him prior to his big league callup, would it have been a good move? No. That's the point of my argument.

[E-D-D-I-E]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Saying Wieters bombed is factually wrong. He didn’t meet a lot of expectations but he absolutely didn’t bomb.

And yes, that is the level of talent Holliday is and that’s why he was taken first. Whether he becomes that or not remains to be seen but in the context of the discussion you quoted and what this thread is about, Elias isn’t going to think he can just acquire Holliday level talent anytime he wants.

No and he shouldn't expect that. But my point is to "We should extend Holliday now". Weiters is an example of a #1 who ended up not being worthy of an extension prior to him playing in the big leagues. Learn from history. Too many can't misses, don't end up as they were "expected". That kind of contract would hurt our organization if he isn't "as expected" and becomes Frazier.

Only my opinion.

[Billy F-Face3]

Mathematically this makes no sense. Holiday is under team controls for at least 6 years and probably more because he hasn't played a single At Bat in the Majors yet. 

So if you get 3 years of league minimum vs the $10M AAV, that's $27,840,000 MORE we are paying him in those 3 years. Let's add another $5M (assuming a $5M salary) in year4 / Arb1. Then another $3M (assuming a $7M salary) in year 5 Arb2.  Then let's assume he hits payday and gets $15M arbitration bucks in year 6. Subtract $5.

Assuming the next 2 years would be free agent money of $25 per, we can Subtract $30M.

 

I was being generous with the arbitration guesses. And even then, the net result is that you're paying nearly an extra million dollars that you didn't have to, assuming all goes according to plan and he can play out the length of entire contract healthy. And assuming he's good. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Mathematically this makes no sense. Holiday is under team controls for at least 6 years and probably more because he hasn't played a single At Bat in the Majors yet. 

So if you get 3 years of league minimum vs the $10M AAV, that's $27,840,000 MORE we are paying him in those 3 years. Let's add another $5M (assuming a $5M salary) in year4 / Arb1. Then another $3M (assuming a $7M salary) in year 5 Arb2.  Then let's assume he hits payday and gets $15M arbitration bucks in year 6. Subtract $5.

Assuming the next 2 years would be free agent money of $25 per, we can Subtract $30M.

 

I was being generous with the arbitration guesses. And even then, the net result is that you're paying nearly an extra million dollars that you didn't have to, assuming all goes according to plan and he can play out the length of entire contract healthy. And assuming he's good. 

Generous?

You are aware that multiple players have hit the 10M mark as an Arb 1 right?

 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Generous?

You are aware that multiple players have hit the 10M mark as an Arb 1 right?

 

Well, that’s pretty rare.   Still, $5/$7/$15 mm isn’t that generous.  Holliday’s own father made more than that, and that was more than 15 years ago.  

To answer @Billy F-Face3’s question directly, the reason you’d do this is to grab those three prime FA seasons at a pretty reasonable price without having to sign the guy until he’s 35-40 years old in order to get the prime years.   But I doubt Elias would do the deal SG proposed.  

 

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, that’s pretty rare.   Still, $5/$7/$15 mm isn’t that generous.  Holliday’s own father made more than that, and that was more than 15 years ago.  

To answer @Billy F-Face3’s question directly, the reason you’d do this is to grab those three prime FA seasons at a pretty reasonable price without having to sign the guy until he’s 35-40 years old in order to get the prime years.   But I doubt Elias would do the deal SG proposed.  

 

JA definitely wouldn’t and he’s the one that matters…unfortunately.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

JA definitely wouldn’t and he’s the one that matters…unfortunately.

The reason I mention Elias is that I don’t think he’d do it even if Angelos gave him the green light (which, I agree, is  highly doubtful).   

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The reason I mention Elias is that I don’t think he’d do it even if Angelos gave him the green light (which, I agree, is  highly doubtful).   

Oh I disagree there. I think Elias knows he can’t keep the super star guys here unless they sign them early and Holliday is a clear and obvious favorite of his.

Would he prefer to wait 1-2 years? I would say that’s likely but he knows the longer he waits, the harder it will become to do it, especially with a Boras client.

[Can_of_corn]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, that’s pretty rare.   Still, $5/$7/$15 mm isn’t that generous.  Holliday’s own father made more than that, and that was more than 15 years ago.  

To answer @Billy F-Face3’s question directly, the reason you’d do this is to grab those three prime FA seasons at a pretty reasonable price without having to sign the guy until he’s 35-40 years old in order to get the prime years.   But I doubt Elias would do the deal SG proposed.  

 

Of course I'm aware it's rare, and I didn't suggest that I thought he would get that much.

But 5/7/15 isn't generous for a guy drafted 1-1 that is being rated as the top prospect in the game.  I thought showing how high arb 1 numbers have historically gone was a good way to show that.  Guys have made more in Arb 1 than he's "generously" predicting for arb 2.

What I want to know is if the award payments guys like Adley, Bradish and Gunnar are getting are looked at when they get to arbitration.

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

But 5/7/15 isn't generous for a guy drafted 1-1 that is being rated as the top prospect in the game.  I thought showing how high arb 1 numbers have historically gone was a good way to show that.  Guys have made more in Arb 1 than he's "generously" predicting for arb 2.

