The Main Issue With The Orioles Offense and Approach is its Veteran Hitters - It's Time to Make Changes

[RZNJ]

There’s nothing like a 3 game losing streak.  

[MCO'sFan]

13 minutes ago, Orioles0615 said:

 

 

"Or, maybe...just maybe, they've got access to information that we don't that suggests that these guys can turn it around.  "

 

 

People always say this like there are some secret stats that aren't public. We can see all the same stats they see and see the same video they see. The things we don't see are what they use to make adjustments, like the new fancy pitching machine they have that can simulate any pitcher. But we can also see the results, and right now they aren't getting good results. 

I'm pretty sure that ML coaches and analysts and 99% of OH posters can look at the same video and live ABs and they each see dramatically different things. No offence to OH posters but let's not pretend that they can breakdown video'/live ABs like a pro. 

[Moose Milligan]

23 minutes ago, Orioles0615 said:

People always say this like there are some secret stats that aren't public.  

They had access to the bat swing stuff that Statcast dropped two weeks ago last year.

So, yeah.

[Moose Milligan]

16 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

There’s nothing like a 3 game losing streak.  

I agree, the chicken littles are out in force. 

But no one can deny how bad a good chunk of our lineup has looked, winning or losing.  

 

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Brooks The Great said:

We're at a point in the season where there's enough of a sample size to make some meaningful observations, and it's clear to me that the main issue of this year's Orioles team is the offense, specifically the team's inability to get on base, and the team's over-reliance on solo home runs to generate a bulk of its run production. Even more specifically, the team's veterans are the root of the offensive problem, and it's time to address the problem with roster changes and playing time adjustments.

 

As of today, the following are Orioles hitters on the current roster with an OBP below .300 in order of most at bats to least at bats:

 

Anthony Santander - .283

Ryan Mountcastle - .296

Cedric Mullins - .242

Jorge Mateo - .292

Brian McCann - .208

Austin Hays - .221

Ramon Urias - .226

 

Quite literally all of this team's underperforming hitters are the veterans with more than 3 years of MLB experience - Ryan O'Hearn (.349 OBP) is the only veteran hitter on the team with an OBP above .300. And O'Hearn hasn't been anything special at the plate recently, as he's produced a mediocre .641 OPS over the past 15 days. At his peak on April 16, O'Hearn stood at .333 AVG / .400 OBP / 1.089 OPS. His line is now .276 / .349 / .823 OPS, so to sink to that line, O'Hearn has hit poorly over the course of the past 5 weeks. 

 

All those hitters slumping and not working counts and drawing walks is directly responsible for our offensive slump recently, and it's why the team's offense is way too one-dimensional - relying mostly on solo home runs to win games. 

 

During the offseason, I took issue with Mike Elias keeping O'Hearn on this year's team because O'Hearn would be blocking multiple prospects such as Heston Kjerstad, Coby Mayo, Connor Norby, and Kyle Stowers at the DH spot. A more specific discussion on O'Hearn is better left for another thread, but it's a good place to mention that a solution to this offense's issues is to start significantly cutting playing time for the veterans, and give this team's prospects (specifically Kjerstad, Stowers, and Norby until Mayo is healthy) more of a legitimate opportunity for regular playing time. And to be clear, I'm not blaming O'Hearn specifically for the team's offensive struggles. He's clearly been one of the team's best hitters thus far and he uses an approach at the plate I wish more of the struggling older hitters would take a page from. But I do strongly believe Mike Elias shouldn't have brought him back this season because the team already had a logjam with its hitting prospects.

 

Moving onto the team's management, the way Mike Elias and Brandon Hyde handled Heston Kjerstad during his MLB stint this season was absolutely terrible. It was irresponsible to call up an elite power bat prospect (who was ripping up AAA pitching at the time) such as Kjerstad and have a player like that sit on the bench and rot, relegated to very irregular starts and pinch-hitting. Elias and Hyde are now making the same irresponsible mistake with Kyle Stowers, but it's time to start making some adjustments and learn from those roster management and player development errors. Play the young prospects.

 

I'd like to see Elias call up Kjerstad and Norby immediately, and relegate Mullins and Hays to strictly bench defensive outfield roles. Anthony Santander should also be platooned more and start seeing fewer at bats until he comes out of his slump (if he ever does), as he's had pronounced L/R splits this season. Santander has no future on this team past this season, so there's more incentive to cut his playing time in favor of a prospect who fits more into the long-term plans with this organization (or who can help build trade value for needed assets at the trade deadline).

 

Colton Cowser can slide over to CF and play there every day, while Kjerstad can be installed as the new everyday LF with Kyle Stowers getting regular at bats in RF against righties and some lefties. Connor Norby can get at bats as the DH against LHP whenever Adley isn't DHing, and Norby can also split some time in RF with Santander against LHP.

 

The O's will be sacrificing defense to do this, but Mike Elias and Brandon Hyde have never truly valued defense - they just claim to value it. Otherwise, they would have never stuck with Rougned Odor and Adam Frazier - two of the worst defensive 2B in baseball - for entire seasons. And they wouldn't let Ryan O'Hearn ever see the outfield, but they do. 

