Holliday 2024 fWAR expectations

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Fiver6565 said:

To be clear, I don't think he's going to get sent down.  But the reality is he will need to pick up the pace relatively significantly to even get to the Cal bar.  He's on pace for 5 or 6-for-104 right now, with a million K's in there.  Again, not saying that will continue, I highly doubt it does.  I'm just curious HOW bad it would have to get before they'd send him down.

I also don't think he's necessarily shown that he's mastered AAA pitching, as someone else posited. He's hit well there but it wasn't a lot of games, and half the ones from this year were against a team that seems it shouldn't even be in AAA its so bad.  I'd be curious how far his stats would have dropped in AAA if he'd stayed, the way the rest of the guys have evened off.

All of which is to say, he's here, and I am pretty confident he's staying almost regardless, but I am curious where the line for breaching that 'almost' is.

But he's not on pace to go 6-for-104. He's expected to post something like a .800 OPS, so he's on pace to do (whatever he's done so far) and another 70-odd PAs of something much better than that.

[Pickles]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Have the same poll up on twitter.

So far, with 79 votes, it’s 51% under , 49% over.

So, OH i more pessimistic so far.

Surprising result to me.

As one who took the under, I'm not surprised that the OH seems to have better judgment than Twitter.

[Malike]

Just now, Pickles said:

As one who took the under, I'm not surprised that the OH seems to have better judgment than Twitter.

The sky is falling here more than anywhere else when it comes to the Orioles. I'm not surprised either, but I'm not going to pretend that people here are more intelligent.

[DrungoHazewood]

A good poll would be who's going to have more value for the rest of 2024: Cowser or Holliday?

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Have the same poll up on twitter.

So far, with 79 votes, it’s 51% under , 49% over.

So, OH i more pessimistic so far.

Surprising result to me.

Knowing Twitter I'm surprised it's not 90-10 under. Isn't purpose of Twitter to convince us that the world has already ended and we're all too stupid to notice?

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, Malike said:

The sky is falling here more than anywhere else when it comes to the Orioles. I'm not surprised either, but I'm not going to pretend that people here are more intelligent.

Correct. OH is largely more intelligent than twitter but there is still the same the sky is falling mentality here and the same over the top reaction when things are going well.

My surprise is that this site is more on the pessimistic side.  I think basically a 50/50 split is more representative of around where I thought it would be.  Right now, it’s 52/48 under with way more votes, so it’s really not much different.

[Fiver6565]

49 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

But he's not on pace to go 6-for-104. He's expected to post something like a .800 OPS, so he's on pace to do (whatever he's done so far) and another 70-odd PAs of something much better than that.

Probably semantics, but I don't think 'expected to' and 'on pace for' mean the same thing in context like this.  That being said, I fully understand what you're saying, and I do think that an .800 OPS as a season-long result is more likely than another 1-40 or whatever and a subsequent demotion.

[Pickles]

1 hour ago, Malike said:

The sky is falling here more than anywhere else when it comes to the Orioles. I'm not surprised either, but I'm not going to pretend that people here are more intelligent.

Well, the winning has drawn a less informed fan base imo, but it's still far superior to Twitter.

[Malike]

14 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Well, the winning has drawn a less informed fan base imo, but it's still far superior to Twitter.

I don't dispute that.

[ArtVanDelay]

1 hour ago, Malike said:

The sky is falling here more than anywhere else when it comes to the Orioles. I'm not surprised either, but I'm not going to pretend that people here are more intelligent.

I didn’t realize that Holliday putting up less than 3 WAR meant that the sky is falling.

Also, I don’t even use twitter and I know that people here are far more intelligent baseball fans.

[Jagwar]

I abstain. I have no idea what fWAR is

[Oriole1940]

54 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:

Probably semantics, but I don't think 'expected to' and 'on pace for' mean the same thing in context like this.  That being said, I fully understand what you're saying, and I do think that an .800 OPS as a season-long result is more likely than another 1-40 or whatever and a subsequent demotion.

  On pace compares the Past, while Expected to compares hope for the Future.  They are not the same thing.  

[ArtVanDelay]

1 minute ago, Jagwar said:

I abstain. I have no idea what fWAR is

It’s Fangraphs version of WAR. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

I abstain. I have no idea what fWAR is

Fangraphs WAR.

Dont feel like hearing CoC cry about not asking what WAR are we talking because you didn’t put the little letter in front of it. (Even though fWAR is the only one I discuss)

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Fangraphs WAR.

Dont feel like hearing CoC cry about not asking what WAR are we talking because you didn’t put the little letter in front of it. (Even though fWAR is the only one I discuss)

It's sensible to specify since they are not calculated in the same fashion.

His rWAR is twice as far in the red as his fWAR.

Edited April 18 by Can_of_corn