Just how *bad* was Derek Jeter's defense?

[Moose Milligan]

I don't subscribe to a lot of things, but I do subscribe to Joe Posnanski's Substack.  Highly recommended.

Anyway, I won't post it all here, just the key nugs.

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And, as Brandon undoubtedly knew, I have spent way too much time thinking about this—way more time than I should spend thinking about a graphic from a Jeter fan that misspells Cal Ripken’s name. But I believe there is a sense, one I believe will grow the longer the years go on, that Derek Jeter was a good defensive shortstop. And he most certainly was not. I don’t know if he was the worst every-day defensive shortstop in baseball history, as the numbers suggest, but he was much closer to that than a good defensive shortstop, and so I cannot help but try to think of a simple chart to counter this nonsense.

And, as it so happens, I have thought up one.

You all probably know what “range factor” is. It’s a Bill James creation, and I like it because it offers no judgment. To calculate range factor, you simply add up putouts and assists and divide it by games played. That simple. If a shortstop makes 35 putouts and assists in a seven-game week, he has a range factor of 5 for that span. Nobody’s asking how many plays he SHOULD have made or how many plays he MIGHT have made. It’s just simple math.

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So here’s something cool: You can use the player’s range factor to calculate the number of plays made. Then you can use the league-average range factor to calculate the number of plays an average shortstop would have made in the same number of innings. Fun, right? Let’s just pick Andrelton Simmons as an example.

Simmons played 10,338 innings and had a range factor of 4.46. That means he made 5,123 plays over his career.

The league-average range faector over his career is 4.12. That means the average shortstop would make 4,733 plays over the same time period.

Take Simmons’ plays, subtract the average shortstop plays, voila, you see that Simmons made 390 more plays than the average shortstop might have made.

Obviously, it’s just a projection and somewhat imperfect… but what statistic isn’t? We’ll call these PAA—Plays Above Average—and Simmons, as you would expect, has one of the highest totals per nine-inning totals in baseball history. Specifically, he has the sixth-highest, but we’ll get to that. You might be surprised to see who is at number one when you break it down that way.

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But before we get there, let’s look at raw numbers. Here are the five shortstops with the most PAA in baseball history:

1. Ozzie Smith, 1,065

2. Dave Bancroft, 768

3. Rabbit Maranville, 611

4. Troy Tulowitzki, 559

5. Dick Bartell, 540

Yeah, no surprise at the top. It’s a little bit comical to me whenever I hear anybody—ANYBODY—compared directly to Ozzie Smith as a defensive shortstop. I tend to be one of those people who believes players are getting better, and I try not to get stuck thinking that some player I idolized can never been surpassed. But Ozzie was a unicorn in the truest sense of the word. He was not only the most dazzling defender who ever lived, he was also the most productive. He was Barry Sanders and Emmitt Smith COMBINED.

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Other shortstops who are more or less in their league defensively—Roy McMillan (plus-509), Jack Wilson (plus-505), Luis Aparicio (plus-448), Joe Tinker (plus-442) and so on. Mark Belanger (plus-392).

And at the bottom, well, here you go:

1. Jimmy Rollins, minus-434

2. Larry Bowa, minus-404

3. Jose Reyes, minus-346

4. Leo Cardenas, minus-302

5. Edgar Renteria, minus-300

Those five kind of stand apart defensively. I hate to see Rollins there, but the numbers are the numbers. Rollins’ range fell off a lot after he turned 30, as tends to happen to most shortstops, but in truth he never had great range. There’s more to defense than just range factor, of course—this is simple, back-of-the-envelope math—and by more advanced numbers, Rollins was a very good defensive shortstop in his prime.

So, there you have it… oh, wait, I forgot someone.

Derek Jeter, minus-1,213 PAA.

Yeah, that’s right. Derek Jeter made TWELVE HUNDRED FEWER PLAYS than the league-average shortstop would be projected to make. There’s nobody else in his universe. That’s so much worse than any other shortstop in baseball history, it’s hard to even compute. Maybe it will make sense when you put together the same list of shortstops as in the above chart:

Career Plays Above Average

Ozzie Smith (1,065)
Luis Aparicio (448)
Robin Yount (331)
Cal Ripken Jr. (90)
Derek Jeter (minus-1,216)

Whew. Look, there are certainly other ways to look at this. Maybe, like, with Rollins, you can look at more advanced metrics like Baseball-Reference’s RField—defensive runs above average

Ozzie Smith (239)
Cal Ripken (181)
Luis Aparicio (149)
Robin Yount (25)
Derek Jeter (minus-253)

OK, that doesn’t help. Look, just say that Derek Jeter was a great hitter. Say he was a great leader. Say that the Yankees were willing to accept his limited range in order to get his exquisite baseball awareness and sure-handedness. But Derek Jeter was a well-below-average defensive shortstop, and no charts or absurd Gold Gloves will change that.

