Mateo Noise

[Just Regular]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Fun fact about Gunnar: he turned more unassisted DPs (13) than any other SS in MLB, despite playing less than half the games there.   I’m not saying that’s a measure of how good his defense was, it’s literally just a fun fact.   And, it probably shows that he prefers to execute DPs that way when he can, rather than feeding the 2B, moreso than other shortstops.  

Clifford's gonna Clifford.     This find does give some texture to that time Adam Frazier didn't let him have a pop-up and kind of irked flipped the ball to him as they jogged off the field.     Can't really blame him though - if I had Gunnar's Arm, I might be wary feeding Frazier on a play I'm confident I can convert.

I'd guess at this hour Gunnar and Westburg/Ortiz have taken thousands of double play reps together, and Gunnar and Holliday not very many, so Spring it'll be interesting to see how Hyde works it on the chance that's the Opening Day keystone combo.

[Tony-OH]

41 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I believe it’s probably correct that Ortiz has the defensive edge over Gunnar at SS, and if Ortiz’s offense turns out solid at the major league level, I’d prefer him to be the SS.   

However, while I like OAA, I don’t look exclusively at that to judge defense.  Gunnar was at +7.4 UZR, +10 Rdrs, +9 Rtot as a SS last year.  His 13.9 UZR/150 was by far the best of any SS with 500+ innings 7.3 was 2nd).  His 21 Rdrs/yr and 18 Rtot/yr also also were best.   So, all of those indicators do suggest he was elite at SS.   My feeling is that if he wasn’t “elite” (whatever that means), he was pretty darned close.

Fun fact about Gunnar: he turned more unassisted DPs (13) than any other SS in MLB, despite playing less than half the games there.   I’m not saying that’s a measure of how good his defense was, it’s literally just a fun fact.   And, it probably shows that he prefers to execute DPs that way when he can, rather than feeding the 2B, moreso than other shortstops.  
 

Yes, I'm well aware of the subjective ratings that come from UZR. Here's an article that explains better than I could why I think OOA and now defensive runs are more accurate.

https://www.thedrummeyangle.com/post/defensive-metrics-examining-how-to-evaluate-the-game-s-fielders

[terpoh]

2 hours ago, CP0861 said:

If he's elite at SS, all of that translates to 3b also. Especially factoring in his size. He's absolutely built for 3b. If you have another plus option at SS (Ortiz? Holliday?), moving him makes sense and would create a lockdown left side. I haven't seen Ortiz and Holliday play...sounds like Ortiz is hopefully the real deal, but I dunno.

If you want him at SS for now, I wouldn't disagree, but long term....how many 6'3" 225 lb shortstops can you think of in their 30's? Historically, how many gold glovers can you think of that big besides Cal (who won 2 in 15  years)?

I dont know that being good at SS just automatically translates to 3B. Not saying hes not better at 3B, but I just liked what I saw of him at SS. There is no guarantee that either Ortiz or Holiday will play a better SS in the big leagues either. Gunnar is on pace to be a free agent at 27 so not sure we'll have to worry about him in his 30's. Would love that, but I have no faith in Angelos to allow the kind of extension its going to take. But he's also about as athletic as you can be at 6'3 225. Hes not some lumbering big man. 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Volpe won the GG with a DRS of 15 and and a OAA of 1 in 1346 innings at SS.   In less than 600 innings at SS Henderson had a DRS of 10 and a OAA of 0.    If you put weight in DRS and UZR/150 then Henderson was really, really good.   If you go with OAA, nothing special.   

Wait, you're not using the gold glove winner as an example of who is elite, are you? This is an award that once given to Rafeal Palmeiro when he DH'd for much of the year. This an award that was given to Alex Gordon a GG in left field when every advanced metrics said he was below average including both DRS and OAA. Eric Hosmer won the GG in 2017 at 1B because he had won previous years, but he was below average in OAA and DRS and there were several better candidates. And I know we don't want to say it, Adam Jones won the GG in 2012 and was pretty below average in every metric.

Watch this video if you want to see more reasons why GG wins are not a great metric to use: 

 

[RZNJ]

16 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Wait, you're not using the gold glove winner as an example of who is elite, are you? This is an award that once given to Rafeal Palmeiro when he DH'd for much of the year. This an award that was given to Alex Gordon a GG in left field when every advanced metrics said he was below average including both DRS and OAA. Eric Hosmer won the GG in 2017 at 1B because he had won previous years, but he was below average in OAA and DRS and there were several better candidates. And I know we don't want to say it, Adam Jones won the GG in 2012 and was pretty below average in every metric.

