Player Perspective: Colton Cowser

[Greg Pappas]

5 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

I disagree. Nick had a bit better hit tool with a bit less power. Nick's BBRef profile says he was 6'1" and 210 lbs but I suspect he was a bit lighter than that as an Oriole. He was a much better outfielder than Cowser has shown and had a better arm. I get Larry Bigbie vibes from Cowser.

The comparison was for, "a decent offensive comp," so physical stature or defense was not mentioned.  You may be right that Cowser has a bit less BA and more power, but maybe not on either account.  It's hard to say, but the comp doesn't feel far off to me.

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

I disagree. Nick had a bit better hit tool with a bit less power. Nick's BBRef profile says he was 6'1" and 210 lbs but I suspect he was a bit lighter than that as an Oriole. He was a much better outfielder than Cowser has shown and had a better arm. I get Larry Bigbie vibes from Cowser.

It’s too soon to know.  I doubt Cowser will be as good as Nick - most players aren’t.   But he could still be a very good player, Hays-level or better.   I wasn’t impressed at all with his defense but I’m going to give him a mulligan based on the good reports about his defense in the minors.   You know who else didn’t have a very good defensive showing his first go-round in the majors?  Mullins (-5 Rtot, -6 Rdrs, -6.5 UZR in 2018).  So maybe I’m giving Cowser a Mullins-again (see what I did there?).   

[drjohnnyfever1]

16 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

It's a funny thing about Colton Cowser, as most of us (including me) seem okay dealing him, but I wonder if his debut had gone very well, whether we'd still be offering him up in these many different trade scenarios? 

What should we suspect from the 6'2-220 outfielder?  Cowser, who turns 24 in March, had a stellar amateur career at Sam Houston State and with Team USA, before the O's took him 5th overall in the 2021 draft.  He has a sweet lefty bat that produced a .982 OPS in 2021, an .874 OPS in 2022, and a .937 OPS last year in AAA Norfolk.  He has the power to produce 20+ HR's, hit for a good average.280-.300, and get on base at a high rate.   Yet, his strike out rate has been concerning, whiffing 304 times over in his 1174 PA's over his 2+ years in the minors.   He is the #14 prospect overall in MLB.com's most recent Top Prospects list, but I suspect he may drop a bit when updated closer to the 2024 season.

I think his numbers in 114 games over two seasons at AAA are a good barometer to look at:  523 PA, 428 AB, 25 2B, 1 3B, 22 HR, 73 RBI, 9 SB, 3 CS, 77 BB, 145 K's, .280 BA, .399 OBP, .498 SLG, .896 OPS

Defensively he has a good reputation, but my eyes showed an adequate fielder with an okay arm and one that did not get the best jumps off the bat.  So, I'm not sure if the SSS was truly telling in that regard and, besides, others would have a far better view on his defensive skillset than I do.

Still, overall, I have three questions for you: 

1. Could his poor showing in the SSS (77 PA and a .433 OPS) in Baltimore have lowered his trade value at all, and if so, should we wait to allow him to allay any concerns to that end?
2. What sort of numbers would you suspect we'd see if Cowser were given the chance to get 500+ AB's here in Baltimore? 
3. What is his floor/ceiling moving forward? 

I think given how he performed we aren't done evaluating him.  His trade value has to be seen as too low at the moment, I would hope, anyway.  The opposing side is if he had come out of the chute like a HOFer would we be willing to trade him?  There would have been those saying he can't sustain it so deal him high and others saying we'd be crazy until we know if he can.   So given the lackluster initial performances, I think we're stuck in the negative side of that scenario in a wait and see mode with him. 

If Kakes is the barometer, I think we wait until he gets to that level, see if he might be more, but be available for trade discussions, especially if there is a pitcher with some control being offered or pursued and we have additional tools still in the shed to replace him.  He's had 61 MLB at bats with a .115 ave.  Personally, I willing to be patient with a 5th overall pick who's been consistently at or near the top of the farm's prospect list.

[wildcard]

10 hours ago, interloper said:

Well reasoned post. I could see something like this happening, though I hope they aim higher. 

I wish I believed more in Cowser but his minor league strikeouts really concern me. Doesn't mean he can't overcome it enough to have success up here though.

Happy holidays wildcard!

IMO keeping the O's best talent for 5 or 6 years instead of trading it is aiming as high as possible.

