Colton Cowser 2024

[waroriole]

5 hours ago, Malike said:

I'd rather Cowser in LF with Cedric in CF.

Same. At least Ced provides defensive value. Struggling to understand how Hays or Santander are helping. 

[lfallo1]

8 hours ago, Malike said:

I'd rather Cowser in LF with Cedric in CF.

Yea Ced is still the guy in the OF without a clear "replacement" and he still has value in the field.  Hayes and AS can and should see their PT slashed.  Regardless, we can't keep trotting out the black hole of Santander-Hayes-Mullins in the middle of the lineup.

[Just Regular]

Cowser's still outrunning the field by OAA as MLB's most valuable defensive non-centerfielder.

The Rockies of all teams finally tagged Mason Miller, and Evan Carter has been having the official Cedric Mullins getting pinch hit for experience.

I think Elias is feeling at least fair to middlin' on his horse in the RoY race - certainly today Cowser seems just about inked as an everyday guy, and counting stats matter for WAR contests.

[Aristotelian]

10 minutes ago, lfallo1 said:

Yea Ced is still the guy in the OF without a clear "replacement" and he still has value in the field.  Hayes and AS can and should see their PT slashed.  Regardless, we can't keep trotting out the black hole of Santander-Hayes-Mullins in the middle of the lineup.

Santander has 101 OPS+. Not what you want from a defensively challenged RF but far from black hole in the current environment. Of course Mullins and Hays are doing their part to drag down the environment and make Santander look good.

[Tony-OH]

On 5/18/2024 at 9:38 AM, wildcard said:

There seems to be a feeling that Cowser will be merely adequate in center.    I just don't know about that.   

Have we seen cases where Cowser playing center did not get to a balls this season that Mullins would have? Have we seen Cowser not make plays in center this season that he should have made?

He seems pretty solid in center most of the time to me.   I am just not sure about the difficult  plays.

It's kind of like Westburg and Urias at 3B.   Urias is very good, even GG caliber at 3B but he does not hit well.   Westburg makes good plays at 3B.  Maybe not quite as good as Urias but Westburg's offense is so much better that he is playing over Urias.

Could the same thing happen to Cowser and Mullins?  I have questions but not answers at this point.

 

I've been one that has said he's adequate in CF but better suited for the corners because of his size. Saying that, let's take a look at the numbers from statcast and forget my eyes on approach during the minors.

Cowser has 75 percentile sprint speed on the bases and here's his jump numbers. They are not broken down between LF and CF. Cowser also has 99 percentile arm strength but as we've seen, he's not an accurate thrower.

We know Mullins plays an above average CF and he has 67.7 percentile spring speed on the bases and here's his jump numbers. Mullins also has 49th percentile throwing.

The one stat that jumps out to me is Feet covered which total feet covered against the direct route to the ball in the first three seconds (not relative to average). Mullins gets the edge here by 2 feet. Players run at different speed when tracking flyballs but according to this good but complicated article from fangraphs, burst most correlates to OAA.

Overall though, I don't see any reason Cowser can't play CF based on the numbers we're seeing, but I don't have his number broken down in CF vs LF/RF. He may slow down quicker because of his size, but for now, he's running very well on the go and while he may not get to every ball Cedric will get to, I don't think it's going to be such a downgrade that we'd be pining for Cedric.

So it comes down to this in my opinion, do you want Cedric or Hays's bat in the lineup? I wish Stowers or Kjerstad would be taken into consideration here in LF, but I don't think the Orioles will go that route. 

If Cowser can adequately play CF, and I think he can, that can put Mullins in more of a 4th outfielders role filling in for Hays and Santander, moving Cowser to those positions since he can play all 3. 

Cowser has been impressive defensively this year, even before his catch last night. 

[interloper]

If Mullins isn't going to hit, he can still provide good value (or usefulness, at least) as a 4th OF bench guy with speed and defense.

Right now it's pretty clear that Cowser and Stowers should be starting. 

[Sports Guy]

49 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I've been one that has said he's adequate in CF but better suited for the corners because of his size. Saying that, let's take a look at the numbers from statcast and forget my eyes on approach during the minors.

Cowser has 75 percentile sprint speed on the bases and here's his jump numbers. They are not broken down between LF and CF. Cowser also has 99 percentile arm strength but as we've seen, he's not an accurate thrower.

We know Mullins plays an above average CF and he has 67.7 percentile spring speed on the bases and here's his jump numbers. Mullins also has 49th percentile throwing.

The one stat that jumps out to me is Feet covered which total feet covered against the direct route to the ball in the first three seconds (not relative to average). Mullins gets the edge here by 2 feet. Players run at different speed when tracking flyballs but according to this good but complicated article from fangraphs, burst most correlates to OAA.

