The Main Issue With The Orioles Offense and Approach is its Veteran Hitters - It's Time to Make Changes

[Brooks The Great]

We're at a point in the season where there's enough of a sample size to make some meaningful observations, and it's clear to me that the main issue of this year's Orioles team is the offense, specifically the team's inability to get on base, and the team's over-reliance on solo home runs to generate a bulk of its run production. Even more specifically, the team's veterans are the root of the offensive problem, and it's time to address the problem with roster changes and playing time adjustments.

 

As of today, the following are Orioles hitters on the current roster with an OBP below .300 in order of most at bats to least at bats:

 

Anthony Santander - .283

Ryan Mountcastle - .296

Cedric Mullins - .242

Jorge Mateo - .292

Brian McCann - .208

Austin Hays - .221

Ramon Urias - .226

 

Quite literally all of this team's underperforming hitters are the veterans with more than 3 years of MLB experience - Ryan O'Hearn (.349 OBP) is the only veteran hitter on the team with an OBP above .300. And O'Hearn hasn't been anything special at the plate recently, as he's produced a mediocre .641 OPS over the past 15 days. At his peak on April 16, O'Hearn stood at .333 AVG / .400 OBP / 1.089 OPS. His line is now .276 / .349 / .823 OPS, so to sink to that line, O'Hearn has hit poorly over the course of the past 5 weeks. 

 

All those hitters slumping and not working counts and drawing walks is directly responsible for our offensive slump recently, and it's why the team's offense is way too one-dimensional - relying mostly on solo home runs to win games. 

 

During the offseason, I took issue with Mike Elias keeping O'Hearn on this year's team because O'Hearn would be blocking multiple prospects such as Heston Kjerstad, Coby Mayo, Connor Norby, and Kyle Stowers at the DH spot. A more specific discussion on O'Hearn is better left for another thread, but it's a good place to mention that a solution to this offense's issues is to start significantly cutting playing time for the veterans, and give this team's prospects (specifically Kjerstad, Stowers, and Norby until Mayo is healthy) more of a legitimate opportunity for regular playing time. And to be clear, I'm not blaming O'Hearn specifically for the team's offensive struggles. He's clearly been one of the team's best hitters thus far and he uses an approach at the plate I wish more of the struggling older hitters would take a page from. But I do strongly believe Mike Elias shouldn't have brought him back this season because the team already had a logjam with its hitting prospects.

 

Moving onto the team's management, the way Mike Elias and Brandon Hyde handled Heston Kjerstad during his MLB stint this season was absolutely terrible. It was irresponsible to call up an elite power bat prospect (who was ripping up AAA pitching at the time) such as Kjerstad and have a player like that sit on the bench and rot, relegated to very irregular starts and pinch-hitting. Elias and Hyde are now making the same irresponsible mistake with Kyle Stowers, but it's time to start making some adjustments and learn from those roster management and player development errors. Play the young prospects.

 

I'd like to see Elias call up Kjerstad and Norby immediately, and relegate Mullins and Hays to strictly bench defensive outfield roles. Anthony Santander should also be platooned more and start seeing fewer at bats until he comes out of his slump (if he ever does), as he's had pronounced L/R splits this season. Santander has no future on this team past this season, so there's more incentive to cut his playing time in favor of a prospect who fits more into the long-term plans with this organization (or who can help build trade value for needed assets at the trade deadline).

 

Colton Cowser can slide over to CF and play there every day, while Kjerstad can be installed as the new everyday LF with Kyle Stowers getting regular at bats in RF against righties and some lefties. Connor Norby can get at bats as the DH against LHP whenever Adley isn't DHing, and Norby can also split some time in RF with Santander against LHP.

 

The O's will be sacrificing defense to do this, but Mike Elias and Brandon Hyde have never truly valued defense - they just claim to value it. Otherwise, they would have never stuck with Rougned Odor and Adam Frazier - two of the worst defensive 2B in baseball - for entire seasons. And they wouldn't let Ryan O'Hearn ever see the outfield, but they do. 

 

Most of the time, there's a defensive and offensive tradeoff for players. In this team's case, the offensive upside of our prospects warrant a look despite their defensive shortcomings. And the defensive value of the veterans (specifically Mullins and Hays) quite simply do not justify the cost of their abysmal offensive production. 

