MLB Offseason Moves/Rumor Thread

[interloper]

1 hour ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

 

And this is why it's hard for us to trade for pitching. We don't have a ML SP prospect like Pepiot that we're prepared to give up. The closest analogue would be Grayson or Hall, and there's just no way we're giving that up for a guy like Cease or Burnes or whomever. 

You have to trade starting pitching to get starting pitching. We don't have it. It's making it hard to consummate a trade. Teams aren't just going to take our infielders for their starting pitching. We have to include pitchers. 

[Pickles]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

First of all, you have no idea what they are getting offered.  The market determines what is an overpay and since you have no idea what the market is saying, it’s foolish to say it is.

And you absolutely can make the argument that Cease for one extra year and less money than Glasnow makes for one year is worth significantly more.  How much more is determined by the market.

Losing Ortiz is irrelevant to the Os in terms of saying, Ortiz isn’t someone you walk away from the deal over. This is really all about who you pair with him.

If the WS are getting offered either young established MLers and/or borderline top 50 guys, this is obviously not an overpay.

Now, if the market is saying the best they can get (in terms of a headliner) is a prospect that is really more of a top 75 guy, then yes, this would be an overpay.  

For me, I would rather overpay than not get him. As long as we aren’t trading any of our top 3 or the obvious ML guys, I don’t particularly care. The depth is there everywhere and I trust that Elias can replenish talent that we lose. 

Neither do you, but you don't let that stop you from saying it isn't an overpay, so by your own standards, you're being foolish. 

And that's where we differ.  I'd rather not get him than give up more than he's worth.  IMO, Cowser and Ortiz can have prominent roles on this team going forward.  I'm not COMPELLED to give that up for Cease.

He's not the only pitcher in the world, and I don't think we need to upgrade the rotation for the regular season, but I agree with you and others we should be looking to upgrade the playoff rotation.  If something doesn't get done this offseason, there's always the deadline and perhaps a more favorable opportunity.  

 

[Just Regular]

If you think Andrew Friedman and Mike Elias' valuations on signing bonuses are ballpark sound, those guessed Cowser was 9X the prospect Pepiot was starting out.

Pepiot's ahead of Cowser in demonstrating some MLB aptitude.

[btdart20]

17 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

A top 50 pitching prospect is worth more than a top 50 position player.  Pepiot is more valuable than Cowser.  He's certainly more valuable than a package of Ortiz and Norby.  

Depends.  Talking heads gave SDP flack for not getting a position player stud for Soto.

[Spy Fox]

1 minute ago, Just Regular said:

If you think Andrew Friedman and Mike Elias' valuations on signing bonuses are ballpark sound, those guessed Cowser was 9X the prospect Pepiot was starting out.

Pepiot's ahead of Cowser in demonstrating some MLB aptitude.

Was just going to say this. Something important Pepiot has that Cowser/Ortiz do not yet is about a half season's worth (78 innings) of pretty good results against MLB competition.

[Pickles]

4 minutes ago, StottyByNature said:

I suppose reasonable minds can disagree but I absolutely think Cease is 2x more valuable than Glasnow.  You get him for two seasons and he has been significantly more healthy than Glasnow.  Glasnow has only gone over 100 innings once.  Cease is also relatively cheaper.  

Well, in that case you'd probably be comfortable giving up Cowser and Ortiz.  As you said, reasonable minds can disagree.

[Pickles]

4 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

If you think Andrew Friedman and Mike Elias' valuations on signing bonuses are ballpark sound, those guessed Cowser was 9X the prospect Pepiot was starting out.

Pepiot's ahead of Cowser in demonstrating some MLB aptitude.

Sure, but if anybody is going to discount Cowser based on 78 ML PAs then you walk away.

[interloper]

I think it should be a rule that if we're proposing trades for someone like Cease, we have to stop saying "Cowser and Ortiz" and we have to start saying "Cowser and Ortiz and Povich" or "Westburg and Hall" or "Ortiz and McDermott". 

Edited December 13, 2023 by interloper

[Frobby]

38 minutes ago, Pickles said:

This continues to suggest two of our 4-6 prospects is a serious overpay for Dylan Cease.

I don’t see why.   Pepiot was in the range of our 4-6 prospects, has performed well at the major league level and still has 6 years of service remaining.  They are getting one year of Glasnow, who’s a good pitcher when healthy but is oft-injured and has never thrown more than 120 innings in a season.  Cease has a good track record of health and has two years of service remaining.  

Margot is also part of this trade, but if the Rays kept him they’d be on the hook for $10 mm this year plus a $2 mm option buyout next year.  He was worth 0.6 rWAR last year and I suspect Tampa is happy to have him off the books.  
 

[OriolesMagic83]

7 minutes ago, Pickles said:

LOL.  Says who?  History would suggest the exact opposite.

Pepiot was a top 60 guy coming into this year and was oft-injured.

