The 2024 Trade Deadline

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, SteveA said:

He said he wouldn't pitch in the playoffs without a contract extension.

You think he isn't going to expect what top MLB pitchers are getting, given his strikeout rate and other numbers?   

The point is, that for a player of his experience, there is a normal arbitration process, and he clearly wants more of a guarantee than that.   Obviously it's his right to ask that, but when part of his value is the fact that he is under team control for 2.5 seasons, basically saying you won't pitch in the playoffs unless a team commits beyond that immediately makes him less valuable.    Cavaet emptor.

 

I know I just said some of this but this is new.

I don't think he's expecting the type of contract he'd be getting as a free agent.

He's not a free agent until 2027 and I expect that if he signs an extension that it would reflect that fact.

I'm sure he's worried that if he blows his arm out pitching in October the team will go Hey thanks, bye. 

 

*I'm not suggesting that he's not done a terrible job of handling this*

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

2.11 FIP, 2.43 xFIP, 2.61 xERA his LOB% is 15-20% low and will eventually correct itself. He's nails as a reliever.

 

1 minute ago, clapdiddy said:

Good pickup for the Yankees.   

Yep.  They got better.

[LookinUp]

3 hours ago, interloper said:

In a season where we need so much at the deadline, it's just really hard to actually get everything you need with so much competition for arms. 

 

2 hours ago, bluedog said:

I expect us to be players in FA next year and for years to come with the new ownership. Rubenstein is not going to shy away from a $200M+ payroll.

Let's hope so. This team obviously needed another arm or two in the preseason. You see a team like Tampa sign guys and then trade them to fill the system. There are Kyle Gibson types available in FA every year. It kills me that we didn't go that route this past offseason.

[Can_of_corn]

 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

 

I don't think he's going to be asking to sign a 10 year deal.

I don't think he's going to be asking for 20M a year.

Maybe he will be, but he might just be looking for a reasonable extension for someone with his level of service time.

This has occurred to me as well, and I think it makes him an even more interesting target for us. It's definitely a gamble, but you might end up with a controllable ace at well under market rate for some would-be FA years.

[LookinUp]

42 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I wonder if teams ever do deals but wait to finalize them until the last minute to minimize reactive moves by their competitors.   

I think this is unlikely. You make a deal, but don't execute it, and you give another team time to beat that deal. 

I think that it's more likely that many teams just milk everything they can until the deadline, at which point they take the best deal on the table.

[webbrick2010]

Yankees in it to win division and go to WS

O's/Elias not so much

[Just Regular]

After Eflin, I think our Tyler Anderson odds are down.      His 2025 salary is about 70% of Eflin's but I don't think he offers near that upside.

I don't think we'll keep Kimbrel, but for the team I hope the 2025 Orioles are, someone like Kimbrel is a better fit.

Tyler Anderson would cannibalize Cade Povich's role early 2025 pretty good.

[LGOrioles]

I would be happy with a Flaherty/Canha package. 

[e16bball]

2 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

2.11 FIP, 2.43 xFIP, 2.61 xERA his LOB% is 15-20% low and will eventually correct itself. He's nails as a reliever.

Fair take, although this year’s peripheral based metrics are the outlier in his profile. 

2024 ERA, 2023 ERA, 2023 peripherals, 2022 ERA, 2022 peripherals all pretty much live in the upper 3s, low 4s neighborhood. 

Perhaps something has clicked for him at 33 — it certainly does happen — and it’s just not showing up in the results. But I think it’s just as possible that we’re talking about a 30-inning span where he’s had a few more outings than usual with the good splitter. 

Still, the numbers you cite underline why it’s a worthy bet for NYY. Wish they’d gone elsewhere (just not to MIA).

[Just Regular]

3 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I think this is unlikely. You make a deal, but don't execute it, and you give another team time to beat that deal. 

I think that it's more likely that many teams just milk everything they can until the deadline, at which point they take the best deal on the table.

I don't think you can get your trade partner to share in the ruse.

Elias could however hold the real max offer he'd make for Skubal until 5:50.

Scott Fisher has no incentive to help him with any stealth blockbuster these 4 hours.

[ChicagoTerp]

1 minute ago, Just Regular said:

Tyler Anderson would cannibalize Cade Povich's role early 2025 pretty good.

God willing!

[RVAOsFan]

Here come the trades 

[interloper]

3 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Yankees in it to win division and go to WS

O's/Elias not so much

Why, because the Yankees got Jazz and Leiter while we got Eflin and Dominguez? 

What a silly comment. 

[oriolediehard]

If we want to finish 1st ahead of the Yankees, we need to make a couple of major moves!!  What is frustrating is the Yankees get what the O's need with mid-level prospects.  The Yankees super hype their prospects!  They have always hyped up their farm system, which is only average. They deceive teams!!!