Corbin Burnes 2024

[Hallas]

7 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

He missed 7 bats last night. A guy with his stuff throws 99 pitches and misses just 7 bats, against a high K team?  Thats a really crazy stat to me.

 

Compared to his first couple starts where he K'd everyone he's not missing as many bats but he's also not getting hit hard.  His first 3 starts he had a K rate of 28, but an average EV of 90.3 with a 13 degree LA.  Since then he's had a K rate of 23, but his average EV allowed has dropped to 85.9 with an 8 degree LA.  As a result his xwOBA and xERA are really good.

 

EV allowed is a weird stat where medium sized samples of 40-100 batted balls is actually more predictive than large samples, but that does make it valuable in looking at splits.

 

The whiff/K rates are definitely worth taking a look at, but as long as he's not walking anyone and giving up 85 mph grounders and weak flies when he does give up contact, it's definitely not a serious concern.

 

I also wonder if he's intentionally pitching to contact because he can get away with it, and because he is trying to keep his pitch count manageable rather than give the ball up to our shaky bullpen.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Hallas said:

 

Compared to his first couple starts where he K'd everyone he's not missing as many bats but he's also not getting hit hard.  His first 3 starts he had a K rate of 28, but an average EV of 90.3 with a 13 degree LA.  Since then he's had a K rate of 23, but his average EV allowed has dropped to 85.9 with an 8 degree LA.  As a result his xwOBA and xERA are really good.

 

EV allowed is a weird stat where medium sized samples of 40-100 batted balls is actually more predictive than large samples, but that does make it valuable in looking at splits.

 

The whiff/K rates are definitely worth taking a look at, but as long as he's not walking anyone and giving up 85 mph grounders and weak flies when he does give up contact, it's definitely not a serious concern.

 

I also wonder if he's intentionally pitching to contact because he can get away with it, and because he is trying to keep his pitch count manageable rather than give the ball up to our shaky bullpen.

My concern isn’t now as much as it is in the playoffs. I don’t want some pitch to contact version of Burnes out there.

Im not saying that will happen and I don’t think it will happen but there have been too many low Ks, low missed bats starts for me early on…I don’t want that to become a trend all season long and into October.

[dystopia]

[Hallas]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

My concern isn’t now as much as it is in the playoffs. I don’t want some pitch to contact version of Burnes out there.

Im not saying that will happen and I don’t think it will happen but there have been too many low Ks, low missed bats starts for me early on…I don’t want that to become a trend all season long and into October.

Yeah, I get that.  His next 3 starts are going to be against the Rays, Phillies, and Yankees.  The second 2 should be pretty telling regarding how he performs against better bats, or whether he has another gear he can turn on.

 

In general I feel like his breaking pitches have been a little wild and it's causing him to miss out on some swings and misses.  Hopefully he finds his curveball at some point during the season.

 

If he finds his curveball he could get a no-hitter.  His cutter command has been unbelievable.

[baltfan]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

My concern isn’t now as much as it is in the playoffs. I don’t want some pitch to contact version of Burnes out there.

Im not saying that will happen and I don’t think it will happen but there have been too many low Ks, low missed bats starts for me early on…I don’t want that to become a trend all season long and into October.

His xERA is 2.73.  His FIP is 3.16.  Not everyone can be as good as Jack Flaherty.    I am not sure what more you could want of him.  He is a very smart pitcher who has an obvious plan.  Listen to any interview with him and it's obvious that he has a plan. I am sure all of this is by design in conjunction with the Orioles.

On Flaherty, I wonder if he is taking what the Orioles worked on with him and implementing it.   Maybe the Orioles should have had the chutzpah to stick with him.

[Sports Guy]

26 minutes ago, baltfan said:

His xERA is 2.73.  His FIP is 3.16.  Not everyone can be as good as Jack Flaherty.    I am not sure what more you could want of him.  He is a very smart pitcher who has an obvious plan.  Listen to any interview with him and it's obvious that he has a plan. I am sure all of this is by design in conjunction with the Orioles.

On Flaherty, I wonder if he is taking what the Orioles worked on with him and implementing it.   Maybe the Orioles should have had the chutzpah to stick with him.