And yes, I blame you, Brandon McCarthy, for making me do all this.

As long as we’re here, though, I will use PAA to show you the top 10 shortstops per nine innings:

1. Troy Tulowitzki, .46 better than average

2. Ozzie Smith, .44

3. Jack Wilson, .42

4. Dave Bancroft, .42

5. Rick Burleson, .36

6. Andrelton Simmons, .34

7. Dick Bartell, .33

8. Rafael Furcal, .31

9. Tim Foli, .30

10. Rabbit Maranville, .29

 

[Sports Guy]

But his instincts!!!

[Can_of_corn]

What I don't like about Range Factor is you can be penalized by having highly profient players playing along side of you.  

I don't think that was the case with Jeter.

[Just Regular]

Please oh please in the next 7-14 years let Jackson Holliday attain similar batting and postseason career achievements while playing defense well.

Baseball gods, you maybe owe us a little for that deep flyout that started a legend.

Tony Tarasco was kind of good at defense, and I don't know why he would have just been standing there if he would have needed to jump to take something away.   The can of corn only hung in the air about 26 seconds (0/30).

The Orioles won Game 2 at Yankee anyway, and I've definitely never wondered stuff like whether Mike Mussina would have schooled Maddux/Glavine, etc. in the '96 World Series if Baltimore could have not blown coming back to OPACY up 2-0, if Armando Benitez might be closer to the Hall of Fame, or how much it may have trimmed back the Core Four's extraordinary achievements.

The Orioles competitors from there did still include weak sauce like Rocky Coppinger pitching against Mariano Rivera, but you never know.

After 1996, Cal never hit 20 HR again. (he was excellent in October 1997)

[Frobby]

While its undeniable that Jeter was a poor defensive SS, the plays above average stat used here, based on range factor, is a pretty poor stat.   Chances depend a great deal on the strikeout and ground ball tendencies and handedness of the pitchers, and the amount of foul territory at the ballpark.  The more modern stats take all that into account.  And they still show that Jeter was awful.  

[bobmc]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

While its undeniable that Jeter was a poor defensive SS, the plays above average stat used here, based on range factor, is a pretty poor stat.   Chances depend a great deal on the strikeout and ground ball tendencies and handedness of the pitchers, and the amount of foul territory at the ballpark.  The more modern stats take all that into account.  And they still show that Jeter was awful.  

How does Volpe stack up thus far?

[Spy Fox]

11 minutes ago, bobmc said:

How does Volpe stack up thus far?

He did win the Gold Glove last year. Jeter won a few of those too, but I trust today's voters a bit more than those from that time. 

Not every metric was this glowing on Volpe, but his 2.5 dWAR on Baseball Ref was better than any Jeter ever produced. Jeter only posted positive dWAR four times out of 20 seasons, which seems pretty alarming for a shortstop.

[Just Regular]

We're still not 2 years past the time the prospecty people on the interwebs had Anthony Volpe far far ahead of Gunnar Henderson.

During 2022's breakout, a yardstick was Gunnar closing in then zooming past Volpe on mid-season and end of season lists.

Volpe's rookie year had flaws but he could still be an important impact player in the AL East races to come.    His flat swing path stories this spring are interesting - for me, they are basically undoing the uppercut he dominated the Minors with and that the Orioles have been trying to drill into Connor Norby since East Carolina.

Volpe got his 20 HR but hit .209.     They can't give him leadoff coming off that, but I don't think it takes more than a month of Volpe being better to go up top unless DJ LeMahieu really bounces back.

[Frobby]

Prediction: Joey Ortiz > Volpe.  

[Gurgi]

Where would of Jeter been better at?  Second?  RF?   

[Moose Milligan]

11 hours ago, Gurgi said:

Where would have Jeter been better at?  Second?  RF?   

1B

[jabba72]

Definitely a mystery why the Yankees decided to keep playing him there. 

[Just Regular]

Jeter's .130 career ISO, and Robinson Cano's .187 career ISO are some interesting early yardsticks following the start of Jackson Holliday's career.

Will Holliday have it in him to out-slug Cano over the long run?

[btdart20]

6 hours ago, Just Regular said:

Jeter's .130 career ISO, and Robinson Cano's .187 career ISO are some interesting early yardsticks following the start of Jackson Holliday's career.

Will Holliday have it in him to out-slug Cano over the long run?

Both are plot points on the Piazza Scale where gloves can be compromised if the stick hits enough.  

[Frobby]

On 3/9/2024 at 12:12 PM, Just Regular said:

Jeter's .130 career ISO, and Robinson Cano's .187 career ISO are some interesting early yardsticks following the start of Jackson Holliday's career.

Will Holliday have it in him to out-slug Cano over the long run?

I doubt it.  But I like his odds to top Cano’s OBP.