Drafting the bats and trading for the arms

[drjohnnyfever1]

3 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

In regards to the bolded line did you mean "don't understand"? For the sake of argument let's assume that you did. Understanding expiring prospect value and being able to either successfully 1) free up a spot for said prospects or 2) trade said prospects before their value starts to decline are two completely different things. Yes Elias and his team did a great job restocking the farm system and leading us to a 101 win season. I'd argue that it probably happened a year or two earlier the he expected and that Elias might have been counting on those years to address the hitter/pitcher disparity amongst our prospects. Now that the target has moved we're going to see how well Elias is  able to pivot and make adjustments to his original game plan. And while I appreciate your confidence in his ability to make trades to address the issues I have more of a I'll believe it when I see it mindset. In terms of trading, I'm a firm believer that you have to offer value to get value. Too many fans are hung up on "winning" trades, but it's perfectly reasonable to make balanced trades that help both teams. And like I implied in my prior post with all our prospect depth Elias is basically siting at the poker table with pocket aces (i.e., there's no excuse for him not be able to get something done). 

I completely agree with the bolded part.  I really feel like we, as fans, are setting a false timeline of signing and trading expectations because we are winning sooner than expected.  Despite winning, I think Elias and Co. are still in an acquire young talent thru draft and waiver framework.  Will we trade some farm pieces?  I think they demonstrated they would at the trade deadline, but I think they also made a statement that they are not likely to trade top prospects for acquiring tier 1 talent that might not last thru this endgame of that building strategy. 

I think it is far more likely that what the OP wonders about trading bats for arms is going to happen, but that the original building strategy has not completely come to it's conclusion, so that isn't happening just yet.  I also think we are more likely to spend on a quality pitcher or two right now than we are in pairing farm pieces, especially in AAA, that we are still evaluating and hoping fits our long-term rebuild strategy than to trade them away for short term pitchers.  If they do spend, by the time the pitchers they spend on have come to the end of their one or two year deals, Elias and Co. will have had the full scope of their initial build strategy, some of the infield and outfield depth will have come to the end of their deals, and the pitchers that are in the pipeline will have had some more time to mature.

[Moose Milligan]

BTW, I always thought it was maybe, MAYBE a little backwards...draft the bats, trade for the arms.

Sometimes whenever I see that thought pop up on here, I think..."Nah, I'd rather just have a ton of quality pitching coming up through the system and want to have teams courting us with their bats to choose from."

It's hard to think that when looking at where we are right now but I wonder what it'd be like if we had starters and relievers galore and could part with a few of them.

[Greg Pappas]

Earlier in the thread the topic of potentially trading highly regarded (Top 100) hitting prospects for highly regarded pitching prospects arose.   I had recently discussed that with my brother, and it was an interesting discussion.  My memory isn't what it once was, and while I'm sure it's happened, I don't recall seeing trades like this.  

Perhaps teams put a premium on starter prospects, as we see how valuable starters are every deadline and during free agency?  I know I would not have wanted to see us trade Grayson Rodriguez when he was dominating the minors for a similarly valued hitting prospect.  Regardless, I'd love to get the views of our posters on why they would or would not (the TNSTAAPP crowd) like to see such a trade here.

Here's an example (other prospects can be added to offset whatever perceived difference in value is):

• Coby Mayo for the Cubs' RHP Cade Horton  

[waroriole]

4 hours ago, now said:

Yeah, me too! The (>) I used meant "traded for," not "greater than."

Ahhhhh well there you go. 

[sportsfan8703]

Things to consider…

We drafted Nolan McLean to be a pitcher and chose not to sign with us in 2022. 

The Sigbot also loves NCAA players because of more data. I wonder if the bigger NCAA programs have more data available? 

We took two big bonus HS arms in Baumler and Showalter. Baumler has been hurt. We quickly dealt away Showalter in the Flaherty trade. 

All of that combined, with Holt being in the minors full time, I would not be surprised to see us go NCAA Pitcher heavy with our three 1st picks. 

Although, isn’t this supposed to be a weak draft pool of NCAA players because everyone leaving last year that were forced to go to NCAA in the Covid 5 round draft?

