This offseason will tell us a lot about Elias

[SemperFi]

4 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I think the wall did that though in getting both Lyles and to a better extent Gibson to sign here on relatively cheap one year deals. Neither probably sign here to rebuild their value if it's the bandbox that is was. 

Personally I think Elias is financially restrained from going after top free agent talent that require 3 or more years. In his comments to the press last year, John Angelos certainly not give any indication he was willing to open up the checking account to get premium free agent starting pitching. Heck, he was talking about raising ticket prices just to try ad keep our current young talent as they get more expensive.

 

I don't disagree with you but will note that there is absolutely no way Elias turned down SF to come work for the Angelos family without some shared vision of what payroll would be.  I also believe that he would have left (ala Kim Ng) if JA reneged on that vision, instead he extended his contract.  He has plenty of options-he chose to stay. 

The most likely mitigating factor is PA's health and the likely sale of the team which affects long term contracts-especially risky FA pitchers.  I just don't believe that ME as precise with verbage as he is would make that statement without the budget to pursue it.  

[Three Run Homer]

If I am Mike Elias, I am not trading Mayo or Basallo for Dylan Cease, not now, not ever.  Cease could be the best pitcher in baseball in the first half of 2024, and I'm still not doing that, because Mayo and Basallo are comparable to Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday in terms of overall potential.   

Having said that, I have no confidence that time is on the Orioles side in negotiations with the White Sox.  Every free agent signing takes away a potential suitor for Cease but it also takes away a potential option for the Orioles.  

My opinion is that Elias needs to act as if Cease is not on the market.  More broadly, he needs to abandon the idea of acquiring a top-line established starter by trade this offseason, considering that the other names in the rumor mill all pitch for contending teams that don't want to weaken their rotation right now. 

That means two things:  (1) he needs to put his foot down with Angelos and insist that he be allowed to sign someone like Stroman to a three year contract; (2) he needs to start creating room for guys like Ortiz and Kjerstad on the major league team by trading some of the incumbent players currently blocking them.  

 

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, Number5 said:

I think you meant is not the guy.

Yep.. I'll fix, thanks.

[spiritof66]

8 hours ago, interloper said:

The more I think about Cease, the more concerned I become about him just being Flaherty 2.0. Something caused that bad year - do we know what it was? I'm sure it's part of the sticking point in trade negotiations. The O's have to protect themsevles from giving up all these guys and Cease just being another Dean Kremer. Or worse, he's compensating for something and like you said, his arm explodes. 

Any time you acquire a pitcher, you run a risk that he'll become injured, ineffective, or both, so that you might be committing to pay him for some period of low, or zero, or even negative value. Obviously, the longer the contract you inherit or enter into, the greater the risk that will happen. The Orioles and other teams presumably have data that quantify that risk for each pitcher based on his history, age, throwing motion, pitch arsenal, etc. If the risk is high for Cease, and that wouldn't surprise me, maybe he has never been the right guy. But that risk will always be there. If you want to acquire an established pitcher, that's part of the package. 

I'm convinced that the Orioles' chances of qualifying for and advancing in the postseason  in 2024 would be increased substantially by the addition of an upgrade to the so-far-four-member starting staff. That will require spending (in dollars or prospects) and taking on risk sooner or later. Since July, it's felt like "later" to me. I understand that some will disagree, and that they may turn out to be right. I also understand that the decisions to stand pat have been dictated by John Angelos -- doesn't matter to me since I don't know and won't know who is playing what roles  in these decisions.

[E-D-D-I-E]

Unlike many of you, I believe we need to add a starter. The average team starter usage is 12 starters per season. Adding a starter makes our pen that much better as well. Wells/Hall/Irvin stay in the pen and are good for injury replacements to the rotation. We were VERY fortunate last season with injuries.

The time to strike is now.

Far too many assumptions about payroll being made as well. We are assuming Angelos won't pay. We don't know that and Elias may be the holdup in a deal.

[Safelykept]

5 hours ago, Three Run Homer said:

If I am Mike Elias, I am not trading Mayo or Basallo for Dylan Cease, not now, not ever.  Cease could be the best pitcher in baseball in the first half of 2024, and I'm still not doing that, because Mayo and Basallo are comparable to Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday in terms of overall potential.   

Having said that, I have no confidence that time is on the Orioles side in negotiations with the White Sox.  Every free agent signing takes away a potential suitor for Cease but it also takes away a potential option for the Orioles.  

My opinion is that Elias needs to act as if Cease is not on the market.  More broadly, he needs to abandon the idea of acquiring a top-line established starter by trade this offseason, considering that the other names in the rumor mill all pitch for contending teams that don't want to weaken their rotation right now. 

That means two things:  (1) he needs to put his foot down with Angelos and insist that he be allowed to sign someone like Stroman to a three year contract; (2) he needs to start creating room for guys like Ortiz and Kjerstad on the major league team by trading some of the incumbent players currently blocking them.  

 

Agree with most all of this except abandoning trade options for pitching. JA absolutely has to loosen the purse strings. I dont know if its 3 years 60 million, but if its a FA it has to be something north of Lyles or Gibson. Possibly extend Means. The money is there The O's put 600.000 more fans in Att last year plus playoffs, and likely to be even more this Year. How does Mike stay  if  JA doesn't? As for Ortiz if hes not traded then at least one of Mateo urias need to go, he should be on our opening day roster as UTL infielder

[Jagwar]

16 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Waiting until the deadline assumes we will be in position to make a trade.