 

I believe strongly that Mullins and Hays are done as productive regulars, and if that's not the case, they can prove it in limited roles while Elias and Hyde get a look at players that are much more likely to be part of this team's future (or also possibly enhance their value as trade chips in certain cases). 

 

The younger players on this team have carried it offensively, and the MLB-ready prospects currently in the minors along with Stowers should get a long look to see if they can improve the offense's shortcomings and turn it into a truly elite offense. Giving regular reps to Kjerstad, Norby, Stowers, and eventually Mayo will also help them get acclimated to MLB pitching sooner, and put them in a better position to help the team in the playoffs.

 

I hope to see Elias make some significant changes soon, and have Hyde move away from the vets. This team is sorely in need of it.

[dtk9119]

Elias can start the course correction tonight and this weekend by starting Stowers. After the way he performed in limited ABs in STL, he deserves it.

[lfallo1]

"The O's will be sacrificing defense to do this, but Mike Elias and Brandon Hyde have never truly valued defense - they just claim to value it. Otherwise, they would have never stuck with Rougned Odor and Adam Frazier - two of the worst defensive 2B in baseball - for entire seasons. And they wouldn't let Ryan O'Hearn ever see the outfield, but they do. "

I will admit, the holier-than-thou responses from Hyde/Elias around the D, when facts point otherwise, is annoying 

[Bleed Orange]

I too am ready to move on from Mullins, Hays and to platoon Santander. Gotta get the young guys some ABs before the postseason. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

2 minutes ago, Bleed Orange said:

I too am ready to move on from Mullins, Hays and to platoon Santander. Gotta get the young guys some ABs before the postseason. 

That's why I want to see the changes made soon the team can't wait until August and then tell a bunch of rookies to step up in a pennant race. Mullins is still going to play due to him being the best defensive CF on the team, but we've reached a point where his deficiencies on offense can no longer be ignored. 

And with that Mullins should not be starting every game unless his woes at the plate get straightened out. I think Elias needs to be on the lookout for a player who can play CF and hit better than what Mullins has been doing since July 1st last season. 

[interloper]

You have to think Elias and Sig can see the writing on the wall. They haven't been afraid to make changes in the past and it's really getting to be about time. Can't just continue to shrug and hope for the best. 

Certainly if the White Sox take our lunch money, I would think heads are going to start to roll. 

[jabba72]

5 minutes ago, Bleed Orange said:

I too am ready to move on from Mullins, Hays and to platoon Santander. Gotta get the young guys some ABs before the postseason. 

Im expecting Elias to wait until July before doing anything like benching the entire OF. Agree these guys aren't having very good seasons. 

[Yossarian]

38 minutes ago, Brooks The Great said:

We're at a point in the season where there's enough of a sample size to make some meaningful observations, and it's clear to me that the main issue of this year's Orioles team is the offense, specifically the team's inability to get on base, and the team's over-reliance on solo home runs to generate a bulk of its run production. Even more specifically, the team's veterans are the root of the offensive problem, and it's time to address the problem with roster changes and playing time adjustments.

 

As of today, the following are Orioles hitters on the current roster with an OBP below .300 in order of most at bats to least at bats:

 

Anthony Santander - .283

Ryan Mountcastle - .296

Cedric Mullins - .242

Jorge Mateo - .292

Brian McCann - .208

Austin Hays - .221

Ramon Urias - .226

 

Quite literally all of this team's underperforming hitters are the veterans with more than 3 years of MLB experience - Ryan O'Hearn (.349 OBP) is the only veteran hitter on the team with an OBP above .300. And O'Hearn hasn't been anything special at the plate recently, as he's produced a mediocre .641 OPS over the past 15 days. At his peak on April 16, O'Hearn stood at .333 AVG / .400 OBP / 1.089 OPS. His line is now .276 / .349 / .823 OPS, so to sink to that line, O'Hearn has hit poorly over the course of the past 5 weeks. 

 

All those hitters slumping and not working counts and drawing walks is directly responsible for our offensive slump recently, and it's why the team's offense is way too one-dimensional - relying mostly on solo home runs to win games. 

