Drafting the bats and trading for the arms

[Greg Pappas]

This is not a new revelation, as I and others have mentioned this before, but, since the hiring of Elias and his subsequent drafts, the focus seems to have been on taking the safer hitters over the riskier pitchers.  This is a philosophy that makes sense given Elias and Sig Mejdal's deep understanding of statistical analysis. In the draft, the odds of the average hitter being a quality ML'er is higher than a pitcher.  Thus, if I'm right, a plan to draft the best bats available, especially early in the draft where the most value lies, was begun.  Part one, draft the bats.  Part two, trade for arms as needed.  I don't believe Elias has ever admitted to such a plan, which would be natural, but it seems pretty transparent given the evidence.  

So, they had/have a plan and have executed the first part to near perfection; draft the bats. 

• 2019: Adley, Gunnar, Stowers, Ortiz, Hernaiz (traded for Cole Irvin)... 1st pitcher taken was in round 8.
• 2020: Kjerstad, Westburg, Mayo... Covid shortened draft, 1st pitcher taken was in round 5.
• 2021: Cowser, Norby... 1st pitcher taken was in round 5.
• 2022: Holliday, Beavers, Wagner, Fabian... 1st pitcher taken was in round 3.
• 2023: Bradfield, Horvath... Pitchers taken in rounds 2-4, 6-9. The system was bereft of pitching, so I feel they took arms (after two bats) to help offset that discrepancy. 

Part two is trade for pitching as needed.  The need is there, yet which bats to deal is difficult to gauge as many of these bats are just arriving at the big league level.  I get the feeling Elias will wait to add pitching at the trade deadline this Summer, once he gets a better feel of who he wants filling spots moving forward.  However, if an opportunity arises this offseason (or Spring) it wouldn't be a surprise to see him pull the trigger.  Time will tell... it always does.

What are your thoughts?

[sportsfan8703]

I think we’ll see more pitching taken in the next draft with 3 first rd picks and Holt in the minors full time. Holt being in the minors full time is big. There simply weren’t too many arms in full season ball before. We just drafted a ton of pitchers even though we went with EBJ early. Holt has a lot to work with now. 

Drafting the bats has proven to be a quick way to build up the farm and get guys to the MLB faster. I think we’ll see a more balanced farm going forward. Who knows… if we weren’t a 100 win team last year then Irvin gets a longer leash and we could really be applauding the Hernaiz trade. 

[wildcard]

18 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

This is not a new revelation, as I and others have mentioned this before, but, since the hiring of Elias and his subsequent drafts, the focus seems to have been on taking the safer hitters over the riskier pitchers.  This is a philosophy that makes sense given Elias and Sig Mejdal's deep understanding of statistical analysis. In the draft, the odds of the average hitter being a quality ML'er is higher than a pitcher.  Thus, if I'm right, a plan to draft the best bats available, especially early in the draft where the most value lies, was begun.  Part one, draft the bats.  Part two, trade for arms as needed.  I don't believe Elias has ever admitted to such a plan, which would be natural, but it seems pretty transparent given the evidence.  

So, they had/have a plan and have executed the first part to near perfection; draft the bats. 

• 2019: Adley, Gunnar, Stowers, Ortiz, Hernaiz (traded for Cole Irvin)... 1st pitcher taken was in round 8.
• 2020: Kjerstad, Westburg, Mayo... Covid shortened draft, 1st pitcher taken was in round 5.
• 2021: Cowser, Norby... 1st pitcher taken was in round 5.
• 2022: Holliday, Beavers, Wagner, Fabian... 1st pitcher taken was in round 3.
• 2023: Bradfield, Horvath... Pitchers taken in rounds 2-4, 6-9. The system was bereft of pitching, so I feel they took arms (after two bats) to help offset that discrepancy. 