Cowser was a top 30 guy who had a very good AAA season and made his ML debut.  Pepiot has nowhere near the value of Cowser.

Cowser and Pepiot both played in the majors in MLB (Pepiot also saw limited action w/ the Dodgers in 2022).  Cowser hit .115 w/ a .433 OPS and Pepiot pitched 42 inning including 3 starts w/ a 2.14 ERA.  I would say that even if Cowser and Pepiot were seen as similarly valued prospects, Pepiot's MLB success would put him ahead of Cowser.

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t see why.   Pepiot was in the range of our 4-6 prospects, has performed well at the major league level and still has 6 years of service remaining.  They are getting one year of Glasnow, who’s a good pitcher when healthy but is oft-injured and has never thrown more than 120 innings in a season.  Cease has a good track record of health and has two years of service remaining.  

Margot is also part of this trade, but if the Rays kept him they’d be on the hook for $10 mm this year plus a $2 mm option buyout next year.  He was worth 0.6 rWAR last year and I suspect Tampa is happy to have him off the books.  
 

I probably overestimated Glasnow in regards to Cease, as @StottyByNature, has likewise pointed out.

IMO, Cowser and Ortiz is 2x the value of what the Rays just received for Glasnow and I don't believe Cease has 2x the value of Glasnow.

Some people might, and I can't argue it, because it's an opinion and a valid one.

[Spy Fox]

3 minutes ago, interloper said:

And this is why it's hard for us to trade for pitching. We don't have a ML SP prospect like Pepiot that we're prepared to give up. The closest analogue would be Grayson or Hall, and there's just no way we're giving that up for a guy like Cease or Burnes or whomever. 

You have to trade starting pitching to get starting pitching. We don't have it. It's making it hard to consummate a trade. Teams aren't just going to take our infielders for their starting pitching. We have to include pitchers. 

Do you have to? Scherzer/Verlander were traded this summer for only position player prospects. There was the Lopez/Arraez deal last year. The two headliners of the Luis Castillo trade were position players. There might be some teams who only want to trade their pitching for younger pitching, but I don't see any trend saying it's much more difficult to trade hitters for pitchers. 

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Cowser and Pepiot both played in the majors in MLB (Pepiot also saw limited action w/ the Dodgers in 2022).  Cowser hit .115 w/ a .433 OPS and Pepiot pitched 42 inning including 3 starts w/ a 2.14 ERA.  I would say that even if Cowser and Pepiot were seen as similarly valued prospects, Pepiot's MLB success would put him ahead of Cowser.

Again, if anybody I'm dealing with tries to discount Cowser because of his ML time, then I'm not engaging with them in a serious way because they're not serious people.

[OriolesMagic83]

4 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Again, if anybody I'm dealing with tries to discount Cowser because of his ML time, then I'm not engaging with them in a serious way because they're not serious people.

Ok fine, don't take a player's MLB success seriously, but I seem to mistakenly believe the whole point of prospects is to end up w/ successful MLB players.  Carry on.

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Neither do you, but you don't let that stop you from saying it isn't an overpay, so by your own standards, you're being foolish. 

And that's where we differ.  I'd rather not get him than give up more than he's worth.  IMO, Cowser and Ortiz can have prominent roles on this team going forward.  I'm not COMPELLED to give that up for Cease.

He's not the only pitcher in the world, and I don't think we need to upgrade the rotation for the regular season, but I agree with you and others we should be looking to upgrade the playoff rotation.  If something doesn't get done this offseason, there's always the deadline and perhaps a more favorable opportunity.  

 

Imagine thinking you don’t want to overpay now but yet you are ok with waiting until the deadline, when you overpay way more than you do in the offseason.  It’s just not logical.  
 

Ortiz isn’t playing a prominent role on this team unless Westburg, Henderson or Holliday are dealt.  Ortiz may figure into things for (some of) 2023 depending on their plan for Holliday but that’s it and Holliday isn’t staying in the minors for long.

So if you wait, Ortiz is that much older and may or may not have lost value.  It’s just a foolish chance to take on a player that is quite frankly, very redundant for us.

Now, if it’s Westburg instead of Cowser (my preference) then by all means, you keep Ortiz and he becomes an important piece in 2023.

To me, this is solely about Cowser (if he is the headliner). If you are good with him being the headliner in this deal, that should be enough.

If we have learned anything, it’s that there is no chance the Os are signing a difference making pitcher.  They wouldn’t (and of course shouldn’t) even beat the deal Lugo got.  They aren’t paying that much.  You thought ERod was realistic. He never was. He should have been but he never was. The only way this is happening is via trade.

And quite frankly, considering the pedestal you hold put Elias on, I’m surprised you are even remotely worried about losing some of these guys. Elias should be able to replace guys with relative ease especially with how well the intl guys are doing and the 3 top 35ish picks they have this July.