One possible reason Elias has not made a big trade...

[Greg Pappas]

On 1/20/2024 at 10:30 AM, Tony-OH said:

One thing we have not really explored is why Elias has not been able to move his position prospects for pitching prospects. I think this is why he changed his drafting philosophy last year because he realized that teams don't trade starting pitching prospects for positional prospects very often. 

The grow the bats, acquire the arms drafting philosophy has been a pretty big question mark so far, and until he makes a trade for a major league veteran #1-#3 starting pitcher, or trades from his positional depth and acquires starting pitching prospects, I will agree with you that this part of his GM skills is still up for evaluation.

I was about to post about this and realized I'd seen it somewhere before, LOL! I had already typed it out, like this: 

I've been thinking that if Elias doesn't find the asking price for these ToR MLB pitchers, like Luzardo, Cease, etc..., to his liking, that perhaps another strategy could be the fairly rare trading of a hitting prospect for an equally talented pitching prospect.  I'm not talking about low level guys, but those at AAA/AA and highly regarded.  There are few to choose from, so the odds are low that we'd find a match, but it could be worth exploring.  

LHP Robbie Snelling of the Padres would be my top target, with RHP Mick Abel of the Phillies another solid option.  The issue with trades like these is that often starting pitching is a need for the team with the pitching prospects as much as those seeking to trade for them.  San Diego needs starters, while the Phillies would seem to be good this year.   Regardless, the idea of a prospect swap is intriguing.

[Otter]

26 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

I was about to post about this and realized I'd seen it somewhere before, LOL! I had already typed it out, like this: 

I've been thinking that if Elias doesn't find the asking price for these ToR MLB pitchers, like Luzardo, Cease, etc..., to his liking, that perhaps another strategy could be the fairly rare trading of a hitting prospect for an equally talented pitching prospect.  I'm not talking about low level guys, but those at AAA/AA and highly regarded.  There are few to choose from, so the odds are low that we'd find a match, but it could be worth exploring.  

LHP Robbie Snelling of the Padres would be my top target, with RHP Mick Abel of the Phillies another solid option.  The issue with trades like these is that often starting pitching is a need for the team with the pitching prospects as much as those seeking to trade for them.  San Diego needs starters, while the Phillies would seem to be good this year.   Regardless, the idea of a prospect swap is intriguing.

In theory this sounds good, but how often do you hear about a prospect for prospect trade?  Off the top of my head I can't recall the O's ever doing a legit prospect for legit prospect trade.  I doubt teams would be keen on trading legit pitching prospects because no matter how much pitching it appears you have, you always need more.

[Greg Pappas]

5 minutes ago, Otter said:

In theory this sounds good, but how often do you hear about a prospect for prospect trade?  Off the top of my head I can't recall the O's ever doing a legit prospect for legit prospect trade.  I doubt teams would be keen on trading legit pitching prospects because no matter how much pitching it appears you have, you always need more.

You may have missed this part about it being fairly rare... 

33 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

I've been thinking that if Elias doesn't find the asking price for these ToR MLB pitchers, like Luzardo, Cease, etc..., to his liking, that perhaps another strategy could be the fairly rare trading of a hitting prospect for an equally talented pitching prospect.

 

Edited January 22 by Greg Pappas

[Otter]

1 minute ago, Greg Pappas said:

You may have missed this part about it being fairly rare... 

 

Yes, gotcha.  But I'm thinking it goes beyond rare to wondering if the O's have ever done a trade like that?

[Greg Pappas]

4 minutes ago, Otter said:

Yes, gotcha.  But I'm thinking it goes beyond rare to wondering if the O's have ever done a trade like that?

In their history?  Most likely.  But what we've done or haven't done before Elias doesn't really matter outside of being a curiosity.

[sportsfan8703]

11 minutes ago, Otter said:

In theory this sounds good, but how often do you hear about a prospect for prospect trade?  Off the top of my head I can't recall the O's ever doing a legit prospect for legit prospect trade.  I doubt teams would be keen on trading legit pitching prospects because no matter how much pitching it appears you have, you always need more.

The Dodgers have pulled off two prospect-prospect trades this season because their 40 man is so loaded that everytime they sign someone they to trade someone or DFA a potentially useful piece. There’s potential there to deal them a non 40 man prospect for one of their 5-6 SPs ticketed for AAA. 

Also, as far as draft strategy for this upcoming draft, I have two questions…

1. Is this considered a strong, moderate, or weak draft.

2. What about in terms of pitching.

Looking into the future, we probably have to trade or extend Mullins and Hays next offseason. So we could get pitching back in those deals. 

Overall, we’re into phase 2 of the “trust the plan” where Elias and Co. need to draft pitching and develop it. The same with the DSL. Shout out to Koby Perez. Also, Chris Holt gets to have some tools to work his wizardry with. 

[Brooks The Great]

12 minutes ago, Otter said:

Yes, gotcha.  But I'm thinking it goes beyond rare to wondering if the O's have ever done a trade like that?

The Orioles have never had a farm system as stacked as this one, and it's stacked with predominantly hitters. Previous history doesn't apply to this situation.

All it takes is to find another team with a need for MLB-ready position players that has more pitching in its farm system (or young controllable MLB SPs) by comparison. There are a few (Marlins, Guardians, Mariners come to mind), so I don't think it would be too difficult for Elias to find a trade partner if he wants to land an upper level pitching prospect or two.

Edited January 22 by Brooks The Great

[RZNJ]

One problem.  I doubt very much that someone like Robbie Snelling can be counted on to be a #3 ML starter this year.  It’s a fine move for the future but it doesn’t really address what Elias is attempting to do this year.

