Holliday 2024 fWAR expectations

[Sports Guy]

I’m setting the O/U at 2.9 fWAR for 2024.  Over or under?

Edited April 18 by Sports Guy

[dzorange]

A 3+ fWAR the rest of the way seems mighty aggressive. His defense has rated very well on Fangraphs so far as well. It's not going to continue at that rate.

[Jim'sKid26]

I voted over. Bat to ball skills are elite. He will hit. He has defensive value that will show as he gets more comfortable at 2B. His speed and base running also add value. He's at least a 3 fWAR player.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, dzorange said:

A 3+ fWAR the rest of the way seems mighty aggressive. His defense has rated very well on Fangraphs so far as well. It's not going to continue at that rate.

He's at -.2 right now so yea, he'd need to exceed three wins the rest of the way.  Seems a bit too optimistic for me right now.

Pretty fair cutoff point.

[sportsfan8703]

@Sports Guy you could’ve just really simplified this and made the poll “Will Holliday be ‘ok’ this year?  Yes?  No?  

The Betting sites have him at the same odds to win ROY as they do to have Burnes win the CYA. 

As a degen, I’d blind bet the over on any Holliday prop right now. 

So my answer is, OVER

Edited April 18 by sportsfan8703

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

@Sports Guy you could’ve just really simplified this and made the poll “Will Holliday be ‘ok’ this year?  Yes?  No?  

The Betting sites have him at the same odds to win ROY as they do to have Burnes win the CYA. 

As a degen, I’d blind bet the over on any Holliday prop right now. 

So my answer is, OVER

If you had a team full of "OK" 3 wins guys you'd do really well.

The O's had two position players last season that had 3 fWAR.

[sportsfan8703]

Holliday will be a WAR rack once he gets going. He plays 2B and will steal bases. Just like how Mateo has been able to be a WAR rack in the past. 

The added positional value and base stealing will carry his slow start. 

[ArtVanDelay]

22 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Holliday will be a WAR rack once he gets going. He plays 2B and will steal bases. Just like how Mateo has been able to be a WAR rack in the past. 

The added positional value and base stealing will carry his slow start. 

Well there’s a big difference between a good fielding SS and an average fielding 2nd baseman when it comes to WAR.  Unless you think Holliday is elite at 2B.  I’m not so sure about that yet. 

Edited April 18 by ArtVanDelay

[btdart20]

I took the over.  Maybe should gave taken the under as a reverse jinx...

[survivedc]

29 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If you had a team full of "OK" 3 wins guys you'd do really well.

The O's had two position players last season that had 3 fWAR.

I was surprised it was that low. Mullins might have exceeded it without the injuries.

More critical than the good might have been the only 5 guys totally 93 plate appearances in negative WAR.

[Frobby]

I’d take the under, and I probably would have said that the day he got called up.  ZiPS had him at 2.7 before the season began, and now has him at 2.2 the rest of the way (he’s at -0.2 now, so the updated full season projection would be 2.0).  And I’d be perfectly fine with a 2 WAR season from a 20-year old rookie.  Witt had a 2.4 rookie year at 21, and look at him now.  

[sportsfan8703]

25 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

Well there’s a big difference between a good fielding SS and an average fielding 2nd baseman when it comes to WAR.  Unless you think Holliday is elite at 2B.  I’m not so sure about that yet. 

Agreed, but on the flip side, SS is much deeper offensively than second base. Once you get past the top 5 you get in into guys like Andres Giménez, Nico Hoerner, and Gavin Lux. 

2.9 is a pretty sharp number considering only 5-7 guys at 2B put that up last year. 

His tool that’s going to carry him over the 2.9 is his base running. Not just steals, but he’s going to be a machine on the bases in front of Gunnar. 

Holliday just has to start dropping some hits in. The numbers will come. I think the off day, and going on the road, will help him. Basically, it gets a chance to breathe. 

[Sports Guy]

For those voting under, would you have voted under had I asked this question the day they brought him up?

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

 

His tool that’s going to carry him over the 2.9 is his base running. Not just steals, but he’s going to be a machine on the bases in front of Gunnar. 

Baserunning is worth at best about 0.5 WAR.   

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

For those voting under, would you have voted under had I asked this question the day they brought him up?

Yes, but it would have been a tougher call.