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

That’s fine, but I think the problem with that approach is the veterans, aside from Mountcastle or Mullins, have very little trade value, which goes back to my point about having to give quality to get quality. 
 

if Elias has the opportunity to trade Ortiz or Westburg for a young controllable pitcher I think it’s an educated risk that he should take. I think there’s a better than 50% chance that Holliday makes the OD roster and even if he doesn’t they can get by with some combination of Urias/Mateo for a few months until he is ready.  To me that’s a better move than potentially keeping Ortiz at AAA (if Holliday makes the team) where his value would probably start to depreciate because of his age. 

So you think Johnson, McDermott and Povich are poor quality prospects?

I guess we will see what happens in ST with Holliday and Ortiz.  I am not convinced yet that Holliday is ready or that Elias will keep him in the majors to begin the season.  But I do think Holliday will be up during the season.  Then Elias has to make  a decision between Mateo and Ortiz.   

Mayo, Kjerstad and Holliday are quality prospect that are pushing their way to the majors this year and as they do Elias will have to make decisions on  who to keep and who to trade.   I suspect he trades for pitching prospect the same way he did last year.

[now]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

BTW, I always thought it was maybe, MAYBE a little backwards...draft the bats, trade for the arms.

Sometimes whenever I see that thought pop up on here, I think..."Nah, I'd rather just have a ton of quality pitching coming up through the system and want to have teams courting us with their bats to choose from."

It's hard to think that when looking at where we are right now but I wonder what it'd be like if we had starters and relievers galore and could part with a few of them.

Ha ha! I can see it now. If you think we're all being too stingy with our young bats, imagine the outcry if we were hoarding a bunch of young arms. "No way! There will be injuries! We don't know yet who's going to blossom next year! We need them all!"

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Although, isn’t this supposed to be a weak draft pool of NCAA players because everyone leaving last year that were forced to go to NCAA in the Covid 5 round draft?

I think of it as more back to normal.    The 2023 draft was the one where the college-high school mix was reputed to have some NCAA lean because MLB affiliated relatively few kids from the High School Class of 2020.

Coby Mayo fortunately being one of them!

As it turned out looks like both 2022 and 2023 ended up around a dozen high schoolers in the 1st round anyway.

[emmett16]

22 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

Who wouldn't?  I understand that we have Bradish and GRod, but most of us are clamoring for a ToR starter to be even better this season.  I suspect, as most do, that will come from our hitting depth.  

Maybe, that’s one avenue.  But I don’t  see ME giving up what it would take to get someone already established.  I think they likely trade some hitters for lower level pitchers they can develop.  I believe our difference making “ace” type pitcher will come out of our system.  Judging by how they operate I’d be pretty surprised to see multiple top 100 guys go in a trade for one SP.  It just doesn’t seem to be their MO.  They have some wild cards in the system right now that could be that guy (Hall, Povich, Johnson) in addition to Bradish & GRod who could step into that role.  

Edited December 28, 2023 by emmett16

[HakunaSakata]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

So you think Johnson, McDermott and Povich are poor quality prospects?

I guess we will see what happens in ST with Holliday and Ortiz.  I am not convinced yet that Holliday is ready or that Elias will keep him in the majors to begin the season.  But I do think Holliday will be up during the season.  Then Elias has to make  a decision between Mateo and Ortiz.   

Mayo, Kjerstad and Holliday are quality prospect that are pushing their way to the majors this year and as they do Elias will have to make decisions on  who to keep and who to trade.   I suspect he trades for pitching prospect the same way he did last year.

It's not about not liking them, it's that they're behind our high level hitters in terms of their development (i.e., it's going to take a few years). That's the point I made in my original post and why I think there's more of a sense of urgency to trade a young MLB ready hitter for a young MLB read pitcher this offseason. Again, if we had simply finished a few games over .500 last season waiting for those pitchers to develop wouldn't be a problem, but the bar has been set higher and clock is ticking on the service time clocks for some of our best young hitters. Also, trading a young hitter for a young pitcher wouldn't compromise the future of the franchise. Not if Elias' team believes in the player who they're trading for. 

[HakunaSakata]

3 hours ago, drjohnnyfever1 said:

I completely agree with the bolded part.  I really feel like we, as fans, are setting a false timeline of signing and trading expectations because we are winning sooner than expected.  Despite winning, I think Elias and Co. are still in an acquire young talent thru draft and waiver framework.  Will we trade some farm pieces?  I think they demonstrated they would at the trade deadline, but I think they also made a statement that they are not likely to trade top prospects for acquiring tier 1 talent that might not last thru this endgame of that building strategy. 

