Player Perspective: Colton Cowser

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

It's worth noting that Cowser had only played four games in left field this year with Norfolk which seems like a developmental error if you ask me because Cowser is a great fit defensively in Camden Yards big left field.

This could be a whole different thread but if there’s one angle of second guessing prospect development, it’s defensive reps.  For a team that has been pretty flexible with its IF development, we haven’t really done that with Baltimore in mind in the OF.  Or even 1B.  I can think of any number of scenarios why, but in the end staying in Baltimore is the most likely outcome for anyone drafted by us.  Why not manage reps accordingly, especially in AAA.  If it’s market value concerns, then be very public about it broadly speaking and weight reps to their A position.

[Jammer7]

His value did go down some, sure it did. That does not mean he cannot be a solid MLB starting OF. It wasn’t just that he struggled, he wilted badly in his struggles. His body language was awful. He looked beat down by his struggles. Adley and Gunnar struggled badly, at times, before finding their footing. However, they never looked defeated. Frustrated, of course, but never defeated. He was afraid of making mistakes on defense, but I think that is fixable given time.

He was late on velo, a lot, but that is fixable for a guy with his ability. He looked like he was letting everything travel deep. Maybe that was his process, to just see as many pitches as he could, and to see them deep. To try to speed up his adjustments and judging spin and stuff. That is the only way I can make sense of how bad he looked.

He may be a guy who puts a lot of pressure on himself. Being in a playoff hunt might be an issue for him. He might be a guy who produces bigger numbers for a second divisional club, though. Those questions are fair to me, considering his terrible look in his debut. The timing of his debut cannot be ignored.

I’m not eager to trade him at this point, unless it is for a top end starter. You have to give to get. Longer-term, where does he play if he stays? LF? I don’t see CF skills. For him to be a fit, they’ll have to move some vets on the roster currently. Are they going to do that right now and commit to a guy that has not shown he cannot handle it, not yet anyway? I have no idea what the plan is, but I do not think Cowser has anything to prove in AAA. He is a talented guy, but what he ends up being at the MLB level may depend on how quickly he finds success and what his everyday opportunities are. You do not sit a guy like this, and make him a 4th OF type.

[btdart20]

4 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

His value did go down some, sure it did. That does not mean he cannot be a solid MLB starting OF. It wasn’t just that he struggled, he wilted badly in his struggles. His body language was awful. He looked beat down by his struggles. Adley and Gunnar struggled badly, at times, before finding their footing. However, they never looked defeated. Frustrated, of course, but never defeated. He was afraid of making mistakes on defense, but I think that is fixable given time.

He was late on velo, a lot, but that is fixable for a guy with his ability. He looked like he was letting everything travel deep. Maybe that was his process, to just see as many pitches as he could, and to see them deep. To try to speed up his adjustments and judging spin and stuff. That is the only way I can make sense of how bad he looked.

He may be a guy who puts a lot of pressure on himself. Being in a playoff hunt might be an issue for him. He might be a guy who produces bigger numbers for a second divisional club, though. Those questions are fair to me, considering his terrible look in his debut. The timing of his debut cannot be ignored.

I’m not eager to trade him at this point, unless it is for a top end starter. You have to give to get. Longer-term, where does he play if he stays? LF? I don’t see CF skills. For him to be a fit, they’ll have to move some vets on the roster currently. Are they going to do that right now and commit to a guy that has not shown he cannot handle it, not yet anyway? I have no idea what the plan is, but I do not think Cowser has anything to prove in AAA. He is a talented guy, but what he ends up being at the MLB level may depend on how quickly he finds success and what his everyday opportunities are. You do not sit a guy like this, and make him a 4th OF type.

Good post.  The debut/postseason comparison is interesting.  I agree that he’s not a guy I’d use as a bench bat/4th OF.  He’s still stashable in AAA but like you said, he has nothing to prove there.  If he’s in AAA in 2024 is that a waste or storing resources for 2025 use?  In 2025, would we rather the Beavers vintage?  

[Jammer7]

5 hours ago, btdart20 said:

Good post.  The debut/postseason comparison is interesting.  I agree that he’s not a guy I’d use as a bench bat/4th OF.  He’s still stashable in AAA but like you said, he has nothing to prove there.  If he’s in AAA in 2024 is that a waste or storing resources for 2025 use?  In 2025, would we rather the Beavers vintage?  

Those are good questions. 
1. Will they stash, and seemingly stifle, MLB ready talent in AAA?

2. Who does Elias prefer long term among OF candidates? Beavers would seem more dynamic, but maybe a lower floor. Tough call. 

[Billy F-Face3]

14 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

He was late on velo, a lot, but that is fixable for a guy with his ability. He looked like he was letting everything travel deep. Maybe that was his process, to just see as many pitches as he could, and to see them deep. To try to speed up his adjustments and judging spin and stuff.

I just seen a video clip on social media of Alex Rodriguez revealing one of his secrets that had helped Alex over his career identify pitches. He said sometimes pitchers will tip whether they're throwing a fastball or a change up before they even wind up. He said if it's a fast ball, as a hitter, you might be able to see the pitchers wrist dip a little lower underneath his glove hand but if it's a change up the pitcher's throwing wrist will be a little farther up in his glove because he's palming the ball with a change up grip.

If Colton Cowser can pick up on little things like this, it might help him with his timing so that he's not letting the ball travel so deep and his swing isn't late.

Alot of the greatest athletes are also very cerebral. They study things and know what's coming before the play even starts.  Kind of like how the greatest NFL Quarterbacks have done over the years. Different game, same intelligent observations.

