The Os will be in the playoffs

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

I think the question is whether Holliday will be ready this year. He is very young and may not be able to match Mateo's production. I hope Holliday is ready but I'm glad we have Mateo as a Plan B if he struggles.

When Mateo goes back to being a sub 650 OPS guy, I doubt you will be glad.

[Aristotelian]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

When Mateo goes back to being a sub 650 OPS guy, I doubt you will be glad.

No doubt, I'm expecting that from Mateo. But sub .600 with worse defense is a possible outcome for Holliday this year. I hope it doesn't happen but I don't think we can rule it out. 

[Hallas]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

No doubt, I'm expecting that from Mateo. But sub .600 with worse defense is a possible outcome for Holliday this year. I hope it doesn't happen but I don't think we can rule it out. 

SSS but Holliday was playing incredible defense after like the first game or two when he seemed to have some jitters.  He had +3 OAA in a very short span.  Mateo has looked a little awkward at 2nd to be honest, and he's not the best at making the double play turn.

[Hallas]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

When Mateo goes back to being a sub 650 OPS guy, I doubt you will be glad.

Urias looks pretty cooked too though, and he's not providing the kind of defensive flexibility that Mateo is, and he doesn't have very good splits for platooning.  At least for 2023 and 2024 Mateo has had good platoon splits.

[Safelykept]

8 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Barring a rash of injuries, the Os are going to be in the playoffs.  Seeding matters very little but they will either be the 1 seed or the 4 seed imo.

That said, the reason I mention this is because we have had a lot of discussions about replacing player X or player Y.

The reason to replace this guy or that guy isn’t to improve for the regular season…it’s to improve for the playoffs and give us the best chance to win.

With that in mind, by the time the playoffs get here, these are the players the team will be depending on, again barring injury, unexpected (or continuing) awful performanceor any potential trade:

Offensive players:  Mounty, Holliday, Henderson, Westburg, Cowser, Mullins, Hays, Santander and OHearn.  
 

Pitchers: Burnes, Bradish, Grayson, Means, Kremer, Irvin, Cano, DC, Kimbrel

 

That is 18 players.  Mateo and McCann will also be on the postseason roster but McCann isn’t likely to see the field, although Mateo will.

That leaves 6 spots.  Some of those spots may be filled by internal candidates for the pen or a guys like Mayo, Kjerstad and Norby.  Basallo could get in this picture but his continued slow start makes that even more unlikely than it was.

End of the day, the goal the rest of this season should be to get the roster to the point where they can win a title. 
 

For me, that means a few things:

1) Get 1 high leverage reliever and maybe 2.

2) Get Holliday up within the next 6 weeks.

3) Get Mayo playing time in RF now, so he can get up here in the second half and be ready to contribute. They could use his right handed bat.

As of now, you don’t trade for an offensive player or a starting pitcher unless there is one there that you can control for several years.

The resources the team has should go the pen and getting the right arm(s) for October. We consistently see teams go against the Orioles with these dominant pens where everyone is throwing 98+ with big time swing and miss stuff.  This is what the Os will be facing in the playoffs, so we need Holliday and Mayo to get up here to face that a lot and we need arms to match those guys in the playoffs.

For me, the playoffs are a foregone conclusion but success in the playoffs is not. This roster isn’t there yet for that but it can be. 

I like the strengthening the BP plan, but not sure how you do this. Also there are other ways to win as per Texas last year, who traded for Montgomery at the deadline (absolute Brilliance) as HE and Evaldi  came up huge in the post season. BP addition was Chapman, not sure anybody is saying go after him as an upgrade to the BP. Texas BP did have thier moments last year in the post season but nowhere like the above mentioned starters, and most importantly  they came up there swing those bats. Just Saying

[Safelykept]

7 hours ago, maybenxtyr said:

They're really getting to the point where they need to do something with Urias or Mateo. Mateo seems to be in favor right now so Urias is the likely candidate to move for Mayo. Mayo could get 4-5 starts a week and hopefully provide some pop after an acclimation period. 

 

Mullins isn't going anywhere because they just don't have a reliable CF other than him.

 

Grab a BP arm or 2 and roll with what they have.

Mayo For Urias nets Mayo 4 or 5 starts a week. Where? Urias is barely getting one start a week

[Safelykept]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Please stop overrating and overvaluing Mateo. Os fans really can’t learn their lesson with this guy.

He is thriving in his role right now and that’s great. He looks to be turning into a good super UTI guy although we still need to see more of it.

But let’s stop with the idea that he should play over Holliday long term this season.

Who said that, other than You?

