ZiPS top 100 prospects (Mayo 7th)

[Frobby]

I almost missed the fact that former O’s farmhand Darell Hernaiz was no. 90 on the ZiPS list.   

[scarey1999]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I almost missed the fact that former O’s farmhand Darell Hernaiz was no. 90 on the ZiPS list.   

He may get a shot out of the gate with the A’s this season with a good spring. I’ll be pulling for him. 

[sportsfan8703]

Two things,

It’s good for us for Hernaiz to perform well and get hype because it will make our prospects more valuable. 

We probably underrate Fabian a little because of the K’s and the struggles at Bowie. EBJ and Fabian could form a heck of a CF platoon for years. Imagine finishing close games up with both of them in the OF for defense. 

[Tony-OH]

On 2/16/2024 at 10:19 AM, Frobby said:

I’m fascinated to know what in his profile caused ZiPS to rank him so highly.   Does it think he can cut down his whiff rate, or does it think he can succeed despite a very high whiff rate?   

Me too. A 37.5% K rate in AA for a 23-year old is a pretty big red flag for me. Doesn't mean he doesn't have other attributes that makes him interesting which is why he's still in my top 30, but yeah, he's got more questions than answers at this point.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Fabian feels similar to EBJ in that it’s just the one very big question with his profile. Completely different questions of course, but they both check the defense & walks boxes and Fabian has the power and EBJ has the contact. I feel a lot better about EBJ’s chances of tapping into a sufficient amount of power than I do about Fabian reaching a sufficient level of contact, but it helps that Fabian is RH and EBJ is LH.  Easy to envision them being great complements to each other down the road if they can both answer those questions.

They are probably the players I’m most interested in tracking this year, because they’re good test cases for the Orioles development process, but also because IMO  they’re the only true CF prospects we have right now who could/should be ready by the time Mullins is a FA. CF is pretty much the only spot on the field we don’t otherwise have a ton of options at for the next ~6+ years. 

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Fabian feels similar to EBJ in that it’s just the one very big question with his profile. Completely different questions of course, but they both check the defense & walks boxes and Fabian has the power and EBJ has the contact. I feel a lot better about EBJ’s chances of tapping into a sufficient amount of power than I do about Fabian reaching a sufficient level of contact, but it helps that Fabian is RH and EBJ is LH.  Easy to envision them being great complements to each other down the road if they can both answer those questions.

They are probably the players I’m most interested in tracking this year, because they’re good test cases for the Orioles development process, but also because IMO  they’re the only true CF prospects we have right now who could/should be ready by the time Mullins is a FA. CF is pretty much the only spot on the field we don’t otherwise have a ton of options at for the next ~6+ years. 

This year will be interesting to follow the 2023 draftees.   On draft day it was said that all of Bradfield, Etzel, Josenberger, Cunningham, and Horvath COULD play CF.   Now, if they are all at Aberdeen, clearly, Bradfield will get most of the CF reps but I imagine one or two of the others might emerge as a legit CF prospect as well.   

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Fabian feels similar to EBJ in that it’s just the one very big question with his profile. Completely different questions of course, but they both check the defense & walks boxes and Fabian has the power and EBJ has the contact. I feel a lot better about EBJ’s chances of tapping into a sufficient amount of power than I do about Fabian reaching a sufficient level of contact, but it helps that Fabian is RH and EBJ is LH.  Easy to envision them being great complements to each other down the road if they can both answer those questions.

They are probably the players I’m most interested in tracking this year, because they’re good test cases for the Orioles development process, but also because IMO  they’re the only true CF prospects we have right now who could/should be ready by the time Mullins is a FA. CF is pretty much the only spot on the field we don’t otherwise have a ton of options at for the next ~6+ years. 

Interestingly, Eric Longenhagen commented in his chat: “did film work on [Fabian’s] defense, which isn't CF fit for me.”   That’s surprising to hear, and I don’t always find Longenhagen’s defensive takes to be accurate.   Still, it’s the first time I’ve heard anyone raise a question as to whether Fabian could handle CF well.   If true, it knocks Fabian way down the list.  

