Trade Idea - Marlins/Pirates/Angels/etc.

[Answerman]

I'm enjoying this dialog...some say Hays has little/no value, others say we need to get something "better than Scott" for him. Ultimately, I think the lineup is better with Kerstad in it instead of Hays. However, if that means only getting 70 cents on the dollar in a trade, is it still something we should pursue? Interesting question. One we may have to some day answer about Mountcastle (to make room for Mayo/Basallo).

 

[clapdiddy]

4 minutes ago, Answerman said:

I'm enjoying this dialog...some say Hays has little/no value, others say we need to get something "better than Scott" for him. Ultimately, I think the lineup is better with Kerstad in it instead of Hays. However, if that means only getting 70 cents on the dollar in a trade, is it still something we should pursue? Interesting question. One we may have to some day answer about Mountcastle (to make room for Mayo/Basallo).

 

When I said "better than Scott", I don't think it necessarily means a reliever.   I was thinking of dealing Hays for a young arm or two that Elias/Sig may see nice peripherals in the lower minors.  That would allow them to deal Hays AND promote Stowers or Norby or Kjerstad.

[sportsfan8703]

We got a long ways to go before we consider trading for a reliever. If things go right… Wells and Irvin could both be in the bullpen. Maybe McDermott or Seth Johnson become bullpen options. Elias is always working the waiver wire as well. 

Just remember when talking about what it takes for a stud reliever… The Rangers trade Cole Ragans for Chapman. 

If you are going to trade for a reliever, then we need someone that’s been in the playoffs preferably too. 

[Fiver6565]

I would be pretty shocked if Hays was wasn’t on this team when the game playoffs start, barring injury. He still has motor value to the Os than he will bring bsck in a trade. Whoever it was that mentioned Hays in a McKenna-esque role was spot on. He’ll get a lot more PT than McKenna got, but regardless thats a nice little upgrade to that spot. 
 

 

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, owknows said:

 

The time to have moved Hays, or Mullins, or Urias,  or perhaps even Mateo or O'Hearn, would have been before the crushing weight of success from Mayo, and Stowers, and Kjerstad, and Norby made it urgent. And when each was playing at his peak. Now we have a slow motion train wreck of riches converging... and the value we might have extracted out of the former is being diminished by the need to promote the latter.

It is my one recurrent criticism of Elias and Co.

Awesome eyes for talent. Great strategy for amassing player wealth... but a little too "Scrooge McDuck"  on letting go of talent aging out in the arb years.

I do understand this perspective.  I think Elias is cautious with his young players, and keeps vets around as a hedge against the possibility that his evaluations of the younger guys as minor leaguers turns out to be wrong.  Also for some clubhouse reasons.  This probably does/will result in us not getting “full value” for the vets by trading them at the exact right moment, but Elias would rather have the problem of having too much talent around than sending some vets off and then finding out his young guys aren’t performing as hoped.   There’s risk either way.

I also think that the cold start of Hays and Urias and the hot start of just about everyone in Norfolk is tilting the conversation a bit.  Let’s see how all this looks in a month or two.  We’re already seeing Norfolk calm down a bit now that they’re not playing in Charlotte.  

[owknows]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I do understand this perspective.  I think Elias is cautious with his young players, and keeps vets around as a hedge against the possibility that his evaluations of the younger guys as minor leaguers turns out to be wrong.  Also for some clubhouse reasons.  This probably does/will result in us not getting “full value” for the vets by trading them at the exact right moment, but Elias would rather have the problem of having too much talent around than sending some vets off and then finding out his young guys aren’t performing as hoped.   There’s risk either way.

I also think that the cold start of Hays and Urias and the hot start of just about everyone in Norfolk is tilting the conversation a bit.  Let’s see how all this looks in a month or two.  We’re already seeing Norfolk calm down a bit now that they’re not playing in Charlotte.  

All of this makes really good sense.

And I think my Reader's Digest version of the Elias critique doesn't really address the greater flaw in the miserly strategy... which was trying to save control years on emerging players by installing Odor and Frazier type players (in addition to holding onto out-year players) instead of kicking the tires on internal guys earlier.

But I've already griped about that one enough. I just think this was predictable pain.

[Fiver6565]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I do understand this perspective.  I think Elias is cautious with his young players, and keeps vets around as a hedge against the possibility that his evaluations of the younger guys as minor leaguers turns out to be wrong.  Also for some clubhouse reasons.  This probably does/will result in us not getting “full value” for the vets by trading them at the exact right moment, but Elias would rather have the problem of having too much talent around than sending some vets off and then finding out his young guys aren’t performing as hoped.   There’s risk either way.

I also think that the cold start of Hays and Urias and the hot start of just about everyone in Norfolk is tilting the conversation a bit.  Let’s see how all this looks in a month or two.  We’re already seeing Norfolk calm down a bit now that they’re not playing in Charlotte.  