[Satyr3206]

All players have tells. I used to go out and watch them warm up. Tells you a lot.

[Tony-OH]

22 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

100% recency bias with Cowser. He went from Markakis that can play CF, with a 50 page thread that keeping him down was a travesty, to the headline of every proposed trade. 

I see Cowser as our LF for 6 years. He’ll be just fine. 

I'm in no hurry to trade Cowser, but if he can headline a trade for a TOR starter then I'm ok with moving him. You have to give up something to get something and I really don't want to move the big three. 

[Jammer7]

9 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

I just seen a video clip on social media of Alex Rodriguez revealing one of his secrets that had helped Alex over his career identify pitches. He said sometimes pitchers will tip whether they're throwing a fastball or a change up before they even wind up. He said if it's a fast ball, as a hitter, you might be able to see the pitchers wrist dip a little lower underneath his glove hand but if it's a change up the pitcher's throwing wrist will be a little farther up in his glove because he's palming the ball with a change up grip.

If Colton Cowser can pick up on little things like this, it might help him with his timing so that he's not letting the ball travel so deep and his swing isn't late.

Alot of the greatest athletes are also very cerebral. They study things and know what's coming before the play even starts.  Kind of like how the greatest NFL Quarterbacks have done over the years. Different game, same intelligent observations.

I saw the same video, and others like it over the years. Solid stuff from Rodriguez there. Cowser may be very cerebral, and his intake of data and pitch shapes from the elite in the sport should help him. That kind of tipping info is passed within the dugout from vets to young players commonly. Or from coaches. A game within the game, like sign-stealing. Pitchers will sometimes set the hitter up as well if they think they are keying on something.

I hope he is very intelligent, and able to get going early in the Spring. He can rid himself of the doubt that consumed him, and get on with hitting like he is capable of. 

[Orange]

When you talk about the headliner in a trade, if you wouldn’t make a proposed deal I think you should pull back and ask if you’d do the deal 1-for-1… In other words, Cowser has a lot of value considering he was the pre-season #14 year prospect according to BA (iirc) so some might say “I’m not trading Cowser, Norby, Baumler, Pinto, and Horvath for Cease”… but I think if you would trade Cowser for Cease straight up than you should also be willing to do the 5-for-1. The other guys have value but it’s all upside hope and they are really actually replaceable pieces that you shouldn’t get hung up on. 

Anyway, that’s the type of deal I’d be looking for. (I’d still rather have Luzardo, but I get it either way. Cease is a stud.)

[Orange]

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/
MLB.com - Cowser was 14th.  

[RZNJ]

Per Baseball America article that looked at contact rate, chase pct., in zone whiff rate, 90% EV, and average EV, looked at the 2022 and 2023 classes trying to guess which 2024 rookies will do well. 
 

A few names stand out immediately when looking at 2024 rookie candidates: Junior Caminero, Wyatt Langford, Noelvi Marte, Colt Keith and Michael Busch. Busch has the advantage of age, while Langford likely benefits to an extent from a smaller sample size against more advanced competition. Regardless, this group clearly shows a balance of contact (all above 72%), approach (chase rate below 30%) and power (90th percentile above 104.5 mph). This is in-line with the standouts of the previous two classes and the players who are/were most likely to repeat their production in their sophomore campaigns. 

Colton Cowser just misses the above group based on contact rate, but is not far off from the appropriate benchmark. Cowser underwhelmed in his big league debut, but enters 2024 with an opportunity to erase those memories by letting his underlying skills do the talking over a larger sample size. Let this be a warning to not write Cowser off. 

Holliday scores very well but falls below the 90% EV rate with a 102.3.

Edited January 22 by RZNJ

[RZNJ]

Player                    Contact%  Chase%. Z-miss%.   90th%.      AVg Ev

Junior Caminero.   72.80%.   29.00%.  19.00%.        110.4.       91.5

Jackson Holliday.       76%.      19.40%.   17.50%.     102.3.      91.1

Jackson Chourio.      76.70%.   32.30%.   16.40%.    105.8.     91.3

Evan Carter.                73.90%.    18.70%.   17.30%.    102.5.    85.5

Wyatt Langford.         81.30%.     16.80%.   12.80%.   106.8.    90.2

Jordan Lawlar.             73.60%.    21.30%1.   8.60%.    102.4.   88.7

Pete Crow-Armstrong. 68.40%.   33.80%.   26.00%.  104.3.  88.3

Noelvi Marte.                 73.60%.   29.80%.    16.50%.   106.8.  88.8

Colt Keith.                      75.20%.     24.20%.   16.60%.   104.7.   90.3

Colton Cowser.             70.40%.      20.80%.   19.70%.   105.1.   91.4

Masyn Winn.                 81.50%.      28.20%.    12.10%.   101.9.   87.9

Michael Busch.              79.50%.     21.10%.     12.50%.   104.7   91.4

Everson Pereira.            63.60%.     25.40%.     26.20%.  109.    93.8

Tyler Black.                    77.40%.       18.60%.    16.50%.   102.8   87.6

Thomas Saggese.         74.90%.       31.70%.    16.60%.   102.7.   87.2

Nolan Schanuel.            87.40%.      16.50%.       7.10%.      96.7.  83.8

Orelvis Martinez.           66.40%.      28.80%.    19.30%.    105.4. 89.7

Ceddanne Rafaela.         68.70%.      40.20%.   19.40%.    104.2.  89.1

Brayan Rocchio.              78.80%.      27.60%.    12.90%.    101.9.   87

[Moose Milligan]

Cool story.