Overall though, I don't see any reason Cowser can't play CF based on the numbers we're seeing, but I don't have his number broken down in CF vs LF/RF. He may slow down quicker because of his size, but for now, he's running very well on the go and while he may not get to every ball Cedric will get to, I don't think it's going to be such a downgrade that we'd be pining for Cedric.

So it comes down to this in my opinion, do you want Cedric or Hays's bat in the lineup? I wish Stowers or Kjerstad would be taken into consideration here in LF, but I don't think the Orioles will go that route. 

If Cowser can adequately play CF, and I think he can, that can put Mullins in more of a 4th outfielders role filling in for Hays and Santander, moving Cowser to those positions since he can play all 3. 

Cowser has been impressive defensively this year, even before his catch last night. 

How great is it that these statcast stats are available to us?

The Apple TV broadcast is so great with this stuff. 
 

 

[casadeozo]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

I've been one that has said he's adequate in CF but better suited for the corners because of his size. Saying that, let's take a look at the numbers from statcast and forget my eyes on approach during the minors.

Cowser has 75 percentile sprint speed on the bases and here's his jump numbers. They are not broken down between LF and CF. Cowser also has 99 percentile arm strength but as we've seen, he's not an accurate thrower.

We know Mullins plays an above average CF and he has 67.7 percentile spring speed on the bases and here's his jump numbers. Mullins also has 49th percentile throwing.

The one stat that jumps out to me is Feet covered which total feet covered against the direct route to the ball in the first three seconds (not relative to average). Mullins gets the edge here by 2 feet. Players run at different speed when tracking flyballs but according to this good but complicated article from fangraphs, burst most correlates to OAA.

Overall though, I don't see any reason Cowser can't play CF based on the numbers we're seeing, but I don't have his number broken down in CF vs LF/RF. He may slow down quicker because of his size, but for now, he's running very well on the go and while he may not get to every ball Cedric will get to, I don't think it's going to be such a downgrade that we'd be pining for Cedric.

So it comes down to this in my opinion, do you want Cedric or Hays's bat in the lineup? I wish Stowers or Kjerstad would be taken into consideration here in LF, but I don't think the Orioles will go that route. 

If Cowser can adequately play CF, and I think he can, that can put Mullins in more of a 4th outfielders role filling in for Hays and Santander, moving Cowser to those positions since he can play all 3. 

Cowser has been impressive defensively this year, even before his catch last night. 

It sometimes feels we have a youth movement with a manager stuck in an extreme old school mentality.

I’m still waiting on the explanation of Kjersrads promotion after domination AAA in April, to sit on the bench and return to the minors a few weeks later.

Hyde is just going to go with the veterans until his hand is forced like Cowser after the BOS series.

[wildcard]

Let's not go too crazy about Cowser just yet.   He has potential but his May has not been good offensively so far.    In 25 games and 58 AB he has a 190/314/259/573.   That is right. His slugging pct in May is 259.   He has not hit a homer in May.  The catch was good last night and timely.  But go back and look at it again.  He does not sprint to the ball.  He didn't have to.   The jump and catch were really good but we have seen Mullins make much harder catches.

I am not down on Cowser.   I just see him as a developing rookie player.

Santander has 4 homers and 9 RBI in May.   He is on a pace for 24 HR and 81 RBI for the year.   And he has not gotten hot yet.    His averages are down but his production is in range for a good season. If he gets hot the averages will rise.

Hays coming  off the injured  in May  is 286/304/429/733.  Not great but the best in the O's outfield in his 21 AB.   SSS but I'd rather him have those numbers that not be hitting at all.

Showers is in the Kjerstad role which doesn't play much.

I think Santander should be playing almost everyday with time off for rest.   The other O's outfielders are mix and match which is what Hyde is doing.

Edited May 25 by wildcard

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Let's not go too crazy about Cowser just yet.   He has potential but his May has not been good offensively so far.    In 25 games and 58 AB he has a 190/314/259/573.   That is right. His slugging pct in May is 259.   He has not hit a homer in May.  The catch was good last night and timely.  But go back and look at it again.  He does no sprint to the ball.  He didn't have to.   The jump and catch were really good but we have seen Mullins make much harder catches.

I am not down on Cowser.   I just see him as a developing rookie players.

Santander has 4 homers and 9 RBI in May.   He is on a pace for 24 HR and 81 RBI for the year.   And he has not gotten hot yet.    His averages are down but his production is in range for a good season. If he gets hot the averages will rise.