I think it is far more likely that what the OP wonders about trading bats for arms is going to happen, but that the original building strategy has not completely come to it's conclusion, so that isn't happening just yet.  I also think we are more likely to spend on a quality pitcher or two right now than we are in pairing farm pieces, especially in AAA, that we are still evaluating and hoping fits our long-term rebuild strategy than to trade them away for short term pitchers.  If they do spend, by the time the pitchers they spend on have come to the end of their one or two year deals, Elias and Co. will have had the full scope of their initial build strategy, some of the infield and outfield depth will have come to the end of their deals, and the pitchers that are in the pipeline will have had some more time to mature.

I'm not sure I agree with the bolded part. The best GMs and coaches are the ones who can think on their feet and adapt their game plan to better fit the situation and their players. Getting better faster is a good thing! Now it's up to Elias to adjust his game plan to take into account that we're an actual contender not an aspiring contender. If he chooses to stay the same course then I'm really going to start to question whether he has that ability.  And I'm not talking about compromising the future of the team. I'm looking for a well thought out/calculated trade for a young arm that can help us both in the short term and long term. I know the hypothetical Dylan Cease trade has gotten the majority of the attention, but a trade for one of the Mariner's young SPs (Woo or Miller) would be a much better fit for us in terms of not deviating that much from the original game plan. 

[HakunaSakata]

2 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

Earlier in the thread the topic of potentially trading highly regarded (Top 100) hitting prospects for highly regarded pitching prospects arose.   I had recently discussed that with my brother, and it was an interesting discussion.  My memory isn't what it once was, and while I'm sure it's happened, I don't recall seeing trades like this.  

Perhaps teams put a premium on starter prospects, as we see how valuable starters are every deadline and during free agency?  I know I would not have wanted to see us trade Grayson Rodriguez when he was dominating the minors for a similarly valued hitting prospect.  Regardless, I'd love to get the views of our posters on why they would or would not (the TNSTAAPP crowd) like to see such a trade here.

Here's an example (other prospects can be added to offset whatever perceived difference in value is):

• Coby Mayo for the Cubs' RHP Cade Horton  

Just because we haven't seem many high level prospect for prospect trades doesn't mean they can't happen! That, in fact, would be the perfect move for the Orioles to make because it would only be a small deviation from the original gameplan and it wouldn't compromise the team's future. 

If I were Elias I would be going down the list of top pitching prospects (Skenes, Harrison, Horton (who you mentioned), Tiedemann, Misiorowski,  Hence, Abel, etc.), calling each GM, and offering Westburg, Cowser, or Ortiz for one of them. 

[emmett16]

20 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

It's not about not liking them, it's that they're behind our high level hitters in terms of their development (i.e., it's going to take a few years). That's the point I made in my original post and why I think there's more of a sense of urgency to trade a young MLB ready hitter for a young MLB read pitcher this offseason. Again, if we had simply finished a few games over .500 last season waiting for those pitchers to develop wouldn't be a problem, but the bar has been set higher and clock is ticking on the service time clocks for some of our best young hitters. Also, trading a young hitter for a young pitcher wouldn't compromise the future of the franchise. Not if Elias' team believes in the player who they're trading for. 

Going to take a few years?  They have 6 people in the rotation currently with Hall, Povich, & McDermott knocking on the door.  
 

Clock is ticking?  Darn near the entire team is under Control for 5 years.  

[HakunaSakata]

2 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Going to take a few years?  They have 6 people in the rotation currently with Hall, Povich, & McDermott knocking on the door.  
 

Clock is ticking?  Darn near the entire team is under Control for 5 years.  

The absolute best case scenario for Povich and McDermott would be promotions in 2025. We need to improve our starting rotation now, and yes the clock is ticking because I don't want to waste a single one of those years given the uncertainty surrounding the team's ability and willingness to lock up any of those players long term. 

[Satyr3206]

Just now, HakunaSakata said:

The absolute best case scenario for Povich and McDermott would be promotions in 2025. We need to improve our starting rotation now, and yes the clock is ticking because I don't want to waste a single one of those years given the uncertainty surrounding the team's ability and willingness to lock up any of those players long term. 

I agree.