Player Perspective: Colton Cowser

[Greg Pappas]

It's a funny thing about Colton Cowser, as most of us (including me) seem okay dealing him, but I wonder if his debut had gone very well, whether we'd still be offering him up in these many different trade scenarios? 

What should we suspect from the 6'2-220 outfielder?  Cowser, who turns 24 in March, had a stellar amateur career at Sam Houston State and with Team USA, before the O's took him 5th overall in the 2021 draft.  He has a sweet lefty bat that produced a .982 OPS in 2021, an .874 OPS in 2022, and a .937 OPS last year in AAA Norfolk.  He has the power to produce 20+ HR's, hit for a good average.280-.300, and get on base at a high rate.   Yet, his strike out rate has been concerning, whiffing 304 times over in his 1174 PA's over his 2+ years in the minors.   He is the #14 prospect overall in MLB.com's most recent Top Prospects list, but I suspect he may drop a bit when updated closer to the 2024 season.

I think his numbers in 114 games over two seasons at AAA are a good barometer to look at:  523 PA, 428 AB, 25 2B, 1 3B, 22 HR, 73 RBI, 9 SB, 3 CS, 77 BB, 145 K's, .280 BA, .399 OBP, .498 SLG, .896 OPS

Defensively he has a good reputation, but my eyes showed an adequate fielder with an okay arm and one that did not get the best jumps off the bat.  So, I'm not sure if the SSS was truly telling in that regard and, besides, others would have a far better view on his defensive skillset than I do.

Still, overall, I have three questions for you: 

1. Could his poor showing in the SSS (77 PA and a .433 OPS) in Baltimore have lowered his trade value at all, and if so, should we wait to allow him to allay any concerns to that end?
2. What sort of numbers would you suspect we'd see if Cowser were given the chance to get 500+ AB's here in Baltimore? 
3. What is his floor/ceiling moving forward? 

Edited December 24, 2023 by Greg Pappas

[Moose Milligan]

1. I hope it didn’t lower his trade value. If it did, ML GMs probably aren’t that much smarter than some posters here.  @Greg Pappasyou’re right to wonder if his debut had gone better if people here would be singing a different tune. To me, it’s obvious they would be. Kjerstad comes up and hits two homers while looking completely pedestrian otherwise and people here were going nuts.  It doesn’t take much to get fans here excited, but unfortunately Cowser didn’t show enough to make people not want to part with him for Dylan Cease. 

The other thing that’s so weird about Cowser and fans here is that it’s been pointed out ad nauseam that he’s needed some time to adjust to every level he’s been on, but once he figures it out he catches fire. So patience has been preached but hasn’t been practiced…at least not practiced enough to make people think that trading a guy after 61 at bats isn’t a great idea because they fail to understand 61 at bats at the very beginning of a players career. 
 

2. I think if he got 500 at bats he’d be around .275/.350/.425. Like, Markakis-ish numbers.  That won’t be enough power for some. 
 

3. His ceiling could be around .850 OPS. Hard to say. 
 

In regard to his strikeouts, Gunnar struck out at a pretty comparable clip throughout the minors. Different levels, I’m aware, but I don’t remember people bringing up Gunnar’s strikeouts the way people seem to for Cowser.  Gunnar has, at first glance, maintained that same strikeout rate across his ML plate appearances. 
 

That is to say I don’t care about him striking out if he can still walk at a good clip. 
 

I hate guessing about what players will do because it’ll be gone and forgotten in a week or two unless @Frobbybumps it in three years from now. 

[Satyr3206]

38 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

1. I hope it didn’t lower his trade value. If it did, ML GMs probably aren’t that much smarter than some posters here.  @Greg Pappasyou’re right to wonder if his debut had gone better if people here would be singing a different tune. To me, it’s obvious they would be. Kjerstad comes up and hits two homers while looking completely pedestrian otherwise and people here were going nuts.  It doesn’t take much to get fans here excited, but unfortunately Cowser didn’t show enough to make people not want to part with him for Dylan Cease. 

The other thing that’s so weird about Cowser and fans here is that it’s been pointed out ad nauseam that he’s needed some time to adjust to every level he’s been on, but once he figures it out he catches fire. So patience has been preached but hasn’t been practiced…at least not practiced enough to make people think that trading a guy after 61 at bats isn’t a great idea because they fail to understand 61 at bats at the very beginning of a players career. 
 

2. I think if he got 500 at bats he’d be around .275/.350/.425. Like, Markakis-ish numbers.  That won’t be enough power for some. 
 

3. His ceiling could be around .850 OPS. Hard to say. 
 

In regard to his strikeouts, Gunnar struck out at a pretty comparable clip throughout the minors. Different levels, I’m aware, but I don’t remember people bringing up Gunnar’s strikeouts the way people seem to for Cowser.  Gunnar has, at first glance, maintained that same strikeout rate across his ML plate appearances. 
 

That is to say I don’t care about him striking out if he can still walk at a good clip. 
 