[Greg Pappas]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

One problem.  I doubt very much that someone like Robbie Snelling can be counted on to be a #3 ML starter this year.  It’s a fine move for the future but it doesn’t really address what Elias is attempting to do this year.

I agree completely.  The thought is in consideration of adding starting pitching talent to the system for 2025 and beyond.  Naturally if a good prospect is ML ready, all the merrier.  A trade for one of many reportedly available current ML starters would be the likely route for this season.

[Frobby]

30 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The Dodgers have pulled off two prospect-prospect trades this season because their 40 man is so loaded that everytime they sign someone they to trade someone or DFA a potentially useful piece. There’s potential there to deal them a non 40 man prospect for one of their 5-6 SPs ticketed for AAA. 

I think most prospect for prospect trades are probably like this, one team with 40-man issues trading a blocked prospect for a younger guy not yet required to be on the 40.  I can’t really think of a trade involving prospects in AAA on both sides.   But there’s no reason it couldn’t happen if the teams’ needs matched up.  

[wildbillhiccup]

1 hour ago, Greg Pappas said:

I was about to post about this and realized I'd seen it somewhere before, LOL! I had already typed it out, like this: 

I've been thinking that if Elias doesn't find the asking price for these ToR MLB pitchers, like Luzardo, Cease, etc..., to his liking, that perhaps another strategy could be the fairly rare trading of a hitting prospect for an equally talented pitching prospect.  I'm not talking about low level guys, but those at AAA/AA and highly regarded.  There are few to choose from, so the odds are low that we'd find a match, but it could be worth exploring.  

LHP Robbie Snelling of the Padres would be my top target, with RHP Mick Abel of the Phillies another solid option.  The issue with trades like these is that often starting pitching is a need for the team with the pitching prospects as much as those seeking to trade for them.  San Diego needs starters, while the Phillies would seem to be good this year.   Regardless, the idea of a prospect swap is intriguing.

In theory it makes sense, but in reality I think it's a flawed strategy. Mostly because of the rarity of prospect for prospect trades and the fact that teams seem to value young pitching more than they value young hitting. So in essence if you take that approach you're paying more than if you would have just taken a more balanced approach to drafting hitters and pitchers. 

[Tony-OH]

45 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

One problem.  I doubt very much that someone like Robbie Snelling can be counted on to be a #3 ML starter this year.  It’s a fine move for the future but it doesn’t really address what Elias is attempting to do this year.

It's a two fold approach though this offseason. Obvious the first part is improving this team for 2024. That's most important.

The second part is moving major league ready prospects that are depth for maybe some upside pitching prospects? Guys like Norby and Stowers come to mind. If Elias was able to get a Bradish out of an end of the line Bundy, somebody might be willing to part with an A-ball starting pitching prospect that could provide starting pitching depth in a few years. 

[Tony-OH]

7 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

In theory it makes sense, but in reality I think it's a flawed strategy. Mostly because of the rarity of prospect for prospect trades and the fact that teams seem to value young pitching more than they value young hitting. So in essence if you take that approach you're paying more than if you would have just taken a more balanced approach to drafting hitters and pitchers. 

Which is why i think we've seen Elias change his draft strategy last year and why we may see more high picks starting to go towards pitching. I'd really like to see them go after a high school upside pitcher with one of three early picks. Are they volatile sure, but at some point you have to start investing upside pitching and not thinking you can acquire it because under Angelos, Elias is never going to have the budget to do so.

 

[wildbillhiccup]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

Which is why i think we've seen Elias change his draft strategy last year and why we may see more high picks starting to go towards pitching. I'd really like to see them go after a high school upside pitcher with one of three early picks. Are they volatile sure, but at some point you have to start investing upside pitching and not thinking you can acquire it because under Angelos, Elias is never going to have the budget to do so.

 

Agreed. There's definitely been a shift it's just unfortunate that our crop of young pitchers are on a different timeline then our first crop of young hitters. Elias has done a bang up job so far, but now he's really going to have to get creative to try and maximize those Rutschman, Henderson, Holliday, etc. years. I think most teams also probably know that pivoting to a marquee FA signing isn't a realistic move for us so they're in a better position to play hardball when it comes to trade negotiations. 

[Greg Pappas]

22 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

In theory it makes sense, but in reality I think it's a flawed strategy. Mostly because of the rarity of prospect for prospect trades and the fact that teams seem to value young pitching more than they value young hitting. So in essence if you take that approach you're paying more than if you would have just taken a more balanced approach to drafting hitters and pitchers. 

I wasn't looking at this as their solo strategy, but more of an alternate way of pitching acquisition.  As I said in my post, it is rare and also teams with pitching prospects typically want them for themselves, making it a tough thing to pull off. 

Drafting pitchers and hitters equally may not be the best way to go about it, as hitters are statistically the more likely group to be successful MLers.  I believe that drafting philosophy has been on display thus far in Elias and Sig's tenure to great success, but get where you're coming from. It's tough to know whether Elias/Sig are looking to change up and go heavier with pitching, but it would be a boost to the system if they went pitching heavy this upcoming draft... especially with pick 22, 31, and 34.

Also, I'd disagree that pitching prospects are more valuable than hitting prospects, but there may be teams that view it that way philosophically or perhaps on a case by case basis..  Hard to know for sure.  Regardless, to your point, it's not cheap acquiring pitching, whether they're minor leaguers or major leaguers.

An example of such a prospect trade might be Colton Cowser for Mick Abel.  Cowser may be the higher ranked prospect, but the deal would seem about right overall.  Whether either team would do it is debatable, however.

Edited January 22 by Greg Pappas