[Sports Guy]

6 hours ago, Hallas said:

Urias looks pretty cooked too though, and he's not providing the kind of defensive flexibility that Mateo is, and he doesn't have very good splits for platooning.  At least for 2023 and 2024 Mateo has had good platoon splits.

I’m not talking about Mateo vs Urias though.  
 

Mateo’s April last year helped drive those lefty splits.  He was awful after April vs lefties (and righties).

[maybenxtyr]

4 hours ago, Safelykept said:

Mayo For Urias nets Mayo 4 or 5 starts a week. Where? Urias is barely getting one start a week

Well, Westburg could start at 2nd instead of Mateo.

 

McCann could be used as just a back up catcher instead of using him just to get an extra RH bat in the lineup. He's been in 19 of the teams 41 games. That seems a bit excessive for a guy that's just a backup.

 

You really don't have to squint to see an opportunity for a player to get a chance... especially if he can start hitting rather quickly.

[Matt Bennett]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m not talking about Mateo vs Urias though.  
 

Mateo’s April last year helped drive those lefty splits.  He was awful after April vs lefties (and righties).

Eh. If you want to throw out Mateo's April, can we throw out Mateo's May too? Neither is reflective of the quality of hitter he is. 

2023 Mateo April: 1.062 OPS (not reflective)

2023 Mateo May: .316 OPS (not reflective)

2023 Mateo April and May combined: .659 OPS (very reflective) vs. Mateo Career: .639 OPS

Mateo 2023 vs. LHP: 108 wRC+ (keeping April and May)

Mateo 2023 vs. LHP from May 1st on: 78 wRC+ (removing April)

Mateo 2023 vs. LHP from June 1st on: 109 wRC+ (removing April and May)

Mateo vs. LHP from May 1st 2023 until present: 108 wRC+ 

So I think throwing out April while keeping May isn't giving him enough credit. Even throwing out April of 2023, he's been good against LHP since May 1st if you just extend the time range. He just can't be playing against RHP. That's where Holliday comes in.

 

[emmett16]

I don’t see a path for Mayo to get the ABs needed to acclimate & become a force in the lineup this year.  Someone would need to be moved.  I don’t see them bringing him up to get sporadic ABs and if they do bring him up and give him sporadic ABs I don’t see him being a difference maker.  He’s a special talent but every single one of our top tier guys have needed time to adjust.  How does he get that opportunity? 

[Safelykept]

51 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

Well, Westburg could start at 2nd instead of Mateo.

 

McCann could be used as just a back up catcher instead of using him just to get an extra RH bat in the lineup. He's been in 19 of the teams 41 games. That seems a bit excessive for a guy that's just a backup.

 

You really don't have to squint to see an opportunity for a player to get a chance... especially if he can start hitting rather quickly.

Thats all there using Mcann for is backup catcher 17 starts all at catcher, Mayo does not play catcher.

[Sports Guy]

24 minutes ago, Matt Bennett said:

Eh. If you want to throw out Mateo's April, can we throw out Mateo's May too? Neither is reflective of the quality of hitter he is. 

2023 Mateo April: 1.062 OPS (not reflective)

2023 Mateo May: .316 OPS (not reflective)

2023 Mateo April and May combined: .659 OPS (very reflective) vs. Mateo Career: .639 OPS

Mateo 2023 vs. LHP: 108 wRC+ (keeping April and May)

Mateo 2023 vs. LHP from May 1st on: 78 wRC+ (removing April)

Mateo 2023 vs. LHP from June 1st on: 109 wRC+ (removing April and May)

Mateo vs. LHP from May 1st 2023 until present: 108 wRC+ 

So I think throwing out April while keeping May isn't giving him enough credit. Even throwing out April of 2023, he's been good against LHP since May 1st if you just extend the time range. He just can't be playing against RHP. That's where Holliday comes in.

 

I’m not throwing it out.  It happened. But it’s a clear outlier in his career. That is obvious. Usually outliers don’t re-occur.

[Matt Bennett]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m not throwing it out.  It happened. But it’s a clear outlier in his career. That is obvious. Usually outliers don’t re-occur.

Right. But May 2023 is also an outlier. Usually outliers don't re-occur. Put them together and you get typical Jorge Mateo.

Jorge Mateo vs. LHP since joining the Orioles back in 2021: 103 wRC+. With great defense. That's a contributor. 

He's just being asked to do something he's not. He should not be starting vs. RHP.  

[maybenxtyr]

26 minutes ago, Safelykept said:

Thats all there using Mcann for is backup catcher 17 starts all at catcher, Mayo does not play catcher.

If you don't think they are using McCann as an extra right handed bat against lefties, then I guess we are watching something different.