Another excellent and logical post. I appreciate you Frobby!

[waroriole]

Why would any of these teams trade an asset like Scott or Bednar for Austin Hays, who won’t even be helpful to them. If you trade Hays, it’s better to trade him to a decent team that needs OF help. 

[interloper]

17 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

We got a long ways to go before we consider trading for a reliever. If things go right… Wells and Irvin could both be in the bullpen. Maybe McDermott or Seth Johnson become bullpen options. Elias is always working the waiver wire as well. 

Just remember when talking about what it takes for a stud reliever… The Rangers trade Cole Ragans for Chapman. 

If you are going to trade for a reliever, then we need someone that’s been in the playoffs preferably too. 

Yeah. My expectation with trading for a top reliever at the deadline is that it would cost one of Norfolk's top 3 guys in Mayo, Kjerstad, or Norby. Or a SP like Povich. It certainly won't be cheap, and Elias may balk at the whole concept in the end. 

Whatever he ends up doing, it can't be another Fuji. It has to be someone more battle-tested than that AND someone who can get whiffs. 

Edited April 11 by interloper

[Bemorewins]

2 hours ago, Answerman said:

We have got to find room for another outfielder to come up from Norfolk...I think Kerstad before Stowers (though both have earned it). How do we make room? We have to trade away one of our vets. At this point, I think we keep Mullins and trade one of the corners. However, with Santander being on the last year of his contract, he might be harder to move to a low payroll team. So, I conclude that Hays is the guy we should shop. After all, he has four decent tools (and batting average isn't typically horrible), plays the game the right way, is by all accounts a great clubhouse guy, AND, for what it is worth, he was the starting LF in last year's all-star game (doesn't mean anything, but easier for the acquiring GM to sell). Surely, there is a team that would pony up a decent reliever for Austin, no? Here are a few thoughts:

Target 1: Marlins - Tanner Scott. Why does MLB's worst team need a good bullpen pitcher on an expiring contract? At least Hays would give them an everyday bat for this year and next.

Target 2: Pirates - David Bednar. Bucs are for real, and so far Bednar has been awful. Assuming he is not hurt, we can bet he will get it together. We would have to add a prospect or two (Norby/Beavers?) to make it happen, but a typical Bednar would be worth the cost and has this year plus two more (I think) remaining on his contract.

Target 3: Angels - Matt Moore and Andrew Wantz. Moore is a solid bullpen guy who has seen it all. Can still get guys out. Wantz is a AAA reliever who can come up in a pinch (also childhood friends with my daughter, so that's fun for us!).

Your preferred targets...What say ye?

With less than 2 weeks into the season, I say it's WAY TOO EARLY to know what we might need via trade.

However, to respond to your desire to bring up Kjerstad and trade away Hays, I say this - How are he and Kjerstad redundant pieces to you? One plays LF the other would be a RF in this ballpark. One bats from the Right side and the other is left handed. Also, Hays is not playing that much as is (more or less functioning as a 4th outfielder). Is that what you would want Kjerstad (or even Stowers for that matter) to do? Or do you want to take playing time away from Cowser?

[George Zuverink]

1 hour ago, Answerman said:

…No, the bigger issue is, even at his usual self, we have better outfielders who are ready to come up and play in Baltimore now...

 

No, we have OFs who may be better hitters, but neither are better OFs and neither bat RH and we have already shown a weakness against LHP.

[Malike]

1 hour ago, waroriole said:

Why would any of these teams trade an asset like Scott or Bednar for Austin Hays, who won’t even be helpful to them. If you trade Hays, it’s better to trade him to a decent team that needs OF help. 

If Scott reverts back to his old form, and it's not looking fantastic out of the gate with the BB, then his cost is going down. After watching his 9th against the Yankees last night, I'm not sure I'd trust him in our pen. He got really lucky that Judge didn't hit that cookie with the bases loaded 500 feet.

[waroriole]

1 hour ago, Malike said:

If Scott reverts back to his old form, and it's not looking fantastic out of the gate with the BB, then his cost is going down. After watching his 9th against the Yankees last night, I'm not sure I'd trust him in our pen. He got really lucky that Judge didn't hit that cookie with the bases loaded 500 feet.

Sure, but what would the Marlins want with Austin Hays? I’d think they want a younger guy, and not someone who’s near free agency and declining. 

[Malike]

10 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Sure, but what would the Marlins want with Austin Hays? I’d think they want a younger guy, and not someone who’s near free agency and declining. 

Oh they wouldn't want Hays, I'm just not sure we'd want Scott based off of one good year.

[waroriole]

10 minutes ago, Malike said:

Oh they wouldn't want Hays, I'm just not sure we'd want Scott based off of one good year.

I don’t think I’d want Scott either, unless it was bargain basement pricing. He was fortunate last year to find some control, but it was definitely an outlier year.