MLB Offseason Moves/Rumor Thread

[bpilktree]

33 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

But did we?  His numbers tumbled again in August and September.  Did we suddenly unfix his swing?  Or did they put the shift back in and I missed it?  All I'm saying is last year was a mixed bag... he had a few months where he was really good and hot and a few months where he was the same as when he was with the Royals.  Which is the real O'Hearn?  Or a mixture?  I don't think he has nearly enough of a track record of being good for us to count on him being a .800+ OPS hitter this year.   I'd love to see it,  but I far from expect it even think it's going to happen. 

He had an awful end of September when he went 0-21.  The 1st through the 22nd of the month he had an OPS of .959.   He finished in the 94th percentile in MLB in hard hit percentage.  His exit velocity was 89th percentile.  His walk rate is the one big concern but when he swings and makes contact is one of the hardest hitters in the game.  He might not repeat those numbers in 2024 but he is a guy that deserves the first 2 months or so to prove he can’t.  

[Moose Milligan]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I have some confidence in OHearn because he hits the ball hard and it wasn’t just 2023 either. Throughout his career he has had high Ev, barrel and hard hit%. He isn’t a huge strikeout guy and his chasing numbers haven’t been bad in his career.

He has less than 1450 PA in his career, going back to 2018. He averages an extra base hit every 12 PA.

Just to compare him to a few guys, Santander averages an XBH every 17 PA. Mountcastle is every 15 PA.

He has, generally speaking, been awful vs lefties in his career but surprisingly, he has 3 years of a sub 700 OPS vs righties.

The Bb rate was good his first 3 stints/years in the majors but awful since.

It’s hard to pinpoint exactly what has gone wrong vs righties. The batted ball stats are strong but his xBA is not.

Im good with him on the team to start. I don’t think you can really rely on him but I also think there is plenty there and plenty was shown last year to say, he should be here and he should play vs righties often until he shows last year was more of a fluke. I wouldn’t hesitate to give him a quick hook though. 

SG's got the most levelheaded take.

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

SG's got the most levelheaded take.

Per usual.

[sportsfan8703]

JD Davis being out there for free should pretty much let us know Ramon Urias’ value. 

[interloper]

Just now, sportsfan8703 said:

JD Davis being out there for free should pretty much let us know Ramon Urias’ value. 

JD Davis also costs $6+ million. 

[sportsfan8703]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

JD Davis also costs $6+ million. 

Nope. He’s been released. It’s confusing, but it’s what we did with Miguel Gonzalez years ago under Buck. 

He’s RH so he’s not a fit with us. 

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Nope. He’s been released. It’s confusing, but it’s what we did with Miguel Gonzalez years ago under Buck. 

He’s RH so he’s not a fit with us. 

You're right, my mistake. 

I still don't think you can really compare the two players. Davis has never had a WAR above 1.2 (bbref) while Urias has had 3 straight years beating that mark: 2.0, 3.6, 1.8. Urias is the much more useful player IMO. 

Edited March 12 by interloper

[Frobby]

11 hours ago, forphase1 said:

It's really not that complicated.  He has a career .714 OPS.  Yes, it was .801 last year, BUT that was largely due to a great .867 OPS in the first half, while falling much closer to his career norm in the 2nd half, it being .756 OPS.  Then in August he has a .710 OPS and a .724 in Sept/Oct.  For me at least, I largely question who O'Hearn is.  Is he the guy who had a May/June/July of .937, .867 and .893?  Or did he simply have a SUPER 3 month hot streak, and then revert back to what he'd been for most of his career?  

I'm glad he helped the team so much in 2023.  But I'm not counting on him repeating his scorching hot 3 month run again in 2024, in fact I think it MUCH more likely we get a .700-.725 out of him.  

2023 was a magical year, but we also had a TON of things go right, including some journeymen like O'Hearn/Mateo get REALLY hot and carry the team at times.  Expecting them to repeat that in 2024 is as unlikely as Mullins regaining his 2021 production level.  We don't 'hate' O'Hearn, per se, we just aren't sold that he's someone we should pencil in for 300-400 at bats.  Not when we have more talented players waiting in the wings that would likely outproduce his career type numbers.  I hope O'Hearn has a VERY short leash this year.  

I have complete faith in the Orioles’ ability to discern what of O’Hearn’s success is repeatable and what isn’t.  As to his September stats, note he actually was having a great month until he went 0 for 23 over the final 8 games.   

I think O’Hearn will have a long leash but may lose some playing time just due to the mix of players and their performance.   For example, Mountcastle historically hasn’t had bad platoon splits (.742/.849) but last year was much more extreme (.640/1.052), plus he missed 39 games with two IL stints in which O’Heatn played pretty much every day.  If Mountcastle stays healthy and has more typical splits, O’Hearn will play less.  If the O’s carry a lefty 4th outfielder instead of McKenna, O’Hearn will play less.  But I’m expecting him to be decent when he does play.  
 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

14 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

JD Davis being out there for free should pretty much let us know Ramon Urias’ value. 

As a 3B Ramon Urias is much better defensively compared to JD Davis. Urias can be the starting 3B for a team and provide value. JD Davis would have to hit really well to justify him being a starting 3B.

[btdart20]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I have complete faith in the Orioles’ ability to discern what of O’Hearn’s success is repeatable and what isn’t.  As to his September stats, note he actually was having a great month until he went 0 for 23 over the final 8 games.   

I think O’Hearn will have a long leash but may lose some playing time just due to the mix of players and their performance.   For example, Mountcastle historically hasn’t had bad platoon splits (.742/.849) but last year was much more extreme (.640/1.052), plus he missed 39 games with two IL stints in which O’Heatn played pretty much every day.  If Mountcastle stays healthy and has more typical splits, O’Hearn will play less.  If the O’s carry a lefty 4th outfielder instead of McKenna, O’Hearn will play less.  But I’m expecting him to be decent when he does play.  
 

Completely agreed.  He may very well have better stats and still have less PAs. 

As frustrating (for lack of a better word) as it is to use an extra roster spot on some type of 1B platoon,  both are solid options.  I'm more concerned with how other position battles and rookie integration plans play out.  

[Just Regular]

Hal Steinbrenner's price-sensitive New York Yankees, ladies and gentlemen.    One of the MLB talking heads this morning reviewing Snell/Montgomery mentioned new "investments" by Yankees would be taxed 110%.

96% jokingly, we should see what they'd give us for Dean Kremer.    I'm sure other Orgs with cost-controlled Arms are getting excited to arbitrage.

 

[Orioles0615]

18 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Hal Steinbrenner's price-sensitive New York Yankees, ladies and gentlemen.    One of the MLB talking heads this morning reviewing Snell/Montgomery mentioned new "investments" by Yankees would be taxed 110%.

96% jokingly, we should see what they'd give us for Dean Kremer.    I'm sure other Orgs with cost-controlled Arms are getting excited to arbitrage.

 

It would be nice if the O's added Montgomery or another good arm to really step on the Yankees throat 

[Just Regular]

I wonder if Taj Bradley was scratched because he has been arbitraged to the New York Yankees for The Extra 2% of surplus value.

[NCRaven]

51 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

I wonder if Taj Bradley was scratched because he has been arbitraged to the New York Yankees for The Extra 2% of surplus value.

I think they said a strained pectoral.  Getting an MRI.

[Billy F-Face3]

8 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

SG's got the most levelheaded take.

With as much as I've been finding myself agreeing with SG in recent days, I'm wondering if the apocalypse is going to happen soon.