Watch this video if you want to see more reasons why GG wins are not a great metric to use: 

 

Never said the GG meant elite.  Just pointing out that Volpe won it and some of Hendersons defensive numbers were better.  Hendersons DRS also compares favorably to Swanson who has great OAA numbers.   Who do you feel is an elite SS or the best 2-3 fielding SS in baseball?

[CP0861]

52 minutes ago, terpoh said:

I dont know that being good at SS just automatically translates to 3B. Not saying hes not better at 3B, but I just liked what I saw of him at SS. There is no guarantee that either Ortiz or Holiday will play a better SS in the big leagues either. Gunnar is on pace to be a free agent at 27 so not sure we'll have to worry about him in his 30's. Would love that, but I have no faith in Angelos to allow the kind of extension its going to take. But he's also about as athletic as you can be at 6'3 225. Hes not some lumbering big man. 

I think we all saw him do well there and like him there. Gunnar is the man, I get it. I'm not saying he can't play SS by any means. But it's not just a matter of one position, it's a matter of putting the best possible defense on the field. Everyone loves Gunnar, but that doesn't mean Ortiz and/or Holliday can't play the spot just as well or possibly better.

There are always exceptions, but speaking specifically about Gunnar and not generally, I think sliding from SS to 3b would translate very well with him. If you have the athleticism and reflexes to play SS, you can probably pick it at 3b. Range is less valuable at 3b (which is why Brooks played there) and the arm is arguably more valuable. Gunnar has a good arm, which is often the part that doesn't always allow a SS to slide over.

And you're absolutely right, there is no guarantee on Ortiz or Holliday. I get that and I'm okay with leaving Henderson there if they are underwhelming, but if they are what it sounds like they (hopefully) are, I think the best defensive left side is Ortiz/Holliday at SS and Gunnar at 3b. Personally, I think Holliday is the guy at SS but maybe not in 2024.

I'm really REALLY looking forward to ST.

 

 

Edited January 9 by CP0861

[Tony-OH]

42 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Never said the GG meant elite.  Just pointing out that Volpe won it and some of Hendersons defensive numbers were better.  Hendersons DRS also compares favorably to Swanson who has great OAA numbers.   Who do you feel is an elite SS or the best 2-3 fielding SS in baseball?

Dansby Swanson (15), Ezequiel Tovar (12) and Willie Adams (12) were the top three shortstops for Fielding Run Value. Even taking 3B into account, Henderson came in tied for 39th best, at 1 FRV. From an OAA perspective, Swanson (20), Willie Adames (16), and Tovar (16) were top three. Witt was 4th with 14 OAA. Gunnar wa tied with Maeo at 0 OAA. 

So while Gunnar was solid average a shortstop, he's far from the "elite" status there. Now, play him 150 games at 3B and let's see how the numbers shake out.

[now]

And to add to the above conversation, a MLB-execs poll surprisingly includes some votes for Holliday as "Best Defensive Prospect" (Bradfield placed higher, ranking third). Not sure most here would agree on the defense, though there's little argument for top ranking as a hitter. 

[RZNJ]

8 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Dansby Swanson (15), Ezequiel Tovar (12) and Willie Adams (12) were the top three shortstops for Fielding Run Value. Even taking 3B into account, Henderson came in tied for 39th best, at 1 FRV. From an OAA perspective, Swanson (20), Willie Adames (16), and Tovar (16) were top three. Witt was 4th with 14 OAA. Gunnar wa tied with Maeo at 0 OAA. 

So while Gunnar was solid average a shortstop, he's far from the "elite" status there. Now, play him 150 games at 3B and let's see how the numbers shake out.

He played about the same amount at 3B as SS last year.   It seems like you’re giving weight to the SS numbers but disregarding the 3B numbers (let’s see what he can do over a full season there).

[Tony-OH]

7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

He played about the same amount at 3B as SS last year.   It seems like you’re giving weight to the SS numbers but disregarding the 3B numbers (let’s see what he can do over a full season there).

Not sure how I'm doing that at all by what I just posted. I said combined he was worth 1 FRV and O OAA. I personally think Gunnar will end up a plus defensive 3B, perhaps even elite at some point. My entire argument is that I don't think Gunnar will be an elite defensive SS and certainly was not last year. He was solid average, which is still very good. He's certainly playable there.