I think in any event, Bradfield is the rangier CF, and I trust contact guys to add power a lot more than I trust power guys to improve contact.   Fabian does have a much better arm and obviously more power, but I think Bradfield’s ceiling and floor are both higher than Fabian’s.  
 

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Interestingly, Eric Longenhagen commented in his chat: “did film work on [Fabian’s] defense, which isn't CF fit for me.”   That’s surprising to hear, and I don’t always find Longenhagen’s defensive takes to be accurate.   Still, it’s the first time I’ve heard anyone raise a question as to whether Fabian could handle CF well.   If true, it knocks Fabian way down the list.  

I think in any event, Bradfield is the rangier CF, and I trust contact guys to add power a lot more than I trust power guys to improve contact.   Fabian does have a much better arm and obviously more power, but I think Bradfield’s ceiling and floor are both higher than Fabian’s.  
 

What kind of minor league film besides milb.tv is available to Longerhagen?   I would say that outfield defense, watching the reaction and jump, are things needed to be seen in person unless Longerhagen has access to split screen, focus on the defender, etc.    Without seeing one other evaluator question Fabian’s defense I’ll just ignore it for now, especially considering what he has said about Westburg and continues to say.  Longerhagen is on an island on both players.

[CaptainRedbeard]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

Interestingly, Eric Longenhagen commented in his chat: “did film work on [Fabian’s] defense, which isn't CF fit for me.”   That’s surprising to hear, and I don’t always find Longenhagen’s defensive takes to be accurate.   Still, it’s the first time I’ve heard anyone raise a question as to whether Fabian could handle CF well.   If true, it knocks Fabian way down the list.  

I think in any event, Bradfield is the rangier CF, and I trust contact guys to add power a lot more than I trust power guys to improve contact.   Fabian does have a much better arm and obviously more power, but I think Bradfield’s ceiling and floor are both higher than Fabian’s.  
 

I did see that from Longenhagen, but after seeing him also double down on Westburg still being a defensive liability that really made me put an asterisk on any of his defensive evaluations when he’s all on his own with his opinion. If he said he thought Westburg improved but was still no better than average, that would be one thing, but the player we saw at the MLB level last year was not at all what Longenhagen has described in the past and all of the statistics support that. 

Every other prior evaluation of Fabian that I’ve seen was that he was a plus defensive CF so I’m taking the latest from Longenhagen with a grain of salt until I see others join him in that opinion. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

6 hours ago, RZNJ said:

This year will be interesting to follow the 2023 draftees.   On draft day it was said that all of Bradfield, Etzel, Josenberger, Cunningham, and Horvath COULD play CF.   Now, if they are all at Aberdeen, clearly, Bradfield will get most of the CF reps but I imagine one or two of the others might emerge as a legit CF prospect as well.   

Agreed, although it sounded more like Horvath and Cunningham fall into the Beavers category of good athletes and potential plus corner OF, but highly unlikely to stick in CF. Something like a cut below Cowser, who still is not likely to stick in CF himself.  

Etzel and Josenberger could emerge as CF options, although they were not the same level of prospect as Fabian on draft day and Fabian did very well before AA. But their defensive profiles were potential CF fits, that’s true, and will definitely be keeping a close eye on them too. Etzel in particular with how good he was in his brief look last year.

The other is Braylin Tavera, but he’s still so far away he’d need a huge breakout to be potentially be an option right after Mullins. In all likelihood in 2026 we’ll need one of the other guys or will be looking outside the organization.

[Just Regular]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

What kind of minor league film besides milb.tv is available to Longerhagen?   I would say that outfield defense, watching the reaction and jump, are things needed to be seen in person unless Longerhagen has access to split screen, focus on the defender, etc.    Without seeing one other evaluator question Fabian’s defense I’ll just ignore it for now, especially considering what he has said about Westburg and continues to say.  Longerhagen is on an island on both players.

He actually presented on this during AFL in November.     Fangraphs sprung for a top of the scale Synergy Sports membership for him - he can kind of just click around and get clips of guys fielding ground balls from winter league games 2 nights ago.

