Enrique Bradfield Jr. 2024

[Frobby]

Bradfield is on a little mini-tear, though only hitting singles lately.  He was 3 for 4 with a sac fly and 2 RBI tonight.  Over his last 10 games, he’s hitting .381/.426/.381, with only 4 strikeouts in 48 PA.

[sportsfan8703]

8 hours ago, Frobby said:

Bradfield is on a little mini-tear, though only hitting singles lately.  He was 3 for 4 with a sac fly and 2 RBI tonight.  Over his last 10 games, he’s hitting .381/.426/.381, with only 4 strikeouts in 48 PA.

Nice, thanks for the good news.
 

 Something to consider about EBJ’s OPS… the goal is for him to get himself to 2nd base right?  Why does it matter if he does that at the plate, if he’s stealing so many bases and achieving the same result?

He has 49 singles, and 26 walks. He’s 44/53 in stolen base attempts. 

He’s probably trying for 2nd base everytime there isn’t a runner occupying 2nd base. It also depends on if the batter co-operates and takes a pitch(es) so he can attempt to steal.

So OPS doesn’t calculate really what his value is. They don’t have WAR in the minors that does calculate defense and baserunning. Heck, for all we know he’s right on par of what he should be if “WAR” was available at this level.

So he’s “struggling” to hit a .800 OPS that is an artificial milestone that we’ve created. Not Sig and our models. 

Edited July 10 by sportsfan8703

[Dunk35]

Kinda seems like he's just a Billy Hamilton clone. 

[Sports Guy]

48 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Nice, thanks for the good news.
 

 Something to consider about EBJ’s OPS… the goal is for him to get himself to 2nd base right?  Why does it matter if he does that at the plate, if he’s stealing so many bases and achieving the same result?

He has 49 singles, and 26 walks. He’s 44/53 in stolen base attempts. 

He’s probably trying for 2nd base everytime there isn’t a runner occupying 2nd base. It also depends on if the batter co-operates and takes a pitch(es) so he can attempt to steal.

So OPS doesn’t calculate really what his value is. They don’t have WAR in the minors that does calculate defense and baserunning. Heck, for all we know he’s right on par of what he should be if “WAR” was available at this level.

So he’s “struggling” to hit a .800 OPS that is an artificial milestone that we’ve created. Not Sig and our models. 

But if he doesn’t show power, he will get challenged and he won’t get on base.

He doesn’t have to hit homers but he needs to show damage and hit the ball hard and be a gap to gap guy.

[Jagwar]

57 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But if he doesn’t show power, he will get challenged and he won’t get on base.

He doesn’t have to hit homers but he needs to show damage and hit the ball hard and be a gap to gap guy.

If that happens, who would be the most appropriate comps for him? Brett Butler? Willie Wilson? Vince Coleman?

[Rbiggs2525]

I know we speak of Billy Hamilton as a bad player but he was getting on base 1-2 times more per week from being a very good player. His first 5 seasons were average 2.2 FWAR. The highest hope for Bradfield would be Kenny Lofton who had 14 seasons under 10 homeruns.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Nice, thanks for the good news.
 

 Something to consider about EBJ’s OPS… the goal is for him to get himself to 2nd base right?  Why does it matter if he does that at the plate, if he’s stealing so many bases and achieving the same result?

He has 49 singles, and 26 walks. He’s 44/53 in stolen base attempts. 

He’s probably trying for 2nd base everytime there isn’t a runner occupying 2nd base. It also depends on if the batter co-operates and takes a pitch(es) so he can attempt to steal.

So OPS doesn’t calculate really what his value is. They don’t have WAR in the minors that does calculate defense and baserunning. Heck, for all we know he’s right on par of what he should be if “WAR” was available at this level.

So he’s “struggling” to hit a .800 OPS that is an artificial milestone that we’ve created. Not Sig and our models. 

First of all, you’re right that OPS doesn’t measure overall value or even fully measure offensive value.  Let’s just get that out of the way and concede you’re right about that.   That said:

1.  A guy with a .718 OPS in A+ isn’t likely to crack .700 in the majors, forget about .800.

2.  In situations with runners on base, a single and a stolen base are not as good as a double.  

3.  The value of a stolen base has to be weighed against the cost of caught stealings.  The break even point varies a bit with the offensive environment but is typically close to 70%.   So Bradfield’s 44/53 is about as valuable as a guy who stole 7 bases without getting caught.   

4.  We have almost no information on how good Bradfield’s defense has been.  When he was drafted, I was told by a knowledgeable source that he should be rangier than either Adam Jones or Cedric Mullins in their primes.   Is that proving to be the case at the minor league level?   I have no idea.   

Bottom line, I’m not satisfied with .278/.352/.366 and 44/53 SB.  I don’t think Bradfield needs to be at .800+,  but .718 isn’t good enough.   And, whatever the Orioles’ internal metrics might be, he hasn’t been promoted yet, so that tells you they think he’s got work to do at the high A level. 
 

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

3.  The value of a stolen base has to be weighed against the cost of caught stealings.  The break even point varies a bit with the offensive environment but is typically close to 70%.   So Bradfield’s 44/53 is about as valuable as a guy who stole 7 bases without getting caught.   

 

Is he going to be able to maintain that rate of success as he advances?