 

During the offseason, I took issue with Mike Elias keeping O'Hearn on this year's team because O'Hearn would be blocking multiple prospects such as Heston Kjerstad, Coby Mayo, Connor Norby, and Kyle Stowers at the DH spot. A more specific discussion on O'Hearn is better left for another thread, but it's a good place to mention that a solution to this offense's issues is to start significantly cutting playing time for the veterans, and give this team's prospects (specifically Kjerstad, Stowers, and Norby until Mayo is healthy) more of a legitimate opportunity for regular playing time. And to be clear, I'm not blaming O'Hearn specifically for the team's offensive struggles. He's clearly been one of the team's best hitters thus far and he uses an approach at the plate I wish more of the struggling older hitters would take a page from. But I do strongly believe Mike Elias shouldn't have brought him back this season because the team already had a logjam with its hitting prospects.

 

Moving onto the team's management, the way Mike Elias and Brandon Hyde handled Heston Kjerstad during his MLB stint this season was absolutely terrible. It was irresponsible to call up an elite power bat prospect (who was ripping up AAA pitching at the time) such as Kjerstad and have a player like that sit on the bench and rot, relegated to very irregular starts and pinch-hitting. Elias and Hyde are now making the same irresponsible mistake with Kyle Stowers, but it's time to start making some adjustments and learn from those roster management and player development errors. Play the young prospects.

 

I'd like to see Elias call up Kjerstad and Norby immediately, and relegate Mullins and Hays to strictly bench defensive outfield roles. Anthony Santander should also be platooned more and start seeing fewer at bats until he comes out of his slump (if he ever does), as he's had pronounced L/R splits this season. Santander has no future on this team past this season, so there's more incentive to cut his playing time in favor of a prospect who fits more into the long-term plans with this organization (or who can help build trade value for needed assets at the trade deadline).

 

Colton Cowser can slide over to CF and play there every day, while Kjerstad can be installed as the new everyday LF with Kyle Stowers getting regular at bats in RF against righties and some lefties. Connor Norby can get at bats as the DH against LHP whenever Adley isn't DHing, and Norby can also split some time in RF with Santander against LHP.

 

The O's will be sacrificing defense to do this, but Mike Elias and Brandon Hyde have never truly valued defense - they just claim to value it. Otherwise, they would have never stuck with Rougned Odor and Adam Frazier - two of the worst defensive 2B in baseball - for entire seasons. And they wouldn't let Ryan O'Hearn ever see the outfield, but they do. 

 

Most of the time, there's a defensive and offensive tradeoff for players. In this team's case, the offensive upside of our prospects warrant a look despite their defensive shortcomings. And the defensive value of the veterans (specifically Mullins and Hays) quite simply do not justify the cost of their abysmal offensive production. 

 

I believe strongly that Mullins and Hays are done as productive regulars, and if that's not the case, they can prove it in limited roles while Elias and Hyde get a look at players that are much more likely to be part of this team's future (or also possibly enhance their value as trade chips in certain cases). 

 

The younger players on this team have carried it offensively, and the MLB-ready prospects currently in the minors along with Stowers should get a long look to see if they can improve the offense's shortcomings and turn it into a truly elite offense. Giving regular reps to Kjerstad, Norby, Stowers, and eventually Mayo will also help them get acclimated to MLB pitching sooner, and put them in a better position to help the team in the playoffs.

 

I hope to see Elias make some significant changes soon, and have Hyde move away from the vets. This team is sorely in need of it.

I agree that it is not fair to the young prospects to get called up and not give them a chance to prove themselves. 

Having said that, they did call up the number one prospect in baseball and gave him plenty of chance to prove himself and he fell in his face and proved he wasn't ready for regular time at that level. 

Hyde and Elias have the tough task of working their top prospects into the major league ball club while also trying to keep pace with the Yankees and earn a playoff spot.  There is not a lot of time for patience and development at the MLB level.   The window to win is now. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Yossarian said:

I agree that it is not fair to the young prospects to get called up and not give them a chance to prove themselves. 

Having said that, they did call up the number one prospect in baseball and gave him plenty of chance to prove himself and he fell in his face and proved he wasn't ready for regular time at that level. 

Hyde and Elias have the tough task of working their top prospects into the major league ball club while also trying to keep pace with the Yankees and earn a playoff spot.  There is not a lot of time for patience and development at the MLB level.   The window to win is now. 

I'll still argue that 34 at bats is not "plenty of chance".