I hate guessing about what players will do because it’ll be gone and forgotten in a week or two unless @Frobbybumps it in three years from now. 

lol

[Greg Pappas]

47 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

1. I hope it didn’t lower his trade value. If it did, ML GMs probably aren’t that much smarter than some posters here.  @Greg Pappasyou’re right to wonder if his debut had gone better if people here would be singing a different tune. To me, it’s obvious they would be. Kjerstad comes up and hits two homers while looking completely pedestrian otherwise and people here were going nuts.  It doesn’t take much to get fans here excited, but unfortunately Cowser didn’t show enough to make people not want to part with him for Dylan Cease. 

The other thing that’s so weird about Cowser and fans here is that it’s been pointed out ad nauseam that he’s needed some time to adjust to every level he’s been on, but once he figures it out he catches fire. So patience has been preached but hasn’t been practiced…at least not practiced enough to make people think that trading a guy after 61 at bats isn’t a great idea because they fail to understand 61 at bats at the very beginning of a players career. 
 

2. I think if he got 500 at bats he’d be around .275/.350/.425. Like, Markakis-ish numbers.  That won’t be enough power for some. 
 

3. His ceiling could be around .850 OPS. Hard to say. 
 

In regard to his strikeouts, Gunnar struck out at a pretty comparable clip throughout the minors. Different levels, I’m aware, but I don’t remember people bringing up Gunnar’s strikeouts the way people seem to for Cowser.  Gunnar has, at first glance, maintained that same strikeout rate across his ML plate appearances. 
 

That is to say I don’t care about him striking out if he can still walk at a good clip. 
 

I hate guessing about what players will do because it’ll be gone and forgotten in a week or two unless @Frobbybumps it in three years from now. 

I concur... good post.  I think he'll be somewhere around the .775-825 OPS mark, but hard to guess at with any confidence. 

[Roll Tide]

3 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

It's a funny thing about Colton Cowser, as most of us (including me) seem okay dealing him, but I wonder if his debut had gone very well, whether we'd still be offering him up in these many different trade scenarios? 

What should we suspect from the 6'2-220 outfielder?  Cowser, who turns 24 in March, had a stellar amateur career at Sam Houston State and with Team USA, before the O's took him 5th overall in the 2021 draft.  He has a sweet lefty bat that produced a .982 OPS in 2021, an .874 OPS in 2022, and a .937 OPS last year in AAA Norfolk.  He has the power to produce 20+ HR's, hit for a good average.280-.300, and get on base at a high rate.   Yet, his strike out rate has been concerning, whiffing 304 times over in his 1174 PA's over his 2+ years in the minors.   He is the #14 prospect overall in MLB.com's most recent Top Prospects list, but I suspect he may drop a bit when updated closer to the 2024 season.

I think his numbers in 114 games over two seasons at AAA are a good barometer to look at:  523 PA, 428 AB, 25 2B, 1 3B, 22 HR, 73 RBI, 9 SB, 3 CS, 77 BB, 145 K's, .280 BA, .399 OBP, .498 SLG, .896 OPS

Defensively he has a good reputation, but my eyes showed an adequate fielder with an okay arm and one that did not get the best jumps off the bat.  So, I'm not sure if the SSS was truly telling in that regard and, besides, others would have a far better view on his defensive skillset than I do.

Still, overall, I have three questions for you: 

1. Could his poor showing in the SSS (77 PA and a .433 OPS) in Baltimore have lowered his trade value at all, and if so, should we wait to allow him to allay any concerns to that end?
2. What sort of numbers would you suspect we'd see if Cowser were given the chance to get 500+ AB's here in Baltimore? 
3. What is his floor/ceiling moving forward? 

For me it wasn’t just that he didn’t hit. I thought he looked poor in the OF as well.

[sangar]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

For me it wasn’t just that he didn’t hit. I thought he looked poor in the OF as well.

I agree with this, he looked lost all around. That said, I'm with the patient approach given his track record.
This team is still a couple years away from being fully cooked and Cowser could be a significant part of the final product.

Edited December 24, 2023 by sangar

[Greg Pappas]

I suspect he'll be better this spring, and look like the guy scouts like so much.  So, better at the plate and in the field.    

Edited December 24, 2023 by Greg Pappas

[Billy F-Face3]

On the bright side, when he was sent back down he got back on track again after he got over the whip lash of being sent up and down. His last month in Norfolk was pretty good.

I'm certainly not undervaluing him. I still think he's worthy of being high on the MLB prospect rankings and I feel that once he's given a chance to play and adjust in less pressurized situations than he was in during his call up, then he will start to really develop in the Big Leagues and take an upward career trajectory.

As for trades, I might be willing to trade him, but I'm not giving him away. He's going to be a good player. He was just lost in his first cup of coffee and needs to be brought along more carefully and consistently when he earns his 2nd opportunity. 

It might also be more challenging to get that 2nd opportunity because we still have Kjerstad and Stowers battling for it too.  A rising tide lifts all ships.

[wildcard]

I see Cowser as the O's starting left fielder in 2025 replacing Hays.   Hays has had bad 2nd halves the last two years and that may provide playing time for Cowser.    Cowser probably comes in to ST as the O's 4th outfielder.