We can bee in a position to make a trade whether we are buyers or sellers. 

[Jagwar]

15 hours ago, turtlebowl said:

How did fortune work out when we traded 3 promising young players Harnisch, Shilling and Finley for Glenn Davis? LOL 

At the time of the trade, Davis was one of the most feared hitters in the game, and I could be wrong but none of those 3 prospects were considered to be so valuable that there would be seller's regret.    

[Roll Tide]

9 hours ago, Safelykept said:

Agree with most all of this except abandoning trade options for pitching. JA absolutely has to loosen the purse strings. I dont know if its 3 years 60 million, but if its a FA it has to be something north of Lyles or Gibson. Possibly extend Means. The money is there The O's put 600.000 more fans in Att last year plus playoffs, and likely to be even more this Year. How does Mike stay  if  JA doesn't? As for Ortiz if hes not traded then at least one of Mateo urias need to go, he should be on our opening day roster as our starting SS

He's a plus defender, Gunner can play 3B and leave Urias at the Utility guy.

[DenaOsHon]

22 hours ago, interloper said:

I'm not sure this offseason will tell us all that much about Elias. While it might be true that he'd rather hoard prospects, he's also operating in a very volatile ownership environment which is seeing the payout of the MASN deal, the new lease, possible sale negotiations, and god knows what else behind the scenes. 

Now maybe none of that actually matters. Maybe Elias is having a very normal off-season. But we don't know, and there's just a lot we don't know or will ever know about things behind the scenes. 

I do know that Elias won't make a bad deal for the sake of it and if it comes to that, he'll feel good about his ML team and his farm system and figure out the backlog later. 

This is what I am been saying all off-season. I think there is so much more at play than we know which is potentially impacting our abiltiy to acquire talent via free agency and or trades. My expectations continue to remain low till Elias makes a move or two. Prove me wrong Elias!

[CaptainRedbeard]

I think Elias probably does not feel the pressure to “need” to make a trade. It’s the best outcome given the budget constraints and how an additional SP is the only avenue to clearly improve the current roster, but I doubt he thinks it is essential. Two reasons:

1) GMs run a spectrum of either being willing to go “all-in” to win within championship “windows” or aiming to have a consistently above average team every year, with a possibility of winning the WS in the years that break right for you. I think the more analytically inclined organizations fall more into the latter group, and that includes Elias. The reason being that the playoffs are such a crapshoot, your WS odds are better if you consistently punch your ticket to the dance in more years than to go into the playoffs with the best possible team in fewer years. The Orioles are already at least around a top 10 team with their current roster.

2) The only top prospects who are very affected by the abundance of prospects are Westburg, Ortiz and Mayo. Henderson and Holliday will be at two of the IF spots long term so only one of those 3 will be able to get regular playing time at the other IF spot. They’re probably not 100% sure Mayo can continue improving enough to stick at 3B. One of Westburg or Ortiz should be traded eventually but it doesn’t necessarily need to be this offseason. None of the other top prospects are blocked long term in the same way, even if Cowser/Kjestad ultimately need Santander/O’Hearn/Hays to move on for full playing time. Norby and Stowers are solid prospects, but not the caliber you need to clear space on a contending team for, and Stowers has 2 option years and Norby hasn’t even been added to the 40 man yet. They’re not likely to depreciate in value by being in AAA and they can continue to serve as depth there. 

[Otter]

5 hours ago, Jagwar said:

At the time of the trade, Davis was one of the most feared hitters in the game, and I could be wrong but none of those 3 prospects were considered to be so valuable that there would be seller's regret.    

I don't remember the general consensus back then, but I do remember I was not that happy with the trade at the time it was made.  Two promising young pitchers with a lot of upside, and Finley was one of my favorite players.  And part of the best outfield in O's history in my opinion...  

[Number5]

34 minutes ago, Otter said:

I don't remember the general consensus back then, but I do remember I was not that happy with the trade at the time it was made.  Two promising young pitchers with a lot of upside, and Finley was one of my favorite players.  And part of the best outfield in O's history in my opinion...  

I think the large majority of fans were happy with the trade when it happened.  No one foresaw Davis crashing and burning the way he did.  He was a true slugger for Houston.

[Frobby]

17 minutes ago, Number5 said:

I think the large majority of fans were happy with the trade when it happened.  No one foresaw Davis crashing and burning the way he did.  He was a true slugger for Houston.

As it turned out, it would have been a lopsided trade even if Davis had been healthy and performed well for us.   At the time we had a pretty exciting young team but were in need of a MOO bat.  I was okay with it, but Davis was hugely disappointing for us.   

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

 

1) GMs run a spectrum of either being willing to go “all-in” to win within championship “windows” or aiming to have a consistently above average team every year, with a possibility of winning the WS in the years that break right for you. I think the more analytically inclined organizations fall more into the latter group, and that includes Elias. The reason being that the playoffs are such a crapshoot, your WS odds are better if you consistently punch your ticket to the dance in more years than to go into the playoffs with the best possible team in fewer years. 

I think this is an accurate read on Elias.   And I think Elias is correct, especially given the team’s financial constraints.   That doesn’t mean he won’t look for a prudent trade that can put us in a better position this year.  But he’s not going to do something where he thinks the short term gain is outweighed by the longer term loss.