ZiPS top 100 prospects (Mayo 7th)

[Frobby]

Unlike other lists, the ZiPS lists includes the Japanese professionals who are joining MLB.   Yamamoto therefore outranks Jackson Holliday.

2. Holliday 

7. Mayo

27: Basallo

61. Fabian

86. Kjerstad

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-2024-top-100-prospects/

 

[ChuckS]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Unlike other lists, the ZiPS lists includes the Japanese professionals who are joining MLB.   Yamamoto therefore outranks Jackson Holliday.

2. Holliday 

7. Mayo

27: Basallo

61. Fabian

86. Kjerstad

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-2024-top-100-prospects/

 

Fabian at 61 is wild.  Too many red flags there. I wonder if he will even make it as a fourth outfielder. 

[Frobby]

Orioles’ prospect comments:

“Jackson Holliday is terrific, of course; if he doesn’t work out in the majors, it’ll be the most wrong the computers and scouts have ever been.”

“ZiPS thinks Mayo will peak with an OPS+ in the 115-125 range and contribute above-average defense at third.”

“Basallo! After a monster season that saw him get some time at Double-A Bowie while still a teenager, Samuel Basallo has shot up the rankings to be the top catcher on the list. The overall ranking is only lower than FanGraphs’ because, well, catchers sometimes have weird, unpredictable developmental patterns, so ZiPS isn’t quite as confident as it would be if he were the same player but at shortstop.”

 

 

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

Fabian at 61 is wild.  Too many red flags there. I wonder if he will even make it as a fourth outfielder. 

I’m fascinated to know what in his profile caused ZiPS to rank him so highly.   Does it think he can cut down his whiff rate, or does it think he can succeed despite a very high whiff rate?   

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I’m fascinated to know what in his profile caused ZiPS to rank him so highly.   Does it think he can cut down his whiff rate, or does it think he can succeed despite a very high whiff rate?   

Well, I think part of it is the great defense he apparently has at a premium Position. 

His power is another.

Mateo was worth 3.3 WAR in 2022 because of great defense at a key position.  
 

 

Edited February 16 by Sports Guy

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

“Jackson Holliday is terrific, of course; if he doesn’t work out in the majors, it’ll be the most wrong the computers and scouts have ever been.”

Jackson Holliday took batting practice this morning...  There were no survivors.  

[LTO's]

32 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Jackson Holliday took batting practice this morning...  There were no survivors.  

Best swing I've seen from an Orioles prospect in my lifetime.  

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, I think part of it is the great defense he apparently has at a premium Position. 

His power is another.

Mateo was worth 3.3 WAR in 2022 because of great defense at a key position.  
 

 

There are a lot of very good defensive CFs roaming the minor leagues.  Fabian’s not even the best one in our own system (Bradfield).   So, it seems to me that ZiPS’s analytics must indicate that Fabian stands a decent chance to be a solid offensive performer in addition to playing good defense.  

[Just Regular]

I especially enjoy Fabian being 2 spots ahead of Ethan Salas as a snapshot of how the models can only do what they do with the inputs they get.

Mayo far eclipsing Basallo because he's generated age 19-21 data an Orioles-only manifestation of the same kind of thing.

 

[CaptainRedbeard]

ZiPS and Steamer are pretty aligned on the BB and K rates for Fabian’s 2024 projections - 10% BB rate and 34% K rate. That seems quite positive given his K rate at AA was almost 38%, but it was much better at A+ and he was only 22 last year. 

That still only comes out to about .205/.295/.360 line, so that’s not great. About 80-85 wRC+, which is about “acceptable CF level” offense. 

However, ZiPS must love his defense because that adds up to a 2.0 fWAR 2024 season over 530 PA. And that’s at age 23, so I can see how that comes out in the top 100 prospect range.

He won’t actually play much (if at all) at the MLB level this year unless he has a huge year or injuries go horribly wrong, but it does make you feel a bit better about his chances of becoming that nice complimentary RH 4th OF / backup CF, perhaps even as soon as 2025. Must be decent historical statistical precedent for a guy like this keeping his K rate just enough in check. 

[RZNJ]

Here’s to hoping Fabian can dial the K rate back to Aberdeen levels, about 25%.   He quietly had a 24/31 season.  Add in the plus CF defense and he could be added into the future CF conversation.

I’ve watched his 2023 highlights and he seems to be right on some breaking stuff.   Is it mostly chase?   Would love to know his chase rates, in zone contact %, etc.

[btdart20]

Fabian is backwards.  Lefty arm and righty bat.  The RHH piece may help his case over the next couple of years.

[Frobby]

39 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Here’s to hoping Fabian can dial the K rate back to Aberdeen levels, about 25%.   He quietly had a 24/31 season.  Add in the plus CF defense and he could be added into the future CF conversation.

I’ve watched his 2023 highlights and he seems to be right on some breaking stuff.   Is it mostly chase?   Would love to know his chase rates, in zone contact %, etc.

From what I’ve heard, it’s mostly swing and miss within the zone.  Think Mark Reynolds.   But Mark Reynolds as a good defensive CF would be a very good player.  

[Say O!]

8 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Fabian is backwards.  Lefty arm and righty bat.  The RHH piece may help his case over the next couple of years.

Given how much Os value handedness matchups, Fabian as 4th OF would be huge complement to LHH dominant pipeline of Cowser, Bradfield, Kjerstad, Beavers.

[AnythingO's]

Wow, Cowser at 170 by Zips and unranked by Fangraphs. Kjerstad 86 by Zips but 24 by Fangraphs. Fabian above both. Then there is Ortiz unranked at either SS or 2B by Zips. That's a lot to chew on vs our general opinion of our prospects.

Edited February 17 by AnythingO's
correction