What I want to know is if the award payments guys like Adley, Bradish and Gunnar are getting are looked at when they get to arbitration.

 

I was just noodling to see what the current crop of premium shortstops who were done with their arb years had made through their arbitration years.   Here’s the list:

Lindor $52 mm

Turner $46 mm (was a Super-2; made $25 mm through Arb 3)

Baez $29 mm

Seager $27 mm

Correa $27 mm

Bogaerts $25 mm

Swanson $21 mm

Both Correa and Seager had some injury setbacks, or they would have made more.   But injuries are part of the risk.  The other risk is that Holliday isn’t as good as some of these guys.

 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I was just noodling to see what the current crop of premium shortstops who were done with their arb years had made through their arbitration years.   Here’s the list:

Lindor $52 mm

Turner $46 mm (was a Super-2; made $25 mm through Arb 3)

Baez $29 mm

Seager $27 mm

Correa $27 mm

Bogaerts $25 mm

Swanson $21 mm

Both Correa and Seager had some injury setbacks, or they would have made more.   But injuries are part of the risk.  The other risk is that Holliday isn’t as good as some of these guys.

 

Or that he ends up at second base, which fair or not, would lower his numbers.

[Frobby]

35 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Oh I disagree there. I think Elias knows he can’t keep the super star guys here unless they sign them early and Holliday is a clear and obvious favorite of his.

Would he prefer to wait 1-2 years? I would say that’s likely but he knows the longer he waits, the harder it will become to do it, especially with a Boras client.

I just think the risk/reward ratio of the deal you proposed wouldn’t be to Elias’ liking at the moment.   It really only works if Holliday is a Seager-level star.  And that’s a big bet to make, with a ton of downside risk.

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I just think the risk/reward ratio of the deal you proposed wouldn’t be to Elias’ liking at the moment.   It really only works if Holliday is a Seager-level star.  And that’s a big bet to make, with a ton of downside risk.

In not sure why he has to be a Seager level star unless you are solely talking about his 2 FA years and I’m not sure if by then, 30M is MVP level money.  That’s about 4 wins right now. 

[Frobby]

34 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

In not sure why he has to be a Seager level star unless you are solely talking about his 2 FA years and I’m not sure if by then, 30M is MVP level money.  That’s about 4 wins right now. 

Let’s just go through the 7 players I listed above.   

1.  Lindor was worth 31.1 rWAR through his Arb Years.  He was paid $52 mm through then, and as a FA is making $34.1 mm/yr.  But he played about 60% of a season his rookie year, so it took him 7 seasons to become a free agent.  So, that’s $86 mm through 8 years, $120 mm through 9.  Less than the 8/$100 proposal, a little more than the 9/$110 mm proposal.

2.  Turner was worth 29.6 rWAR through his Arb years.  He was a super-2 who earned $46 mm through his 4 Arb years, and took 7 years to become a FA.  He’s earning $27.2 mm/yr as a FA.  So that’s $73 mm through 8 years, $100 mm through 9.   Less that you are guaranteeing Holliday.   

3.  Seager was worth 21.2 rWAR through his Arb years, getting a September call-up that we’ll ignore for these purposes.  He earned $27 mm through 6 full seasons, and is making $32.5 mm/yr now.  So that’s $92 mm through 8 years, $124.5 mm through 9.   Less than you’re guaranteeing Holliday if it’s 8/$100 mm, more if it’s 9/$110 mm.

4.  Baez was worth 23.4 rWAR through his Arb years.  He played two partial seasons before becoming a full time player; let’s treat that as one season where he got called up in June.  So that would have been 7 years to earn $29 mm (it actually took him 8).  He’s earning $23.3 mm/yr as a free agent, so $55 mm though 8 years, $82 mm through 9.  Far less than you’d guarantee Holliday.

5.  Correa was worth 34.1 rWAR through his Arb years.  He was a June debut, so it took him 7 years to get to free agency.  He earned $27 mm to that point.  Since then he’s made $35.1 and $33.3 mm, so $62 mm through 8 years, $95 mm through 9.   Less than the Holliday guarantee.

6.  Bogaerts was worth 22.7 rWAR through his Arb years.   He had a late August debut that we’ll ignore.  He earned $25 mm through his arb years, then $20 mm/yr the next three under an extension he’d signed   So, $65 mm through 8 years, $85 mm through 9.   Less than the Holliday guarantee.

7.  Swanson was worth $14.7 mm through his Arb years.  He also had an August debut we’ll ignore.  He earned $21 mm through his Arb years.   His contact is worth $25.3 mm/yr, so that’s $72 mm through 8 years, $97 mm through 9.   Less than the Holliday guarantee.

So, as I see it, only Lindor and Seager topped 9/$110, which is what you’re guaranteeing Holliday before he’s played a game.   The other five players, all of whom have been very good players who got lucrative FA deals, all made less than that through 9 seasons.

Now, how could you justify it?   Well, all those guys are under contract at high prices for years in which they will be well past their prime.  Holliday would not be.   You are getting what should be his very best seasons without any mid-to-late 30’s baggage.   But that’s still a lot of risk.