Counting Chickens

[now]

Obviously the Orioles have turned the corner on drafting and developing prospects... or so it appears, after big award seasons from 2019 wunderkinds Rutschman and Henderson (rounds 1 and 2, 2019 draft), and national rankings for a half dozen more hopefuls. Still, not much has happened yet at the major league level, despite many of us penciling new kids into the lineup for the rest of the decade. 

Not saying it won't happen, but first let's look at the track record for drafting established major leaguers. (I'm not charting WAR for this exercise, just going off name recognition; your mileage may differ.) 

Draft year and (order), looking mostly at top ten, plus outliers:

2003: Markakis (1)
2005: Reimold (3), D. Hernandez (16)
2006: Britton (4)
2007: Wieters (1), Arrieta (3)
2008: Matusz (1), Joseph (7)
2009: Givens (2)
2010: Machado (1)
2011: Bundy (1), Davies (26)
2012: Gausman (1), Walker (4), Hader (19)
2013: Heim (5), Mancini (9), Yastrzemski (14)
2014: T. Scott (4), Means (9)
2015: Mountcastle (2), McKenna (5), Mullins (13)
2016: Akin (2), Hays (4)
2017: DL Hall (1), Baumann (4)
2018: G. Rodriguez (1)
2019: Rutschman (1), Henderson (2)

Much as it pains us to wait for results, new entries to this list of achievement will have to wait awhile longer. Considering we've averaged under two graduates per draft year for the last two decades, we could expect only 6 candidates from the last three drafts. Here's my best guess of the horses to bet on (with results still coming in from as far back as 2019, and from the latest, largely untested crop of baby O's from the 2023 draft.)

2019: Ortiz (5)
2020: Kjerstad (1), Westburg (2), Mayo (5)
2021: Cowser (1), Norby (2)
2022: Holliday (1)
2023: Bradfield (1)

The rest, unfortunately, will mostly be forgotten. 

On the bright side, none of this counts the new influx of top international talent, never a factor in this org. before now.

 

[btdart20]

6 hours ago, now said:

Still, not much has happened yet at the major league level

You and I have different definitions of things happening at the ML level.  

Adley finished #2 in ROY voting and followed it up with a solid second year.  

Gunnar won the ROY.  

Grayson was a force in the second half.  And Hall proved he belongs in some role.  Same with Westburg.  HK showed promise of not results.  Bradish (while not drafted by us was definitely influenced by our development) has had a very strong start to his career.  Same for Bautista and quite a few other pitchers (and O’Hearn/Hicks).  All contributed to a 101 win season.

And yes, we’ve had a few misses or poor SSS showings.

It’s one thing to say not all prospects make it at the ML level.  It’s wise not to count chickens before they hatch.  That’s Risk-Aversion 101 and the need for insurance policies.  Which we/fans seem to abhor.

As we know, “past performance does not guarantee future results”.  Portfolio managers take that to heart and search for the why/how.  Fans/retail investors?  Some might want to but we just don’t have the same high frequency trading tools the pros have.

[Frobby]

According to a past review I did of a now-defunct site called The Baseball Gauge, on any given March 1 a median farm system has in it 36 players who will reach the majors and they will accumulate about 105 rWAR collectively.  But results vary widely.  A great farm system can produce 300 rWAR and a terrible one can produce 25 (like the 3/1/07 Orioles system did).   

Another study I did from the 1998-2005 period concluded that a median draft produces about 14.5 rWAR, whereas the mean was about 23.2.  Some drafts are way better than others.  

So by that measure, the 2019 draft at 16.2 rWAR has already passed the median and should be an absolute crusher.  Based on what I looked at, only 14% of all team drafts produced 50+ WAR, and I’d bet on the class of ‘19 topping that pretty easily.  

I think your list contains the most likely players to have an impact from our recent drafts, but there will probably be 1-2 guys you didn’t expect, and hopefully some non-drafted international guys starting with Basallo.  


 

[now]

3 hours ago, btdart20 said:

You and I have different definitions of things happening at the ML level.  

Adley finished #2 in ROY voting and followed it up with a solid second year.  

Gunnar won the ROY.  

Grayson was a force in the second half.  And Hall proved he belongs in some role.  Same with Westburg.  HK showed promise of not results.  Bradish (while not drafted by us was definitely influenced by our development) has had a very strong start to his career.  Same for Bautista and quite a few other pitchers (and O’Hearn/Hicks).  All contributed to a 101 win season.

And yes, we’ve had a few misses or poor SSS showings.

It’s one thing to say not all prospects make it at the ML level.  It’s wise not to count chickens before they hatch.  That’s Risk-Aversion 101 and the need for insurance policies.  Which we/fans seem to abhor.

As we know, “past performance does not guarantee future results”.  Portfolio managers take that to heart and search for the why/how.  Fans/retail investors?  Some might want to but we just don’t have the same high frequency trading tools the pros have.

The point I take from your post is that, while the numbers of our draft successes lately (GRod, Adley, Gunnar) are so far still in the normal range, the quality of those performances is high-end. And yes, it is kind of obvious to be cautious about prospect hype, but also easy to get carried away with high hopes. At least we have the means to improve that track record now, given the org. tools you mention.

[now]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

According to a past review I did of a now-defunct site called The Baseball Gauge, on any given March 1 a median farm system has in it 36 players who will reach the majors and they will accumulate about 105 rWAR collectively.  But results vary widely.  A great farm system can produce 300 rWAR and a terrible one can produce 25 (like the 3/1/07 Orioles system did).   

Another study I did from the 1998-2005 period concluded that a median draft produces about 14.5 rWAR, whereas the mean was about 23.2.  Some drafts are way better than others.  

So by that measure, the 2019 draft at 16.2 rWAR has already passed the median and should be an absolute crusher.  Based on what I looked at, only 14% of all team drafts produced 50+ WAR, and I’d bet on the class of ‘19 topping that pretty easily.  

I think your list contains the most likely players to have an impact from our recent drafts, but there will probably be 1-2 guys you didn’t expect, and hopefully some non-drafted international guys starting with Basallo.  


 

A couple of less touted draft picks I was tempted to include were Handley and Ardoin, given the need (not necessarily in Balt.) in their position, C. 

[owknows]

I do find it interesting how many 2006 - 2013 draft picks went on to have pretty impressive careers... with other teams.

[Tony-OH]

On 12/24/2023 at 4:34 PM, owknows said:

I do find it interesting how many 2006 - 2013 draft picks went on to have pretty impressive careers... with other teams.

When you see that you have to think development was the bigger problem than drafting.

[wse120372]

5 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

When you see that you have to think development was the bigger problem than drafting.

Friend of mine spent a year in Norfolk during the Duquette years after bouncing around a few other orgs. He said they didn't even try to develop you. He likened it to a gym teacher just rolling out basketballs and calling it a day. 

[Tony-OH]

57 minutes ago, wse120372 said:

Friend of mine spent a year in Norfolk during the Duquette years after bouncing around a few other orgs. He said they didn't even try to develop you. He likened it to a gym teacher just rolling out basketballs and calling it a day. 

It was like that long before Duquette's era, but yes, the change in development since Elias took over is immense.