Part two is trade for pitching as needed.  The need is there, yet which bats to deal is difficult to gauge as many of these bats are just arriving at the big league level.  I get the feeling Elias will wait to add pitching at the trade deadline this Summer, once he gets a better feel of who he wants filling spots moving forward.  However, if an opportunity arises this offseason (or Spring) it wouldn't be a surprise to see him pull the trigger.  Time will tell... it always does.

What are your thoughts?

Elias is building his pitching pipeline.   He traded Mancini and Lopez for Johnson, McDermott and Povich.  He will try to build them into major league starters.   

He drafted pitchers in the 2023 draft.

He is drafting and developing international prospects.

He already identifies, acquires and develops relievers with waiver claims and low dollar purchases.

I fully expect he will trade players like Urias, O'Hearn, Stowers, Norby for pitching prospects.

His moves will hopefully progress to where he does not need to sign FA pitchers like Gibson, Lyles, Givens, and Kimbrel because his pitching pipeline for supply the O's future needs.

[Greg Pappas]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Elias is building his pitching pipeline.   He traded Mancini and Lopez for Johnson, McDermott and Povich.  He will try to build them into major league starters.   

He drafted pitchers in the 2023 draft.

He is drafting and developing international prospects.

He already identifies, acquires and develops relievers with waiver claims and low dollar purchases.

I fully expect he will trade players like Urias, O'Hearn, Stowers, Norby for pitching prospects.

His moves will hopefully progress to where he does not need to sign FA pitchers like Gibson, Lyles, Givens, and Kimbrel because his pitching pipeline for supply the O's future needs.

Yes, he has added pitching, but that doesn't refute the OP's main point.  Just look at the Top prospects list and see the difference.  We need difference makers in pitching and I suspect that will come via trades from our wealth of hitting prospects.

[emmett16]

They’ve traded for college pitchers they identified in the draft since year 1 (2019).   Brandish, Povich, Johnson, McDermott, etc.  seem to be a pretty effective strategy.  Folks casually forget the Bradish trade who is our #1 and one of the best pitches in MLB. 

Edited December 27, 2023 by emmett16

[emmett16]

1 hour ago, Greg Pappas said:

Yes, he has added pitching, but that doesn't refute the OP's main point.  Just look at the Top prospects list and see the difference.  We need difference makers in pitching and I suspect that will come via trades from our wealth of hitting prospects.

I’d prefer difference makers in the rotation over difference makers on prospects lists.  

[health55]

FWIW Seattle took college pitchers Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Emerson Hancock in the first rounds of the 2018, 2019 and 2020 drafts.

The Mariners have since drafted five high school position players in the first round:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?team_ID=SEA&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&query_type=franch_round

In the 2021 draft the Mariners selected college pitchers Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo in  the fourth and sixth rounds.

It's an either/or proposition; it's a matter of balancing the current and long-term needs of the franchise.

[health55]

8 minutes ago, health55 said:

FWIW Seattle took college pitchers Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Emerson Hancock in the first rounds of the 2018, 2019 and 2020 drafts.

The Mariners have since drafted five high school position players in the first round:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?team_ID=SEA&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&query_type=franch_round

In the 2021 draft the Mariners selected college pitchers Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo in  the fourth and sixth rounds.

It's an either/or proposition; it's a matter of balancing the current and long-term needs of the franchise.

It's not an either/or proposition; it's a matter of balancing the current and long-term needs of the franchise.

[Frobby]

While I do think our minor league system is stronger on the offensive side, our major league team is pretty balanced.  Last year we were 7th best in MLB in both runs scored and runs allowed.  Our minor league system is stacked with offense at the AAA level, but more balanced below that.  We drafted a lot of pitchers in the higher rounds last year and hopefully a couple of them will pop in 2024.  I’d be happy to see us go pitching-heavy again in the ‘24 draft.  

[Greg Pappas]

1 hour ago, emmett16 said:

I’d prefer difference makers in the rotation over difference makers on prospects lists.  