I don't know whether Synergy only markets to baseball-y organizations or if any given consumer for an agreed upon price can access them slicing and dicing content for convenience.

[RZNJ]

4 hours ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Agreed, although it sounded more like Horvath and Cunningham fall into the Beavers category of good athletes and potential plus corner OF, but highly unlikely to stick in CF. Something like a cut below Cowser, who still is not likely to stick in CF himself.  

Etzel and Josenberger could emerge as CF options, although they were not the same level of prospect as Fabian on draft day and Fabian did very well before AA. But their defensive profiles were potential CF fits, that’s true, and will definitely be keeping a close eye on them too. Etzel in particular with how good he was in his brief look last year.

The other is Braylin Tavera, but he’s still so far away he’d need a huge breakout to be potentially be an option right after Mullins. In all likelihood in 2026 we’ll need one of the other guys or will be looking outside the organization.

Cunninghams pre draft write up in BA.

“He has a chance to be an above-average defender in center field with solid arm strength. If he hits Cunningham could be an impact player, but there’s plenty of risk with his pure hit tool.“

That’s a bit better than Cowsers pre draft write up.

“Cowser is a plus runner who takes direct routes although his reads sometimes are a little slower than ideal. He shows an above-average arm when he lets loose and does a good job of getting rid of the ball quickly. He should be able to stay in center field at least for a few years, and maybe longer than that depending on how his body matures.”

Horvath is probably the least likely CF capable.  He played mostly RF his junior year but he’s described as a plus athlete with plus speed with a plus arm.  He has very little experience in CF.

 

[CaptainRedbeard]

45 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Cunninghams pre draft write up in BA.

“He has a chance to be an above-average defender in center field with solid arm strength. If he hits Cunningham could be an impact player, but there’s plenty of risk with his pure hit tool.“

That’s a bit better than Cowsers pre draft write up.

“Cowser is a plus runner who takes direct routes although his reads sometimes are a little slower than ideal. He shows an above-average arm when he lets loose and does a good job of getting rid of the ball quickly. He should be able to stay in center field at least for a few years, and maybe longer than that depending on how his body matures.”

Horvath is probably the least likely CF capable.  He played mostly RF his junior year but he’s described as a plus athlete with plus speed with a plus arm.  He has very little experience in CF.

 

Wow, nice. That’s better than I remembered seeing. Would be great if he could actually play CF. I remember Ciolek calling him a “tool shed” which is an A+ label, so I hope he pans out and that sticks around. Seems like a very high upside guy. 

[scarey1999]

Mayo looked great at 3rd today defensively after he entered the game. Made a nice play on a deep, bounding grounder, then fired a rocket to 2nd base to cut down the lead runner.

Also, if you’re looking at the box score and think man he hit a double too…awesome!   Well, that was definitely a FL sunshine, spring training double.  It was a routine-ish pop up behind 3rd that’s most likely caught during the regular season in a ML game. 

[emmett16]

On 2/23/2024 at 5:23 PM, Just Regular said:

He actually presented on this during AFL in November.     Fangraphs sprung for a top of the scale Synergy Sports membership for him - he can kind of just click around and get clips of guys fielding ground balls from winter league games 2 nights ago.

I don't know whether Synergy only markets to baseball-y organizations or if any given consumer for an agreed upon price can access them slicing and dicing content for convenience.

 

On 2/23/2024 at 1:42 PM, RZNJ said:

What kind of minor league film besides milb.tv is available to Longerhagen?   I would say that outfield defense, watching the reaction and jump, are things needed to be seen in person unless Longerhagen has access to split screen, focus on the defender, etc.    Without seeing one other evaluator question Fabian’s defense I’ll just ignore it for now, especially considering what he has said about Westburg and continues to say.  Longerhagen is on an island on both players.

Don't almost all minor league stadiums (or at least a large portion) have trackman or hawkeye tech?  If so, data on jumps, routes, and how quick you get rid of the ball would be easily captured and sorted.