I am not for trading players that are not really blocked.  And that is Cowser.

The O's payroll is at 73m.  I think they will go to 83m rather than trade away 6 years of several prospects that have a future with the O's.   They have Bradish, GRod, Means, Kremer and Wells.   They still need a  pitcher with major league experience that can start and relieve.   I think Lorenzen is a more likely fit than Burns or Cease because of the prospect cost when outbidding the rest of baseball for them in trade.

Lorenzen over the last two year has about a 4.20 ERA.  The O's may be able to decrease that with their analytics and defense.    That is much better than the starter innings that were pitched  by Gibson and Flaherty, and Irvin.  And Lorenzen also has experience relieving.

I do see the O's trading Norby, Urias and Stowers but for pitching prospects that booster the farm system.

[btdart20]

11 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

1. Could his poor showing in the SSS (77 PA and a .433 OPS) in Baltimore have lowered his trade value at all, and if so, should we wait to allow him to allay any concerns to that end?
2. What sort of numbers would you suspect we'd see if Cowser were given the chance to get 500+ AB's here in Baltimore? 
3. What is his floor/ceiling moving forward? 

1.  Yes, it lowered his value.  Even if just a little.  The questions we have are there.  The hope is that more stable people look past the SSS.  But the reality is that even the most stable/rational people are influenced by irrational things.  

2.  I think he can be an .775ish OPS guy.  A full season of PAs might look like James Outman’s 2023 where he K at a 32% rate and BB at a 12+% rate while posting a .790 OPS.  Maybe a bit more upside in BB% too.

3.  Floor is about the contact quality.  Was he just that much better trained that the MiLB pitcher that his MiLB stats could be posted?  Meaning, could his brain overcompensate in pitch selection allowing him to sellout on a hard swing in AAA where he doesn’t have that skill differential at the MLB level?  Does he have to sellout to make quality contact?  If so, that’ll be exploited and his K% and BB% will go the wrong way.  Or he just adjusts to the speed/quality of pitching and takes steps toward his ceiling.

The ceiling is Markakis-ish with a bit more power and lower BA/OBP.

[interloper]

20 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I see Cowser as the O's starting left fielder in 2025 replacing Hays.   Hays has had bad 2nd halves the last two years and that may provide playing time for Cowser.    Cowser probably comes in to ST as the O's 4th outfielder.

I am not for trading players that are not really blocked.  And that is Cowser.

The O's payroll is at 73m.  I think they will go to 83m rather than trade away 6 years of several prospects that have a future with the O's.   They have Bradish, GRod, Means, Kremer and Wells.   They still need a  pitcher with major league experience that can start and relieve.   I think Lorenzen is a more likely fit than Burns or Cease because of the prospect cost when outbidding the rest of baseball for them in trade.

Lorenzen over the last two year has about a 4.20 ERA.  The O's may be able to decrease that with their analytics and defense.    That is much better than the starter innings that were pitched  by Gibson and Flaherty, and Irvin.  And Lorenzen also has experience relieving.

I do see the O's trading Norby, Urias and Stowers but for pitching prospects that booster the farm system.

Well reasoned post. I could see something like this happening, though I hope they aim higher. 

I wish I believed more in Cowser but his minor league strikeouts really concern me. Doesn't mean he can't overcome it enough to have success up here though.

Happy holidays wildcard!

[Frobby]

8 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

I concur... good post.  I think he'll be somewhere around the .775-825 OPS mark, but hard to guess at with any confidence. 

The various projection systems aren’t expecting a whole lot in 2024.   ZiPS .707, Steamer .719, Marcel .694.   ZiPS has his 80th percentile projection at .787.   But of course, most players don’t hit their career averages in their rookie year.  I think .775-.825 is a good enough guess.  
 

[Greg Pappas]

I've now seen Markakis remarked upon as a decent offensive comp, and I can see that. Here are Nick's average stats per 162 games during his nine-year career in Baltimore: .290 BA / .358 OBP / .435 SLG / .793 OPS, with 16 HR, 35 2B, 73 RBI, and 7/10 SB.

Edited February 6 by Greg Pappas
Added that it was the 162 games average over those 9 seasons

[Aristotelian]

Ordinarily I do not believe in eye tests and small samples, but his was so bad that yes, he did hurt his value and I would accept less than I would have before. I would do Cowser for Cease now with zero hesitation. He looked completely overmatched at the plate and below average defensively. If you are the rangers would you trade Carter for Cowser? How much more would the Rangers need to get now to entertain that thought?

[Jim'sKid26]

2 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

I've now seen Markakis remarked upon as a decent offensive comp, and I can see that. Here are Nick's stats during his nine-year career in Baltimore: .290 BA / .358 OBP / .435 SLG / .793 OPS, with 16 HR, 35 2B, 73 RBI, and 7/10 SB.

I disagree. Nick had a bit better hit tool with a bit less power. Nick's BBRef profile says he was 6'1" and 210 lbs but I suspect he was a bit lighter than that as an Oriole. He was a much better outfielder than Cowser has shown and had a better arm. I get Larry Bigbie vibes from Cowser.