Who wouldn't?  I understand that we have Bradish and GRod, but most of us are clamoring for a ToR starter to be even better this season.  I suspect, as most do, that will come from our hitting depth.  

Edited December 27, 2023 by Greg Pappas

[btdart20]

45 minutes ago, Frobby said:

While I do think our minor league system is stronger on the offensive side, our major league team is pretty balanced.  Last year we were 7th best in MLB in both runs scored and runs allowed.  Our minor league system is stacked with offense at the AAA level, but more balanced below that.  We drafted a lot of pitchers in the higher rounds last year and hopefully a couple of them will pop in 2024.  I’d be happy to see us go pitching-heavy again in the ‘24 draft.  

In a sense, our AAA is over-weighted hitting moreso than under-weighted in pitching.  Other than C and 1B, every other position has a top 10 prospect in the org.  Check that, in a stacked org.  Not saying we don't have pitching work to do, but it's not as bad as we like to think either.

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

In a sense, our AAA is over-weighted hitting moreso than under-weighted in pitching.  Other than C and 1B, every other position has a top 10 prospect in the org.  Check that, in a stacked org.  Not saying we don't have pitching work to do, but it's not as bad as we like to think either.

For what it’s worth, the Tides were 4th in the International League in runs/game and best in the league in runs allowed per game.  So, it’s not like they had no pitching.  But the pitching was more driven by AAAA veterans compared to the hitting.  

[RarityFlaherty]

4 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I think we’ll see more pitching taken in the next draft with 3 first rd picks and Holt in the minors full time. Holt being in the minors full time is big. There simply weren’t too many arms in full season ball before. We just drafted a ton of pitchers even though we went with EBJ early. Holt has a lot to work with now. 

Drafting the bats has proven to be a quick way to build up the farm and get guys to the MLB faster. I think we’ll see a more balanced farm going forward. Who knows… if we weren’t a 100 win team last year then Irvin gets a longer leash and we could really be applauding the Hernaiz trade. 

Yeah I agree. I think we should see them take more chances at pitchers in the draft in the future. I think the draft the bats strategy was a smart way to get the rebuild going, but we will probably need to take a few more chances on pitchers to sustain success. Pitchers just seem to cost too much by way of trade for trading to be our primary source of acquiring them. Now that we have a solid foundation to work from, we can afford to gamble a little more on pitchers in the draft. And the extra picks really help allow us to gamble on a pitcher with at least one of those top 3 picks. 

Edited December 27, 2023 by RarityFlaherty

[btdart20]

42 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

Who wouldn't?  I understand that we have Bradish and GRod, but most of us are clamoring for a ToR starter to be even better this season.  I suspect, as most do, that will come from our hitting depth.  

Maybe I'm being too nuanced/literal here, if so, I apologize.  But only about 10-15 SPs were better than Bradish in 2023.  Just providing perspective on what you're asking for. 

Are Cease, Valdez, or Luzardo (just from the thread titles currently on page 1) clearly an upgrade over Bradish?  I don't think so.

[Greg Pappas]

8 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Maybe I'm being too nuanced/literal here, if so, I apologize.  But only about 10-15 SPs were better than Bradish in 2023.  Just providing perspective on what you're asking for. 

Are Cease, Valdez, or Luzardo (just from the thread titles currently on page 1) clearly an upgrade over Bradish?  I don't think so.

I am not saying Bradish isn't an excellent ToR himself in the slightest.  He's outstanding and a #1.  All I'm saying is we could use another top starter. That's it.  We may or may not trade for one, but we have the bats to do so.  However you want to slot this new starter into our rotation is fine. 2nd? 3rd? It's alright by me.  The OP was to illustrate what I feel has been a plan to take advantage of the math that batters are somewhat more likely to be ML players, and how we can then turn around and acquire pitchers as needed.  Naturally there may be a need in the field as well, and that wealth of positional talent can fill whatever need we have.

Edited December 27, 2023 by Greg Pappas