 

Most of the time, there's a defensive and offensive tradeoff for players. In this team's case, the offensive upside of our prospects warrant a look despite their defensive shortcomings. And the defensive value of the veterans (specifically Mullins and Hays) quite simply do not justify the cost of their abysmal offensive production. 

 

I believe strongly that Mullins and Hays are done as productive regulars, and if that's not the case, they can prove it in limited roles while Elias and Hyde get a look at players that are much more likely to be part of this team's future (or also possibly enhance their value as trade chips in certain cases). 

 

The younger players on this team have carried it offensively, and the MLB-ready prospects currently in the minors along with Stowers should get a long look to see if they can improve the offense's shortcomings and turn it into a truly elite offense. Giving regular reps to Kjerstad, Norby, Stowers, and eventually Mayo will also help them get acclimated to MLB pitching sooner, and put them in a better position to help the team in the playoffs.

 

I hope to see Elias make some significant changes soon, and have Hyde move away from the vets. This team is sorely in need of it.

Mullins and Santander are too valuable when healthy to be demoted. I think you are underrating defense and likely overestimating the ability of rookies impacting right away. Playing a bunch of rookies at new positions would probably cause us a bunch of new frustrations. 

I would like to see Stowers mixed in more but we shouldn't get rid of anyone yet. I do think anyone who isn't healthy should go on the IL--maybe Santander? 

 

[Spy Fox]

Odds are that some of the names in OP's list are going to turn it around, and some may just be having down years or full-on career downturns. Trouble is, we don't know which is which. Elias & Co. can't really know either. Though they're in the best position of anyone to make educated guesses. 

[RZNJ]

13 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I agree, the chicken littles are out in force. 

But no one can deny how bad a good chunk of our lineup has looked, winning or losing.  

 

Sure, and I’m not against some of the ideas even but the post comes across as emotional and reactionary.  They didn’t care about defense with Frazier so defense be damned.   The 3 seasons prior to joining the Orioles Frazier had an OAA of +5, +2, and a +6 in 2022.  They thought they were getting a plus or at least average 2B.

He had 91, 104, and 79 PA the first 3 months.  Because of his poor defense, he lost time to Westburg in the 2nd half and got 63, 52, and 66 PA over the last 3 months.  Frazier had an .871 OPS in July so he didn’t lose playing time because of his offense.  It was because of his defense.  Don’t let the facts ruin a good story, Brooksie.

[Malike]

We have so many people who are much more qualified to lead this team on this board than Elias and Hyde. There is a real untapped resource for MLB here, they could replace most of the front offices and managers with posters in this thread alone and be much better off for it. Someone should leak the news to MLB.

Every teams fans whine about the manager and front office, even more so when they lose a few games.

[RZNJ]

Kyle Stowers was hitting .240 with an OBP of .315 in AAA but with a bunch of home runs.    So, we’re going to improve the OBP by replacing Santander with Stowers?    

Edited May 23 by RZNJ

[wildcard]

The timing of this thread is curious.    The O's are about to play 4 games against the worst team in MLB.    If everything that is talked about in this thread is still happening on Sunday evening, then is the time for some serious  thought about these issues IMO.

[Malike]

5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Kyle Stowers was hitting .240 with an OBP of .315 in AAA but with a bunch of home runs.    So, we’re going to improve the OBP by replacing Santander with Stowers?    

All of that with watered down pitching in AAA.

[RZNJ]

This doesn’t seem well thought out.

 

“Colton Cowser can slide over to CF and play there every day, while Kjerstad can be installed as the new everyday LF with Kyle Stowers getting regular at bats in RF against righties and some lefties. Connor Norby can get at bats as the DH against LHP whenever Adley isn't DHing, and Norby can also split some time in RF with Santander against LHP.”

 

If I read this right, Kyle Sowers is the new RF and he gets ABs against all RHP and some LHp.  Connor Norby can also play RF against some LHP.  So that leaves Santander with the other AB against LHP.    So, the guy with the 1.000 OPS against LHP is going to have his AB against LHP decreased.  That’ll show him.  That’s the punishment for slumping against RHP.

[Spy Fox]

17 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The timing of this thread is curious.    The O's are about to play 4 games against the worst team in MLB.    If everything that is talked about in this thread is still happening on Sunday evening, then is the time for some serious  thought about these issues IMO.

5+ ERAs from the opposing SP's tonight and tomorrow. Would really like to see the offense break out. 

Saturday and Sunday's SPs (Fedde, Crochet) are having solid seasons.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

33 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

Odds are that some of the names in OP's list are going to turn it around, and some may just be having down years or full-on career downturns. Trouble is, we don't know which is which. Elias & Co. can't really know either. Though they're in the best position of anyone to make educated guesses. 

I think Santander will straightened himself out and hopefully one of Mullins and Hays do the same. But Hays and Mullins are going since last July now slumping at the plate.

[Yossarian]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

There’s nothing like a 3 game losing streak.  

It's something to talk about