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Where do we think Cowser and Westburg settle in offensively?


Frobby

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2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m thinking more about about their average performance over the next 5-6 years while under team control.

Ok…yea I think your numbers are optimistic. That puts them into the 4-6 WAR range I would imagine and I think that’s a bit high for every year.

I expect both of them to be solid 780-830 type OPs guy with solid defense…2.5-4 WAR guys with the potential to spike to a 5+ WAR season perhaps once or twice in their careers.

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With their minor league success, it seems average MLB production would be a good baseline expectation. I'd be happy with .750, very happy with .800, and thrilled with .850 and over. League average this year is .698. 

One thing to note, Cowser has only 10 AB vs LHP this year. In addition to regression to the mean, exposure to LHP may drag down his stats as he solidifies an everyday role. 

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I have no idea either but from my eye test, Westburg seems to have fewer "holes' at bat. Not as much swing and miss. So, I'll predict Westburg has the higer ceiling and probably be wrong cause I'm lousey at predicting. Like them both and loved the interview yesterday. Hope they both are Orioles for a long time.

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Since the MIL series, Cowser is 4-18 (.222), and hasn't displayed any of that fun ability to go the other way, which is what I think will enable him to be a very good hitter at this level. I hope he continues to think LF and doesn't get pull happy. He does have the 1 home run and 3 walks during this stretch though. 

Edited by interloper
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2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Ok…yea I think your numbers are optimistic. That puts them into the 4-6 WAR range I would imagine and I think that’s a bit high for every year.

I expect both of them to be solid 780-830 type OPs guy with solid defense…2.5-4 WAR guys with the potential to spike to a 5+ WAR season perhaps once or twice in their careers.

That would be plenty good enough.  I admit my numbers were a little aggressive.  What the hell, it’s April so I’m allowed a little irrational exuberance.  

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12 minutes ago, Too Tall said:

I have no idea either but from my eye test, Westburg seems to have fewer "holes' at bat. Not as much swing and miss. So, I'll predict Westburg has the higer ceiling and probably be wrong cause I'm lousey at predicting. Like them both and loved the interview yesterday. Hope they both are Orioles for a long time.

Westburg is a good player but he is 3rd percentile in swing and miss.


https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/jordan-westburg-676059

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I don't really have a strong opinion on the original question beyond what typical projection systems and MLEs would say.

But it is kind of funny that you could go back through threads from 2, 3, 4 months ago and there would be no shortage of people wondering if either of these guys was going to ever establish themselves as solid MLB regulars.

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I’m equally as encouraged that both of these guys are plus in the field and have shown to be above average as well on the base paths too.  While they may each always have some swing and miss to their game, both are impressing as all around “complete” baseball players.  And from a fans standpoint, they just exude enjoyment in their everyday demeanor. 

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