Where do we think Cowser and Westburg settle in offensively?

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Juan Soto wishes he was one of these guys

Making 770k.  I don’t think so.  

[bpilktree]

3 hours ago, interloper said:

Since the MIL series, Cowser is 4-18 (.222), and hasn't displayed any of that fun ability to go the other way, which is what I think will enable him to be a very good hitter at this level. I hope he continues to think LF and doesn't get pull happy. He does have the 1 home run and 3 walks during this stretch though. 

He is 4-13 recently.  He had 1 bad game in there so with small sample size makes huge difference.  

[G54377]

I like keeping them back to back in the middle-end of the lineup. I think they may settle in as the 5/6 hitters behind Holliday/Adley/Gunnar/Mayo when all things settle.

Holliday

Adley

Henderson

Mayo

Cowser

Westburg

[Moose Milligan]

3 hours ago, Malike said:

Thread jinx. Also, I believe they will be sub .800 OPS guys. Solid everyday players, not stars. 

I'm not sure how to look at this without doing a lot of legwork that I am not interested in doing outside of this:

https://www.mlb.com/awards/player-of-the-week

But we just witnessed an amazing week of hitting from Colton Cowser.  And of course that's not a real barometer for who he'll end up being, but it was good enough to win player of the week.

Curious to see what types of careers player of the week winners have had.  That's the thing about it, you have to be exceptionally great for a week and you can win it.

But I don't think many average players do.  And I certainly don't think any BAD players do...like, I don't think Mario Mendoza would have won one.  

Looking at last years winners in the AL, there's not a real head scratcher in the bunch.

Dunno, just spitballing.

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'm not sure how to look at this without doing a lot of legwork that I am not interested in doing outside of this:

https://www.mlb.com/awards/player-of-the-week

But we just witnessed an amazing week of hitting from Colton Cowser.  And of course that's not a real barometer for who he'll end up being, but it was good enough to win player of the week.

Curious to see what types of careers player of the week winners have had.  That's the thing about it, you have to be exceptionally great for a week and you can win it.

But I don't think many average players do.  And I certainly don't think any BAD players do...like, I don't think Mario Mendoza would have won one.  

Looking at last years winners in the AL, there's not a real head scratcher in the bunch.

Dunno, just spitballing.

I dunno, I wouldn't be surprised if, like, DJ Stewart has one of these. Lol. 

[DirtyBird]

I assume they will both settle in as .900 OPS hitters

[DirtyBird]

 

[CallMeBrooksie]

32 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'm not sure how to look at this without doing a lot of legwork that I am not interested in doing outside of this:

https://www.mlb.com/awards/player-of-the-week

But we just witnessed an amazing week of hitting from Colton Cowser.  And of course that's not a real barometer for who he'll end up being, but it was good enough to win player of the week.

Curious to see what types of careers player of the week winners have had.  That's the thing about it, you have to be exceptionally great for a week and you can win it.

But I don't think many average players do.  And I certainly don't think any BAD players do...like, I don't think Mario Mendoza would have won one.  

Looking at last years winners in the AL, there's not a real head scratcher in the bunch.

Dunno, just spitballing.

Not a whole lot to nitpick in those lists, but I only looked at the AL. My takeaway: we can establish Yermin Mercedes as the absolute floor for Cowser.

[CaptainRedbeard]

I’m very confident now that both of these guys are going to hit for power and that, combined with their plus defense, will make them at a minimum solid starters (but still a question how Cowser will hit LHP).

However, both still have a LOT of whiff and it’s hard to know where they end up with K and BB rates. I think they’ll run good BABIPs given their ability to do damage on contact but there’s a wide range of outcomes for their AVG and OBP. That’s what will determine where they fall between solid 2-3 WAR types and 4+ WAR star players. 

[dzorange]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

Colton Cowser (.373/.411/.784) and Jordan Westburg (.333/.392/.692) are both on a tremendous roll right now, but where do you see them settling in?

Cowser was a .298/.420/.489 hitter as a minor leaguer, including .280/.399/.498 in AAA.   His cumulative major league numbers are .232/.338/.438.

