Roch wants us to lower expectations

[interloper]

21 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Also, I see people tossing out Michael Wacha name as a possible consolation prize. He's coming off a second season in which his expected ERA (xERA) was more than a full run higher than his actual ERA. And he has a K/9 that's well below 9. I'm honestly not sure that he's even a better pitcher than Kyle Gibson, but he'll certainly cost more. Seems like a really strange player for an analytics driven front office to target.  

I mean Gibson and Lyles weren't exactly analytical darlings but we spent a combined $17 million on them. And I'm not saying they actually have interest. Nothing has been reported. But he was a guy that seemed in play last off-season. I agree it would be disappointing, but I could see how he fits. 

[Roll Tide]

5 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

What's the difference between Wacha and Gibson?  I'd say pretty minimal.  It looks like they will go as far as Bradish and Grod will take them as "aces".  I think that's fine for the regular season, but I think another top arm is needed for the playoffs.  Not sure that Wacha is that guy. 

You lose 30-50 innings but gain 1.25 to 1.75 ERA in better performance 

[HakunaSakata]

3 minutes ago, interloper said:

I mean Gibson and Lyles weren't exactly analytical darlings but we spent a combined $17 million on them. And I'm not saying they actually have interest. Nothing has been reported. But he was a guy that seemed in play last off-season. I agree it would be disappointing, but I could see how he fits. 

I'm not disagreeing with you. I wouldn't be surprised if they target Wacha as well. Elias has done a tremendous job in rebuilding the farm system, but the early returns on his free agent signings aren't nearly as good. And I know he has budget restraints, but so do other teams like the Rays and they seem to find a way to make it work. If he doesn't have the money to sign a #1 SP then I'd rather see him put those analytics to the work and find/sign an underrated SP as opposed to an overrated one like Wacha. 

[HakunaSakata]

3 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

You lose 30-50 innings but gain 1.25 to 1.75 ERA in better performance 

You're not gaining that much in ERA unless Wacha comes with the giant horse shoe he's had up his a$$ for the last two seasons. His expected stats haven't been that much better than Gibson's actual stats. 

[dystopia]

5 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

You're not gaining that much in ERA unless Wacha comes with the giant horse shoe he's had up his a$$ for the last two seasons. His expected stats haven't been that much better than Gibson's actual stats. 

Expected stats have no history of actually being predictive.

[HakunaSakata]

1 minute ago, dystopia said:

Expected stats have no history of actually being predictive.

Sure they do. Just because a flipped coin comes up heads the first ten times you flip it doesn't mean the law of averages won't eventually apply. And Wacha's sub par K/9 rate and inability to go deep into games (actual stats/facts) suggest that's going to happen sooner than later because he's doing very little to help his cause. 

[orioles119]

[TradeAngelos]

Johnny Angelos is the pimp and the fans (that are left) are the prostitutes that keep coming back for more. He beats you up, you still give him your money. He spits in your face, you still give him your money. He keeps promising you the world without delivering a darn thing,  you still give him your money. Then he throws a few dollars at you and tells you to clean yourself up and you say yes daddy. You have been so conditioned at this point there is nothing he can't do without you crawling back. He knows you don't have anywhere else to go. Just the way he wants it. 

[dystopia]

2 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Sure they do. Just because a flipped coin comes up heads the first ten times you flip it doesn't mean the law of averages won't eventually apply. And Wacha's sub par K/9 rate and inability to go deep into games (actual stats/facts) suggest that's going to happen sooner than later because he's doing very little to help his cause. 

No they don't. There is data on this.

https://pitcherlist.com/the-relative-value-of-fip-xfip-siera-and-xera-pt-ii/

[HakunaSakata]

1 minute ago, dystopia said:

No they don't. There is data on this.

https://pitcherlist.com/the-relative-value-of-fip-xfip-siera-and-xera-pt-ii/

I'm not reading that entire article, but to completely dismiss expected stats as at least being somewhat indicative of a player's skill level is ridiculous. It's not nearly as black and white as you're trying to make it be. 

[dystopia]

7 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I'm not reading that entire article, but to completely dismiss expected stats as at least being somewhat indicative of a player's skill level is ridiculous. It's not nearly as black and white as you're trying to make it be. 

I'm just looking for evidence that these stats actually have value and aren't a result of a nerd orgy.

[Roll Tide]

23 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

You're not gaining that much in ERA unless Wacha comes with the giant horse shoe he's had up his a$$ for the last two seasons. His expected stats haven't been that much better than Gibson's actual stats. 

In the last 3 years Gibsons high is 5.09 ….Wacha was 3.22. The difference is 1.87 ….so it doesn’t take a Horseshoe. Honestly, it’s very realistic….What if Gibson has a bad year 5.5 and Wacha gives you 3.5. That’s 2 ERA different.Wacha has 6 seasons around that ERA.

[24fps]

Roch's column looked to me like him squeezing the last few bits out of the Winter Meetings rather than any concerted effort to "lower expectations".  Nobody expected the O's to be in on guys like Snell in the first place.  Is he signalling what he's reading between the lines?  Maybe, but remember reporters/columnists sometimes have to file whether there's anything new to report or not. 

[deward]

8 minutes ago, Keygans said:

Translation:   “The costs in the trade market is higher than we thought prospect wise and I am not allowed to spend anymore after Kimbrell”

 

This… sucks .  NO reason whatsoever with our prospects we cannot pull multiple trades to improve this roster and get a TOR starter.  If money really is an issue with JA being cheap, then use Santander and/or Hays in the trades.   Like someone said last week… it looks like Hays has little value comparatively to a recent trade but it is THEIR job to get creative and improve the team .    Our AL East opponents are all improving and we cannot make our only “impact” move be signing a closer to replace Felix.   

I think Elias is too risk-averse to trade away reliable vets like Hays/Santander/Mounty. I think he brings back pretty much everyone but Frazier from last year, even ROH and Urias. However, he's also too risk-averse to trade away his prized prospects for a big swing at a pitcher. I don't think he has any problem with continuing to hoard guys at Norfolk and be protected in case of injuries to the vets. 

[dystopia]

Just now, deward said:

I think Elias is too risk-averse to trade away reliable vets like Hays/Santander/Mounty. I think he brings back pretty much everyone but Frazier from last year, even ROH and Urias. However, he's also too risk-averse to trade away his prized prospects for a big swing at a pitcher. I don't think he has any problem with continuing to hoard guys at Norfolk and be protected in case of injuries to the vets. 

The problem is there's just no room for all of these infielders on the big league ballclub. One of two of them simply have to be traded or they will just rot away in Norfolk all decade.