Could Giancarlo be the first non-steroid 500 HR player to not make the Hall of Fame?

[Frobby]

Dan Szymborski has an article up on Fangraphs discussing whether Giancarlo Stanton will make the Hall of Fame.  He says the average projection has Stanton finishing with 513 home runs (he has 411 now) but that unless something drastic changes, Szymborski wouldn’t vote for him.  

“Will it be enough to make it to Cooperstown? Short of a more impressive resurgence, I can’t see myself voting for Stanton. I just don’t think there’s enough separation between him and Nelson Cruz, though Stanton is aided by not having a PED suspension on his record. While I’m obviously more of a stathead than the average baseball writer, I expect the median Hall voter to be more statistically inclined in eight or nine years than they are now. ZiPS doesn’t project Stanton’s final JAWS score to budge by career-end, leaving him around 40th all-time among right fielders, in the neighborhood of players like Jack Clark, Rocky Colavito, Rusty Staub, and Dave Parker, none of whom came close to induction (though the Cobra hovered around 15% of the vote for 15 years). There’s always the Veterans Committee, but even I don’t like to attempt to project what that motley crew will do in any given year. Plus, the organization of the committee will probably be overhauled half a dozen times in the next 20 years.”

I’m inclined to agree with Szymborski, though the 500 HR club is still pretty exclusive (only 28 members currently) and the only members of that club not in the Hall either aren’t eligible yet (Pujols, Cabrera) or have steroid issues (Bonds, Rodriguez, Sosa, McGwire, Palmeiro, Ramirez, Sheffield).  I just feel Stanton has been too one-dimensional for too long to warrant induction even if he reaches the 500 homer plateau.

Thoughts?
 

Edited May 17 by Frobby

[Fiver6565]

I think the decline phase for Stanton came too soon and was too steep. I think it’s far from a guarantee he even gets to 500 home runs, though I suppose w/ that contract he’ll keep getting at bats so maybe. 
 

I’d vote no, but I think he makes it if he does get to 500. That number still carries weight even in a more analytical environment.

[Fiver6565]

I would also say being a Yankee will help him, if he does get to 500. A 500 HR hitter who hit a lot of those with the Yankees can book a ticket, in all likelihood 

[backwardsk]

He kind of reminds me of Andruw Jones. Puts up great numbers at a very early age and then declines sooner than most stars. Jones has about 20 more WAR than Stanton, so I don’t think he’ll catch him there. But getting to 500 is realistic. He’s averaged 30 per year the previous three seasons. He has three more guaranteed seasons after this. He’s 88 away and already has 10 this season. 
 

He needs to hit that round number to have any shot at the HOF. If he does get elected, I’d imagine he’d go in with the most sub 2 WAR seasons.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, backwardsk said:

He kind of reminds me of Andruw Jones. Puts up great numbers at a very early age and then declines sooner than most stars. Jones has about 20 more WAR than Stanton, so I don’t think he’ll catch him there. But getting to 500 is realistic. He’s averaged 30 per year the previous three seasons. He has three more guaranteed seasons after this. He’s 88 away and already has 10 this season. 
 

He needs to hit that round number to have any shot at the HOF. If he does get elected, I’d imagine he’d go in with the most sub 2 WAR seasons.

I doubt it.  Been some weird HoF inductions over the years.

Heck, look at the fWAR of former Oriole Hoyt Wilhelm.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/hoyt-wilhelm/1013945/stats?position=P

[backwardsk]

12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I doubt it.  Been some weird HoF inductions over the years.

Heck, look at the fWAR of former Oriole Hoyt Wilhelm.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/hoyt-wilhelm/1013945/stats?position=P

I guess I could caveat that with “guys who didn’t play a decade past their age 39 season.”

But as far as rWAR, Wilhelm had 6 sub 2 seasons. Stanton has 4 with 4 more seasons to go and only 1 season with more than 2 WAR in the past 5.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, backwardsk said:

I guess I could caveat that with “guys who didn’t play a decade past their age 39 season.”

But as far as rWAR, Wilhelm had 6 sub 2 seasons. Stanton has 4 with 4 more seasons to go and only 1 season with more than 2 WAR in the past 5.

Hoyt was just the first that came to mind.

How about Lloyd Waner?

George Kell?

Rube Marquard?

Former Oriole Harold Baines?

For the record I don't think Stanton makes it with or without 500 HR, not in today's HoF voting environment. 

[Just Regular]

A recent Szymborski chat had something on the relative BBWAA chapter sizes that was new to me.

He mentioned how Jay Jaffe's never had an awards vote because the New York chapter has about 113 members, and added at the other end of the spectrum Milwaukee is around 8.     Szymborski in the Cincinnati chapter was one of about 10 or so.

I believe these would be the hundreds of Cooperstown voters where Billy Wagner's trying to get that 75% percent but wouldn't have guessed the electorate might be almost ~20% New York chapter.