Edited December 24, 2023 by wildcard

[ShoelesJoe]

On 12/23/2023 at 10:16 PM, Moose Milligan said:

 I think if he got 500 at bats he’d be around .275/.350/.425. 

So he'd basically be a LH version of Austin Hays. I know that Hays' career L/R splits aren't extreme, but we could do worse than having him and Cowser platoon ala Roenicke and Lowenstein. Also, I think Cowser's got a little more pop in him than a .425 SLG %. He more than matched Gunnar's SLG at Norfolk, and should be dropping his share of HRs on to the flag court should he get the chance. 

[Moose Milligan]

2 hours ago, ShoelesJoe said:

So he'd basically be a LH version of Austin Hays. I know that Hays' career L/R splits aren't extreme, but we could do worse than having him and Cowser platoon ala Roenicke and Lowenstein. Also, I think Cowser's got a little more pop in him than a .425 SLG %. He more than matched Gunnar's SLG at Norfolk, and should be dropping his share of HRs on to the flag court should he get the chance. 

Let me know when Austin Hays posts an OBP in the .350 area. 

[Can_of_corn]

15 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Let me know when Austin Hays posts an OBP in the .350 area. 

2019

 

[emmett16]

24 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

2019

 

I doubt you have to go all the way back to 2019 to see Hays post a .350 OBP over a 21 game stretch.

Edited December 25, 2023 by emmett16

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, emmett16 said:

I doubt you have to go all the way back to 2019 to see Hays post a .350 OBP over a 21 game stretch. 

You saw the right? 

[emmett16]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

You saw the right? 

Fixed.  

[Moose Milligan]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

2019

 

Last decade!

[waroriole]

On 12/24/2023 at 11:43 AM, Frobby said:

It’s too soon to know.  I doubt Cowser will be as good as Nick - most players aren’t.   But he could still be a very good player, Hays-level or better.   I wasn’t impressed at all with his defense but I’m going to give him a mulligan based on the good reports about his defense in the minors.   You know who else didn’t have a very good defensive showing his first go-round in the majors?  Mullins (-5 Rtot, -6 Rdrs, -6.5 UZR in 2018).  So maybe I’m giving Cowser a Mullins-again (see what I did there?).   

There needs to be a begrudging laughter emoji. 

[emmett16]

Cowser is a beast.  
 

https://youtu.be/iVfDp1ecSuo

I think folks havnt  had a chance to see him play.  He’s darn impressive.  And for a 6’2” 220+ he moves well and packs a punch.  Tony has pointed out that his only real question mark is hitting velocity.  Giving time and experience I expect him to be a force for a long time.  If he’s the main piece that goes, people are gonna be salty in a few years. 

Edited December 26, 2023 by emmett16

[Tony-OH]

I still have him as the #5 prospect in a pretty deep system so I still think he's going to hit. I do still have some concerns over him hitting velocity though and that will ultimately decide his ceiling. Cowser certainly has more power than he showed in the big leagues and he's certainly a better hitter than he was during his awful trial last year. 

Saying all that, I think his floor is a 4th outfielder. Here are some AAA hitting highlights incase most of what you've seen of him was during his MLB time.

https://www.mlb.com/video/00u7jzgkdtP9kH55c356/reels/colton-cowser?partnerId=web_multimedia-search_video-share

Defensively he's better than he showed as well. He's got a 91.9 percentile arm and while he did come up with -1 OAA during his brief time, that was mostly from this one bad play (which had an 85 percentile chance of being caught) in left field. It's worth noting that Cowser had only played four games in left field this year with Norfolk which seems like a developmental error if you ask me because Cowser is a great fit defensively in Camden Yards big left field.

Here's some highlights of Cowser's defense. 

Back to the question. No, I don't think the Orioles or other GMs have devalued Cowser off his major league time last year. I do think they probably share concerns over him hitting upper velocity, but I don't have his numbers from the minors. 

Either way, he's a guy the Orioles could reluctantly give up in a trade for a top starter, but they're not giving him away for sure.

[sportsfan8703]

100% recency bias with Cowser. He went from Markakis that can play CF, with a 50 page thread that keeping him down was a travesty, to the headline of every proposed trade. 

I see Cowser as our LF for 6 years. He’ll be just fine.