[RavensNOsGuy]

12 minutes ago, interloper said:

You have to think Elias and Sig can see the writing on the wall. They haven't been afraid to make changes in the past and it's really getting to be about time. Can't just continue to shrug and hope for the best. 

Certainly if the White Sox take our lunch money, I would think heads are going to start to roll. 

Glad we are playing them this weekend. Either we turn it around or if we don’t for some reason, then heads should role and some changes be made. There won’t be an excuse of we’re facing good teams or whatever. 

[.500_OR_BETTER]

These guys are automatic outs - changes need to be made now.

• Hays - .148
• Mullins - .191
• Urias - .186
• Santander - .206
• McCann - .208

[Moose Milligan]

13 minutes ago, interloper said:

You have to think Elias and Sig can see the writing on the wall. They haven't been afraid to make changes in the past and it's really getting to be about time. Can't just continue to shrug and hope for the best. 

Certainly if the White Sox take our lunch money, I would think heads are going to start to roll. 

Or, maybe...just maybe, they've got access to information that we don't that suggests that these guys can turn it around.  

That's probably not possible....after all, we know everything, just ask us!

And while I don't disagree with the OP, the whining and moaning when Norby comes up and doesn't hit right away, when Mayo doesn't hit right away (sorry, @Roy Firestone) will be just as insufferable as watching Mullins pop up and roll grounders over to the right side. 

Because, after all, we can't just bring rookies up and have them mash right away, at least that's what I've been told since Rutsch came up and didn't impress right away and Gunnar's extended cool streak to start 2023, followed by Cowser's initial struggles last year and Holliday looking completely inept this year.

So I'm supposed to believe Norby's an answer?

Don't get me wrong, I'd prefer to give the playing time to guys who are looked at as future pieces, but it's either ride out struggling vets or go with youth while we're in the middle of a season where we're supposed to make the playoffs.  And looking at it from that perspective, there's no doubt in my mind as to what's going to happen.  We'll get Kjerstad, Mayo, Norby, whoever else...we'll get them called up but they're going to ride the pine for most of the time they're here.  

If you think otherwise, you've got your hopes up and haven't been paying attention, IMO.  

Today's lineup has Santander and Mullins.  More of the same.

[Orioles0615]

42 minutes ago, dtk9119 said:

Elias can start the course correction tonight and this weekend by starting Stowers. After the way he performed in limited ABs in STL, he deserves it.

Nah Santander has to at cleanup 

[Orioles0615]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

Or, maybe...just maybe, they've got access to information that we don't that suggests that these guys can turn it around.  

That's probably not possible....after all, we know everything, just ask us!

And while I don't disagree with the OP, the whining and moaning when Norby comes up and doesn't hit right away, when Mayo doesn't hit right away (sorry, @Roy Firestone) will be just as insufferable as watching Mullins pop up and roll grounders over to the right side. 

Because, after all, we can't just bring rookies up and have them mash right away, at least that's what I've been told since Rutsch came up and didn't impress right away and Gunnar's extended cool streak to start 2023, followed by Cowser's initial struggles last year and Holliday looking completely inept this year.

So I'm supposed to believe Norby's an answer?

Don't get me wrong, I'd prefer to give the playing time to guys who are looked at as future pieces, but it's either ride out struggling vets or go with youth while we're in the middle of a season where we're supposed to make the playoffs.  And looking at it from that perspective, there's no doubt in my mind as to what's going to happen.  We'll get Kjerstad, Mayo, Norby, whoever else...we'll get them called up but they're going to ride the pine for most of the time they're here.  

If you think otherwise, you've got your hopes up and haven't been paying attention, IMO.  

Today's lineup has Santander and Mullins.  More of the same.

 

 

"Or, maybe...just maybe, they've got access to information that we don't that suggests that these guys can turn it around.  "

 

 

People always say this like there are some secret stats that aren't public. We can see all the same stats they see and see the same video they see. The things we don't see are what they use to make adjustments, like the new fancy pitching machine they have that can simulate any pitcher. But we can also see the results, and right now they aren't getting good results. 

[dtk9119]

Uncle Mike, Sig, and Brandon learned NOTHING from the last few days based on tonight's line up. No Stowers. Santander still batting clean up.. Same ol same ol.. let's just keep running it back over and over.