Westburg was a .278/.371/.506 hitter as a minor leaguer, including .283/.366/.533 in AAA.   His cumulative major league numbers are .279/.332/.464.   

My best guess is that Cowser settles in around .285/.375/.485, while Westburg is something like .275/.350/.485.   And honestly, that would be pretty amazing.   

It would be amazing and I think those lines are reasonable.

Even if just one of these two guys pan out with those lines, it would be such a shot to the organization.

It's important to hit on the elite prospects like Adley, Holliday and Grayson. But the Orioles hitting on any of the other prospects is really what takes the organization to great heights. Gunnar's development being an example of that.

Hitting on both Cowser AND Westburg in 2024 means that this team is even more solidified as a legit World Series contender for this season. Those slash lines would put both Cowser and Westburg over a 4 WAR over a full 2024 season.

If this happens, what does the batting order turn into over the summer?

 

[dzorange]

1 hour ago, DirtyBird said:

I assume they will both settle in as .900 OPS hitters

That would be really nice and would offset your OPS projections for Mullins and Santander, which I would guess is around .590 and .610, respectively.

So between the four of them, we'd average four league average hitters.

[HelenaEngineer]

5 hours ago, Warehouse said:

Westburg is a good player but he is 3rd percentile in swing and miss.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/jordan-westburg-676059

True - but he is only in the 57% percentile in strikeouts and is in the 99th in hard hit percentage. 3% in whiff rate and 57% in K rate seems like a very strange combination. I guess someone who swings for the fences until he hits two strikes and then just makes contact and goes from there could have numbers like that - which would also explain hard hit percentage. IIRC, though, a lot of his HRs and rockets have come with 2 strikes, so I am not sure that theory holds up.

[Warehouse]

3 hours ago, HelenaEngineer said:

True - but he is only in the 57% percentile in strikeouts and is in the 99th in hard hit percentage. 3% in whiff rate and 57% in K rate seems like a very strange combination. I guess someone who swings for the fences until he hits two strikes and then just makes contact and goes from there could have numbers like that - which would also explain hard hit percentage. IIRC, though, a lot of his HRs and rockets have come with 2 strikes, so I am not sure that theory holds up.

Below is the detail.

Month	Year	Level	Pitches	Whiff%	Whiff% (<2 stk)	Whiff% (2 stk)	Whiff-diff	C-stk %	SwStk%	CSW%	Foul % (<2 stk)	K%
March/April	2023	AAA	482	32.6%	33.3%	30.9%	2.4%	12.5%	16.6%	29.1%	14.0%	22.0%
May	2023	AAA	337	30.6%	28.7%	32.4%	-3.7%	14.7%	14.1%	28.8%	13.7%	22.4%
June	2023	AAA	309	26.9%	25.3%	30.4%	-5.1%	13.3%	12.6%	25.9%	16.3%	18.8%
June	2023	MLB	59	27.6%	33.3%	18.2%	15.1%	15.3%	13.6%	28.8%	17.1%	13.3%
July	2023	MLB	236	25.2%	21.1%	30.2%	-9.1%	15.3%	13.1%	28.4%	18.1%	28.8%
August	2023	MLB	334	26.6%	31.6%	20.0%	11.6%	16.2%	12.6%	28.7%	12.3%	18.4%
September	2023	MLB	240	24.8%	19.4%	30.6%	-11.2%	18.8%	11.7%	30.4%	17.9%	31.7%
March/April	2024	MLB	311	37.7%	43.3%	28.8%	14.5%	12.9%	18.3%	31.2%	9.0%	20.0%
Westy AAA total	2023	AAA	1128	30.2%	29.7%	31.4%	-1.7%	13.7%	14.5%	28.1%	14.5%	21.3%
Westy MLB total	‘23-;24	MLB	1180	28.9%	30.5%	26.7%	3.8%	15.6%	14.1%	29.7%	13.9%	23.4%
AAA league avg	2023	AAA		26.8%	27.1%	26.5%	0.6%	15.4%	12.2%	27.6%	14.9%	22.4%
MLB league avg	‘23-;24	MLB		25.7%	26.4%	24.9%	1.5%	16.5%	12.2%	28.7%	15.8%	22.7%