I think it’s pretty clear what I want out of him.  I want the dominant starter that misses bats and gets lots of Ks.

That’s usually the best way to get outs in the playoffs.  Pitching to contact is not normally what you want, especially when you face the best lineups.

[Malike]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

I think it’s pretty clear what I want out of him.  I want the dominant starter that misses bats and gets lots of Ks.

That’s usually the best way to get outs in the playoffs.  Pitching to contact is not normally what you want, especially when you face the best lineups.

I don't think the 2 Jays starts are a great barometer, they strike out less than anyone in the league and Burnes throws a lot of strikes. They never really hurt him, but they don't strike out.

[Just Regular]

If I filter xwOBA (yielded by pitcher) on Savant this afternoon to 200 batted ball events to get it to the highest volume starting pitchers, it thinks Corbin Burnes is 1st of 30 in 2024 MLB.

Down at 150, he's 7th of 111.

[Just Regular]

49 minutes ago, baltfan said:

On Flaherty, I wonder if he is taking what the Orioles worked on with him and implementing it.   Maybe the Orioles should have had the chutzpah to stick with him.

I happened to see Tigers GM Scott Harris on MLB Now about a week ago, and he seemed to pimp it out POBO style describing "the latent talent" his people thought they could unlock.

We get more than our 54% here in this era, but nobody gets 100%.

Since that interview they've also had to demote their 1-1 Spencer Torkelson years into his career, so there is that.

Trade deadlines so far, Jack Flaherty is the one starter Elias has beaten the competition on.

[baltfan]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I think it’s pretty clear what I want out of him.  I want the dominant starter that misses bats and gets lots of Ks.

That’s usually the best way to get outs in the playoffs.  Pitching to contact is not normally what you want, especially when you face the best lineups.

Aren’t you generalizing a bit?  Sure Maddux wasn’t great in the playoffs but Kershaw hasn’t been either and he strikes out tons of guys.  Pedro struck out tons and was not great in the playoffs.  Palmer was good in the playoffs and wasn’t a strike out guy. Glavine was a good playoffs pitcher.  Seems the most important hung is to be capable of striking out guys if necessary.  Burnes seems to still have that ability. 

[baltfan]

1 hour ago, Just Regular said:

I happened to see Tigers GM Scott Harris on MLB Now about a week ago, and he seemed to pimp it out POBO style describing "the latent talent" his people thought they could unlock.

We get more than our 54% here in this era, but nobody gets 100%.

Since that interview they've also had to demote their 1-1 Spencer Torkelson years into his career, so there is that.

Trade deadlines so far, Jack Flaherty is the one starter Elias has beaten the competition on.

If he recognized the latent talent he was stupid to only sign him to a one year deal. 

[yark14]

With the uncertainty of Bradish, I see a lot of people calling for signing Burnes to an extension no matter what the cost - I'd have no problem with that (it's not my money).  However, it COULD be in the O's best interest to let him test the market.  With the sheer number of pitchers going down with UCL injuries, teams might be afraid to risk $300mm on an arm.  Might not be as many bidding wars as in the past.

[dystopia]

2 hours ago, Malike said:

I don't think the 2 Jays starts are a great barometer, they strike out less than anyone in the league and Burnes throws a lot of strikes. They never really hurt him, but they don't strike out.

Huh, you’d think the Jays would be near the top of the league in runs scored then, using SG logic. 

[Sports Guy]

35 minutes ago, baltfan said:

Aren’t you generalizing a bit?  Sure Maddux wasn’t great in the playoffs but Kershaw hasn’t been either and he strikes out tons of guys.  Pedro struck out tons and was not great in the playoffs.  Palmer was good in the playoffs and wasn’t a strike out guy. Glavine was a good playoffs pitcher.  Seems the most important hung is to be capable of striking out guys if necessary.  Burnes seems to still have that ability. 

No im not and citing a few examples here and there doesn’t change simple math and what usually works.

[baltfan]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No im not and citing a few examples here and there doesn’t change simple math and what usually works.

Agreed I just cited a few examples.  Do you have something more concrete?