Hays coming  off the injured  in May  is 286/304/429/733.  Not great but the best in the O's outfield in his 21 AB.   SSS but I'd rather him have those numbers that not be hitting at all.

Showers is in the Kjerstad role which doesn't play much.

I think Santander should be playing almost everyday with time off for rest.   The other O's outfielders are mix and match which is what Hyde is doing.

Cowser has hit the ball well for most of this month.  He has had a lot of bad luck.  He is using all fields and showing power and excellent EV numbers.
 

Despite a “bad month” of May, his statcast numbers are still excellent.  They aren’t still excellent because of a good few stretch in April..not now that he’s playing everyday.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/colton-cowser-681297?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
 

He has as many walks this month as he did in April and he’s had 14 less PA.

He probably has the best at bats on the team with Gunnar being the likely exception to that rule.

[Sports Guy]

He has a 0% HR/FB ratio despite his FB% being roughly the same as it was in April and his LD% is higher.

Now, he also had some unsustainable lucky numbers in April.

Thats how this stuff works. When you are on a tear, you have some lucky numbers and when you are struggling, you have unlucky numbers.

The thing is though, Cowser is still up there with an excellent approach and good at bats, while playing stellar defense.

He's easily the best OFer on the team.

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He has a 0% HR/FB ratio despite his FB% being roughly the same as it was in April and his LD% is higher.

Now, he also had some unsustainable lucky numbers in April.

Thats how this stuff works. When you are on a tear, you have some lucky numbers and when you are struggling, you have unlucky numbers.

The thing is though, Cowser is still up there with an excellent approach and good at bats, while playing stellar defense.

He's easily the best OFer on the team.

HR/FB is not always purely or even mostly a function of luck.  At one point I listed the length of Cowser’s homers and I think at least 4 of the 6 were 400+ feet.   How many 400+ foot fly balls has he hit in May?  He’s hit some balls well, no doubt, but he hasn’t hit anything where it leaves the bat and you think, “there’s a home run.”   

At the same time, in his first 80 PA he had a .439 wOBA and a .390 xwOBA.   Now, after 156 PA (roughly double the earlier marker), he’s at .354 wOBA and .378 xwOBA.   That means that in the last 76 PA, he’s had roughly a .265 wOBA and a .365 xwOBA.  So yeah, you’d call that pretty unlucky.  

In the first 80 PA, he struck out 27 times vs. 8 BB.  In the more recent 76 PA, he’s struck out 18 times and walked 10.   
 

[Tony-OH]

7 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

How great is it that these statcast stats are available to us?

The Apple TV broadcast is so great with this stuff. 
 

 

I just wish I had all the info on the minor leaguers. I love statcast data.

[Bahama O's Fan]

No hits today, but he got a walk and got on base again

[Hallas]

On 5/25/2024 at 7:41 AM, Tony-OH said:

I've been one that has said he's adequate in CF but better suited for the corners because of his size. Saying that, let's take a look at the numbers from statcast and forget my eyes on approach during the minors.

Cowser has 75 percentile sprint speed on the bases and here's his jump numbers. They are not broken down between LF and CF. Cowser also has 99 percentile arm strength but as we've seen, he's not an accurate thrower.

We know Mullins plays an above average CF and he has 67.7 percentile spring speed on the bases and here's his jump numbers. Mullins also has 49th percentile throwing.

The one stat that jumps out to me is Feet covered which total feet covered against the direct route to the ball in the first three seconds (not relative to average). Mullins gets the edge here by 2 feet. Players run at different speed when tracking flyballs but according to this good but complicated article from fangraphs, burst most correlates to OAA.

Overall though, I don't see any reason Cowser can't play CF based on the numbers we're seeing, but I don't have his number broken down in CF vs LF/RF. He may slow down quicker because of his size, but for now, he's running very well on the go and while he may not get to every ball Cedric will get to, I don't think it's going to be such a downgrade that we'd be pining for Cedric.

So it comes down to this in my opinion, do you want Cedric or Hays's bat in the lineup? I wish Stowers or Kjerstad would be taken into consideration here in LF, but I don't think the Orioles will go that route. 

If Cowser can adequately play CF, and I think he can, that can put Mullins in more of a 4th outfielders role filling in for Hays and Santander, moving Cowser to those positions since he can play all 3. 

Cowser has been impressive defensively this year, even before his catch last night. 

So, "feet covered" is a little misleading, because not all plays have the same baseline average.  (e.g. going left or right is probably easier than going back.)  Feet vs average adjusts for for this, and they're pretty similar, with Cowser actually slightly ahead of Mullins.

 

In general I really didn't think Cowser could play CF based on what we saw last year, and Cowser's doing a good job of making me look like an idiot there.