Mac Hoveth is 22 SB with 0 CS.  Reed Trimble is 13 and 0.

Tavian Josenberger is 33 and 4.

44 and 8 isn't that impressive.

[btdart20]

16 minutes ago, Frobby said:

First of all, you’re right that OPS doesn’t measure overall value or even fully measure offensive value.  Let’s just get that out of the way and concede you’re right about that.   That said:

1.  A guy with a .718 OPS in A+ isn’t likely to crack .700 in the majors, forget about .800.

2.  In situations with runners on base, a single and a stolen base are not as good as a double.  

3.  The value of a stolen base has to be weighed against the cost of caught stealings.  The break even point varies a bit with the offensive environment but is typically close to 70%.   So Bradfield’s 44/53 is about as valuable as a guy who stole 7 bases without getting caught.   

4.  We have almost no information on how good Bradfield’s defense has been.  When he was drafted, I was told by a knowledgeable source that he should be rangier than either Adam Jones or Cedric Mullins in their primes.   Is that proving to be the case at the minor league level?   I have no idea.   

Bottom line, I’m not satisfied with .278/.352/.366 and 44/53 SB.  I don’t think Bradfield needs to be at .800+,  but .718 isn’t good enough.   And, whatever the Orioles’ internal metrics might be, he hasn’t been promoted yet, so that tells you they think he’s got work to do at the high A level. 
 

Just adding some nuance:

2. Agreed.  Silver lining is that his low K% and contact skills help in these situations. Even if he's not getting doubles, he's putting ball in play maybe moving runners and forcing the defense to make a play.

3.  I think it's  a bit worse.  Meaning those 3 outs caught stealing would be weighted more.  He didn't just miss "getting a double".

4.  MiLB defensive metric are booty so we don't "know" (at least stats wise).  But I trust the scouts on his defense much more than projections for his offense.

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Is he going to be able to maintain that rate of success as he advances?

Mac Hoveth is 22 SB with 0 CS.  Reed Trimble is 13 and 0.

Tavian Josenberger is 33 and 4.

44 and 8 isn't that impressive.

Hard to say.  Billy Hamilton’s success rate was about the same in the majors as it was in the minors.  Bradfield clearly is pushing the envelope in A+, and probably he will be more selective as he moves up. The whole Aberdeen team is super aggressive.  They have 223 stolen bases in 81 games.  The next closest team is at 155.

[sportsfan8703]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

But if he doesn’t show power, he will get challenged and he won’t get on base.

He doesn’t have to hit homers but he needs to show damage and hit the ball hard and be a gap to gap guy.

What if he's not bunting because he's trying to develop the rest of his offensive profile?  Should we hold that against him? 

I'd imagine he'd be able to get a bunch of cheapy singles on bunts in A+ ball.  But we already know he has that skill.  Hey EBJ, drop a bunt down each week, so you reach an artificial milestone, so people can sleep better at night because of your box score line.  

The minors is for development.  You guys say you want a High School draftee, but Geez... is everyone ready for that learning curve?  We've been really spoiled recently.  

Edited July 10 by sportsfan8703

[sportsfan8703]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

First of all, you’re right that OPS doesn’t measure overall value or even fully measure offensive value.  Let’s just get that out of the way and concede you’re right about that.   That said:

1.  A guy with a .718 OPS in A+ isn’t likely to crack .700 in the majors, forget about .800.

2.  In situations with runners on base, a single and a stolen base are not as good as a double.  

3.  The value of a stolen base has to be weighed against the cost of caught stealings.  The break even point varies a bit with the offensive environment but is typically close to 70%.   So Bradfield’s 44/53 is about as valuable as a guy who stole 7 bases without getting caught.   

4.  We have almost no information on how good Bradfield’s defense has been.  When he was drafted, I was told by a knowledgeable source that he should be rangier than either Adam Jones or Cedric Mullins in their primes.   Is that proving to be the case at the minor league level?   I have no idea.   

Bottom line, I’m not satisfied with .278/.352/.366 and 44/53 SB.  I don’t think Bradfield needs to be at .800+,  but .718 isn’t good enough.   And, whatever the Orioles’ internal metrics might be, he hasn’t been promoted yet, so that tells you they think he’s got work to do at the high A level. 
 

What would that .718 OPS be if he dropped down 2 bunts a week for singles?  Would that change everyone's mind about his season?  We're already conceding that Catcher's don't throw so well down there.  So how would the A+ ball defense do against those bunts?  See my point...

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

What would that .718 OPS be if he dropped down 2 bunts a week for singles?  Would that change everyone's mind about his season?  We're already conceding that Catcher's don't throw so well down there.  So how would the A+ ball defense do against those bunts?  See my point...

Why do you assume he’s not already dropping down multiple bunts per week?

[Aglets]

9 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Why do you assume he’s not already dropping down multiple bunts per week?

It appears that according to Fangraphs the O's have ONE bunt hit this year (tied for lowest in majors) on 7 attempts.   That's in 91 games.    I think it's safe to say bunting is not something we emphasize as an organizational strategy.

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Aglets said:

It appears that according to Fangraphs the O's have ONE bunt hit this year (tied for lowest in majors) on 7 attempts.   That's in 91 games.    I think it's safe to say bunting is not something we emphasize as an organizational strategy.

Guarantee you, Bradfield has more than 7 bunt attempts on the season.